1/7/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Winter Championship Series Finals day

1 Extreme Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks himself here. Sydney raider for Gary Portelli that resumes after a two run Autumn prep, winning on debut and beating Mafia comfortably on the Kenso before being outclassed in the Skyline and was spelled. Given a good break and has looked to trial up super in readiness for the return. Melham on a good lead, he’ll do me.

2 Mafia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell. Team Snowden trained colt that beat up an average bunch fresh at Wyong before going to Sandown where he was near the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Links, finishing third, beaten a length. I reckon his best chance of winning here will be if they lead and let him roll with the hard fitness/experience under the belt.

3 Spring Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Gavin Bedggood after racing last Saturday at Caulfield where he was several weeks off from the debut win at Sale and just looked a bit ring rusty when down the track behind Outback Miss, who looks a nice filly, so I think that form can be trusted and the depth here, as a whole isn’t as strong.

2 Pacific Ruby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare for Maher/Eustace. She is 5/5 since joining the stable, the latest win coming a few weeks ago at Sandown where she was first up and seemingly looked gone 200m out but she surged hard late and ended up being strongest to the line in winning. Can only see upside/improvement to come and with that in mind, she is clearly hard to beat.

1 Seonee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to rock and roll for Patrick Payne and is hard to beat. This mare has won her past two, winning two back over 1200m at Mornington in impressive fashion before going to this track/distance two weeks ago where the market loved her late and under a peach from Egan, she was dominant late and ran fast late splits. Hard to knock the way she’s racing.

6 Silverina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Former Kiwi mare that makes her Australian debut for Liam Howley. She hasn’t raced since December third in a solid Group ll race at Te Rapa over the mile so she has a bit of quality to her form and with solid trial work under the belt, I think she comes here to run well so watch the market.

4 Acierto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a colt that has talent. Busuttin/Young trains this son of Not A Single Doubt, that comes into this off the back of a win over 1500m at Mornington at the midweeks. He was tucked in behind the speed throughout under Shinn before angling into clear, going through his gears and he was quite dominant late. Beat much? No, but he was strong to/through the line so 1600m is no issue and seemingly has a good racing style.

3 Sunsource (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the obvious danger in the race with Steparty coming out. The well bred colt has been racing in tougher company than what he meets here and has the experience on his side. He has had a few excuses at his last two starts and should be right in the finish in the small field.

6 Dolphin Skin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t really know what she is doing but I think she has an engine under the hood. She has bumped into Steparty in both career runs, the latest being two weeks back when wide throughout and while she was never threatening, I didn’t mind the way she found the line late in the piece. Not sure she wins, but she can fill a first four spot.

2 Rolls (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he has been set for the race. He won the Warrnambool Cup four back and in three subsequent runs, he has steadily got back up to a staying trip, the latest run being over 2540m here a fortnight back where he kept finding the line and you can make a case that he goes close to winning if he runs straight when a narrow second. Hard fit, in form, he appeals.

6 Teewaters (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lacks any real turn of foot but the 2600m will be no issue for him. He ran in the Port Guillaume race from two weeks back and in what turned out to be a proper staying contest, I thought he stayed on well enough to run third, beaten just under three lengths, but the effort was more than solid. Could I back him to win? No, but he is a must for exotics.

9 Mimi’s Award (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rarely runs poorly in races like this. Team Hayes trained stayer that comes through the Strawberry Rock race from three weeks back at Sandown. She drew inside and wasn’t far away throughout but just lacked the change up speed to go with them late behind the Maher/Eustace import. Think if this becomes a slog, she comes into play.

12 Extratwo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a smart filly for Maher/Eustace. 2/2 this time in, bolting up with purpose fresh in a Kyneton maiden before proving that was no fluke with a dominant win over 1300m at Sandown. Back to 1200m and taking on the boys is no issue for me given the race, as a whole, is thin, and I think she goes pretty good.

5 Legio Ten (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a super job this time in and rates as one of the leading contenders. He is 2/2 this time in, winning fresh at Bendigo before racing down the straight here a few weeks back when back off the speed before cutting back inside and in a driving finish, was able to get the job done. Not easy to make it three wins on the bounce but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

Very interesting runner is 1 Tijuana (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions Guineas in January where he just didn’t fire a shot and was pretty plain behind Fashion Legend. Been given a good break, he’s jumped out well leading in…if he brings his best, he wins, but it’s a big query. Watch the market and see what it does.

5 Verifier (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was bursting to win a race for Nigel Blackiston and it finally came over 2000m here four weeks ago, sitting back near last but was tracking up with purpose before Downey angled wider into better ground and in a driving finish, he got the job done. The way he finds the line, 2500m is fine and the break between runs I don’t mind, hopefully ensuring he has fresh legs.

1 First Immortal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a while but is seemingly holding his form really well. Too bad to be true two back behind Verifier before going to the Flemington 2000m again a fortnight back where he bounced back under a peach steer from Luke Campbell, getting the sweet sit behind the speed and finished best. 2500m is a query, but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

4 My Brothers Keeper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 2500m for Stephen Brown. He’s had three 2000m runs under the belt, the latest being two weeks back here where he got back to near last in the run and spotted those in front way too much head start but really liked the way he found the line when third to First Immortal. If he can settle closer and be within range, he can finish over the top.

3 It’sourtime (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the 1400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead. That run came a few weeks back here where I thought McNeil gave him a 12/10 ride and was there to win but the end of 1400m just found him out when a narrow fourth to King Magnus, beaten a length. Now he has that 1400m run, he should be stronger at the end.

9 Pizarro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) makes his way from Sydney to Melbourne for the first time and should be hard to beat if he can bring that here. He has gone close at his two starts this preparation where he has had excuses. He is arguably the class horse of the field and if he can handle the Melbourne way of going he will be hard to hold out.

8 Pal D’Oro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was disappointing at Sandown last start but his run in the Chester Manifold before that was very good. He will sit on speed and make his own luck and if he can get a few cheap sectionals I think he will be hard to run down at the price.

12 Unusual Culture (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has really found her groove this time in for Maher/Eustace and confident she can measure up. She got a sweet sit in transit two weeks ago at this track/distance under Hefel before angling into clear in the straight and credit to her, she was there to be beaten by Brayden Star but on the line, she was safely holding Brayden Star. Off that win, I think she’ll run a beauty against this lot.

8 Our Playboy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is somewhat of an enigma but he’s generally around the mark at this level. Down the track two back at this track/distance before going to 1400m here two weeks ago, several weeks between runs, and stuck to the task well enough in defeat behind the very much in form Not An Option. Like him at the mile and has good room for improvement. Dangerous.

10 Bullfinch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat here for Chris Waller. He’s had two runs back from a spell, both at 1400m here, the latest being a fortnight back where he closed off strongly from off the speed, but was no match late for Not An Option. With two 1400m runs under the belt, 1600m is ideal now, can settle closer and prove hard to hold out.

3 Hard To Cross (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. His opening two runs for the prep were a bit on the suspect side so Patrick Payne sent him to the trials to see where he was at and the end result is that he’s back because he was a strong winner three weeks ago over the mile at Sandown, just getting the win over Golden Path. He can go on with it here.

9 Golden Path (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice horse for Price/Kent. There was a bit of quality about his debut win at Pakenham before going to the mile at Sandown three weeks ago where he was just off the speed and found the line, but just couldn’t quite get the win when a narrow second to Hard To Cross. He has more upside than most and with the 1600m run under the belt, he appeals.

5 Lethal Thoughts (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is not far off an end of prep run but if he holds his form, he is certainly going to be thereabouts. He ran three weeks back behind Hard To Cross at Sandown where he got back in the run and made up solid ground without threatening, beaten four lengths in a solid effort. Think if he can settle a pair or two closer in the run, he’s good enough to win.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Verifier

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 12 Extratwo

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 3 Hard To Cross

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 3, 4, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 10, 12

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 9

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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