The Royal Ascot Carnival reaches its conclusion on Saturday with a strong card, headlined by Redkirk Warrior taking his place in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes (1200m) alongside Merchant Navy.
Race 1. (23:30) Chesham Stakes 1400m
Think we can start the meeting on the right note via 10 Natalie’s Joy (Bet Now: $2.37) , who was nominated for earlier in the Carnival but the stable elects to run here. She debuted just under a month back at Goodwood where she chased the tearaway leader before gathering that in rather quickly and her turn of foot when asked was outstanding. Confident she goes very close to winning.
9 Beyond Reason (Bet Now: $7.00) is an Australia filly for Charlie Appleby who was good on debut behind New Winds at Newmarket before going to Kempton where she was expected to win and under William Buick, she led all the way and did it rather comfortably. Looks a really good type and should take some beating.
5 Nate The Great (Bet Now: $15.00) is an Archie Watson trained colt who has had one start for one win, which came just over a fortnight back at Carlisle where he sat midfield with cover before angling into the clear and once the button was pushed, he showed a lovely turn of foot and was sharp on the line. Inferior form, but looks a good type.
Race 2. Hardwicke Stakes 2400m
Hard to get away from 3 Crystal Ocean (Bet Now: $1.50). Two runs back from a break for Sir Michael Stoute have been outstanding, firstly resuming at Sandown before taking care of them quite comfortably at Newbury, both wins seeing him steered by Ryan Moore. His three year old form was outstanding and I think he’s clearly the horse to beat.
4 Idaho (Bet Now: $6.00) won this race last year and is looking to defend his title. He has had three runs this time in, including a down the track effort behind Hawkbill. He beat that horse home in the Coronation Cup behind Cracksman but was beaten comfortably. Looks to be a sense of timing about this horse and he has the Aidan O’Brien polish.
1 Barsanti (Bet Now: $6.00) looks third best. Roger Varian trains this bloke, who ran here over a month back at this track/distance in a Listed race where he started fav and under Andrea Atzeni he had to dig in late but his class came to the fore when it mattered. More depth here, but he’s tough and will stay all day.
Race 3. Windsor Castle Stakes 1000m
27 Moonlight Romance (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Wesley Ward trained filly who has had two career outings, debuting with a game second over 900m at Keeneland before going to the 1000m at Belmont just around a month back and I don’t think she beat much, but the manner in which she did it was sharp, winning as if it was a barrier trial. Confident she runs well.
28 Queen Of Bermuda (Bet Now: $6.50) is a daughter of Exceed And Excel for Willie Haggas who has won two from three, winning her last two outings, the latest at Windsor. Admittedly she found the outside rail, which was the best ground, but she did it very well. Bit more depth here, but she’s quite likeable.
25 World Order (Bet Now: $67.00) is a runner up in both career outings for the Carroll yard. Debuted with a second at Doncaster before going to York over this trip where he chased the speed all the way but kept finding and for a couple of strides look the winner but just couldn’t quite finish it off. I think with a sit from the draw, he can threaten.
Race 4. Diamond Jubilee Stakes 1200m
I think this race is all about 9 Redkirk Warrior (Bet Now: $5.00) and where he is at, how well has he settled in etc. If he’s right, he wins this. Best straight track horse in the world, as we saw when he beat Redzel first up in the Lightning before giving them weight in the Newmarket and proving too classy, beating Merchant Navy, and we know what he did first up at the Curragh. On weights and measures, Merchant Navy won’t turn the tables and I’m happy to take a chance on the Aussie star.
4 Harry Angel (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the obvious, but I wouldn’t want to take anything short, say under $3. His won five of nine, he looks a star, but keep in mind his four career defeats have come at Ascot. He handles other straight tracks with absolute ease but for some reason, he just doesn’t excel like normal at Ascot. That’s the risk you’re taking, but his first up win at York was very good.
12 The Tin Man (Bet Now: $8.00) is the defending champ from last year and I think he’s going well enough to figure in the finish once again. Don’t think he beat much first up down the straight at Windsor but his class got him home and he was dominant in winning in the end. Proven track/distance performer and has upside plus race fitness.
Race 5. Wokingham Stakes 1200m
7 Dreamfield (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the standout here. John Gosden trains this Oasis Dream colt, who was around 18 months between runs when resuming at this track/distance but punters knew something as he was off the map late and he bolted in under James Doyle. Second up syndrome the query, but he looks a Group horse against handicappers. Keen.
26 Blue De Vega (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Robert Cowell trained five year old who was a bit disappointing I thought last time out at Haydock over 1000m when getting back. He looked to have a reasonable run in transit but didn’t come on at all behind Muthmir. Stepping up to six furlongs I think suits and he ran okay at this Carnival a couple of years ago.
8 Undrafted (Bet Now: $17.00) is the big watch. This horse won the 2015 Diamond Jubilee so we know he’s proven at the track/distance and on the world stage. Resumed at Belmont and closed off really well late in the piece when third to Blind Ambition. His work since, from what I’ve seen on Youtube, has been pretty good and you only need to hear Wesley Ward give him a positive push to jump on.
Race 6. Queen Alexandra Stakes 4100m
Moore and Mullins…it’s a combo that should be respected and I’ll cop it with 11 Thomas Hobson (Bet Now: $2.10). This horse hasn’t raced since the Melbourne Cup where he ran an absolute blinder in defeat behind Rekindling after doing a power of work in the run. That form should see him winning this and I doubt fitness will be an issue.
12 Count Octave (Bet Now: $6.50) looks a key threat. The Balding stable train this son of Frankel, who hasn’t raced since the Yorkshire Cup where he had the suck run behind the speed but the ground and class probably found him out behind Stradivarius. This looks more his go and if we get firmer footing, he’s a definite threat.
14 Light Pillar (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Galileo for the Joseph O’Brien team. He last raced over 3000m at Listowel in what looks an apprentice/amateur riding race where he attempted to lead all the way and he gave a pretty solid kick but was nabbed near the peg by the Willie Mullins trained Law Girl, and that horse is nowhere near the class of Thomas Hobson. Doubt he wins, but he’ll stay all day.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 Dreamfield
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 10 Natalie’s Joy
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 9 Redkirk Warrior
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