A mouth watering clash is on the cards at Flemington this Saturday in the feature race, the Group l Turnbull (2000m), with champion mare Verry Elleegant and boom horse Incentivise squaring off.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Turnbull Stakes.
2021 Turnbull Stakes Speed Map
Incentivise looks like he will lead for fun, like he did in the Makybe Diva. Mount Popa is getting towards peak fitness and he should press forward, likely sitting outside Incentivise. Verry Elleegant has the potential to land 1/1 while Persan can hold a spot from the inside gate.
2021 Turnbull Stakes Runner Preview
1. Sir Dragonet: Really good return in the Makybe Diva off a slow tempo. This run should top him off nicely for his defence of the Cox Plate but at the weights, I can’t have him as a winning chance. More of a first four threat.
2. Explosive Jack: Looked in need of the run in the Makybe Diva, finishing down the track and failing to come on. Given he is on a Cups path, that was to be expected. If he is going to be a Cups contender, he has to be running an improved race. I’ll watch if he can.
3. Incentivise: I’m a believer. I wasn’t pre Makybe Diva but he made a fool of me. He led throughout and really, he toyed with them, with Prebble being kind. If this track is genuinely wet, I’m not sure how he will go, especially against two of the best wet track horses in Australia.
4. Verry Elleegant: Champion mare and I’m really keen on her. To the eye, she was helped by the bias in the George Main but to counter that, she was a month between runs and had to change course, losing momentum. Gets to a suitable trip, gets conditions to suit, fitter…I think she wins.
5. Johnny Get Angry: Did nothing in the Turnbull and expecting something similar here.
6. Chapada: Didn’t do a great deal in the Naturalism and is a 2400m+ horse, so he will struggle against these.
7. Persan: Definite first four threat. Resumed over 1700m here and loomed to win. Condition just gave out late behind stablemate Floating Artist, who has won since. Does no work from the draw and is a must for exotics.
8. Colette: Bit surprised she is close to double figures. If we get a truly wet track, which I am expecting, I think she is more a $5.5-$6 chance. Two runs back from near last in the run have been super and is crying out for more ground, as well as a wet track, so for mine, she only runs well.
9: Mount Popa: Already in the Caulfield Cup via the Mornington Cup win. In saying that, I’d want to see something positive from here to say he’s a contender for the Cup. He’s hard fit now at 2000m and gets a cheap run on speed so he gets his chance to show something.
10: Young Werther: Very talented animal but just does a bit too much wrong still. Good late without threatening behind Floating Artist first up and will improve up to 2000m. Just not sure he’s good enough to threaten.
2021 Turnbull Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
I’m keeping it simple here. Backing the two gun wet trackers. Keen most on Verry Elleegant so having $80 on her, while saving on Colette with $20 win. I’m locking in $9.50 for her because I just feel that is great value.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $800
Group l Strategy Return: $640