The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m), and the 2021 edition shapes up to be a fascinating edition, with Incentivise looking to create history and become the first horse since Ethereal in 2001 to complete the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Melbourne Cup.
2021 Melbourne Cup Speed Map
The intentions are clear with Twilight Payment in that they want to be positive from the outset ala 2020. Incentivise will slide forward from the wide gate, likewise Sir Lucan I’d say based on what he has done in the UK. Delphi won’t be far away, and Pondus should get a suck run from the inside gate. Spanish Mission is drawn in 14, Incentivise in 16. Very interesting to see what Williams does on the UK stayer.
2021 Trifecta Bet:
Boxed Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 22
2021 Melbourne Cup Runner Preview
1. Twilight Payment: History says it is very difficult to win back-to-back Cups. But history also once said you couldn’t win the race without a lead up run in Australia and that has been smashed in recent years. Times are changing and he is finding form at the right time. Has a good racing pattern and is tough. He’ll be hard to beat even allowing for the weight.
2. Incentivise: History says no. Very rare to see the double successfully done. Makybe Diva is the only horse this century to carry 57kg+ and win on the first Tuesday in November. But with the greatest respect to the field, there is a lot of dead wood to this final field and it seems the longer the race goes, the better he gets. He’s the one they have to beat.
3. Spanish Mission: I was keen on him running well in the race last year but connections decided to wait another 12 months, get his rating properly up, have that hardened experience against the big boys and I think it’s been the making of him. If he brings what he has produced to date in the UK down under, he’s hard to beat.
4. Verry Elleegant: If this track was heavy, she’d be a clear top pick. She’s the proven WFA big time performer and IMO, she’s a champion. Tried her heart out in the Cox Plate and as well as Lane rode, J Mac jumping on is a big, big tick and she has shown she is capable on dry ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if she won and cements her place as an all time great.
5. Explosive Jack: Prior to the Caulfield Cup, I had him as #1 seed for the locals for the Melbourne Cup. But that run was just terrible. Can you forgive a good horse for one poor run? If you can, you’re getting a good price to find out. I can see him running in the top ten. But that last start I can’t ignore and I can’t entertain him as a winning chance.
6. The Chosen One: He is a dead set dry track horse, so pen the Caulfield Cup effort. He was good in the Herbert Power…but can he improve out of sight and trouble Incentivise? On exposed form, it’s a no.
7. Delphi: Arrogant win in the Herbert Power. Ridden like he was the best horse in the race and duly saluted. The Caulfield Cup run though is the concerning factor because he was a beaten horse a fair way out and didn’t show much fight. Petrol tank might well be empty.
8. Ocean Billy: Auckland Cup winner so staying the trip will be no issue. The issue is the class. The NZ form, overall, is rank. The saving grace is that he is with Chris Waller. Wouldn’t be totally shocked if he ran top ten, but looking elsewhere.
9: Selino: Looked on track after the Bart Cummings. Then came back in trip for Caulfield Cup and that was more or less a barrier trial for this. If there is one horse from the Caulfield Cup behind Incentivise I can warm to as a knockout chance, it’s this guy. Dry track yes, 3200m yes, big track yes…I think he only runs well.
10: Johnny Get Angry: There is conjecture about his place in the field. On current form, he is well and truly dead wood in this field. But he is a Group l winner so in that regard, he deserves his spot in the field. Good luck to all concerned, but I doubt he beats a runner home.
11. Knights Order: I have him on par with Johnny Get Angry. He’s dead set no chance on recent form. He is a winner at two miles though, which is a tick…that’s the only real tick I can find for him.
12. Persan: He was the story of the Spring last year, going on to run so well in the Melbourne Cup. 12 months on, is he going as good? After the Turnbull, it was a no, but the Caulfield Cup effort sees him back on track and this stable at 2400m+, he’s not getting dismissed.
13: Carif: It’s a great reward with Blaike McDougall steering. He has been a form rider for a couple of years and has made waves during the Melbourne Spring. That’s the only positive I can find for the horse. On form, he’ll really struggle. The saving grace is that he’s proven at 3200m on a firm deck.
14. Master Of Wine: He was going like a complete busted but his run in the Bart Cummings had good merit to it. Then just too far back and never a factor in the Caulfield Cup. I can’t see him threatening.
15. Pondus: He’s had the prep/experience in Australia and thrived from last year. The two runs back from a break scream out to me of a horse that has been set for one race, which is this. I’m giving enormous respect to Pondus.
16. Grand Promenade: He’s a beauty. He is the 2021 version of Persan. Has just come through the grades, kept winning and is a live chance in the Melbourne Cup. He’s had a good grounding, he’s well in at the weights, doubt the two miles will be an issue…he’s right in the mix.
17 Miami Bound: Good Flemington record but I just don’t think she’s going any good. The run last start was okay, but she found her preferred footing and went backwards from her run in the race last year. I can’t entertain her as a threat.
18. Port Guillaume: Blinkers first time in the Caulfield Cup off a forgive run in the Bart Cummings when pulling up lame and he ran a positive race, albeit was never threatening Incentivise. I suspect that will be the case again. Top ten chance at best.
19. She’s Ideel: I thought she had her chance behind Montefilia in the Metropolitan. Blinkers back on in the Caulfield Cup and she was okay without jumping up and down. She can run top but doubt she threatens.
20. Future Score: He’s not going well enough to my eye. They tried something different last start and it backfired, failing to finish it off. He’s fourth up so has upside to come, but would need to improve out of sight.
21. Tralee Rose: I’m not jumping up and down about her after Geelong like some are. It was just a win I thought, aided by a 12/10 steer. She is racing very dour this prep, and seemingly has lost her change up speed. I can see her running top ten. I can’t see her winning/placing.
22. Floating Artist: I am warming to him. He was touted as a key threat to Incentivise for the Caulfield Cup but didn’t get a start. He then went to the Valley and you can see above how ugly the viewing was. He’s got fresh legs, a turn of foot, and with only 50kg on his back, he’s a must for exotics, and I can easily have something on him at a good price.
23. Great House: It’s the same year in, year out. The Hotham winner doesn’t exactly have the A1 form, but every year they run well in the Cup and expecting something similar, especially a Chris Waller horse on the back up, which is always a positive.
24. Sir Lucan: I was ready to tout him as a genuine Melbourne Cup contender, but the St Leger run has me worried that he might be a tired horse. But, the WaterBott camp will get their hands on him and last time they got a quality stayer from overseas was Fiorente, and we know what he went on to do.
2021 Melbourne Cup $100 Betting Strategy:
We had luck with the first fours in the Coolmore and Cantala on Derby Day, so will be doing the same thing. $100 boxed first four with eight runners, with the numbers being 1-2-3-4-9-16-22-24
Group l Strategy Outlay: $2570
Group l Strategy Return: $7748.5
