Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Saturday (17/9/2022) racing. Please note that some prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 8.30am Saturday.
Index
0.5u = A chance/throw at the stumps
1u = A good chance
1.5 = Reasonably confident
2u+ = Very confident/good thing
September Outlay: 205.25 Units
September Return: 258.38 Units
Randwick (3 Units)
Race One: No Bet
Race Two: No Bet
Race Three: No Bet
Race Four: 3u Win Arnold (Tote/SP)
Race Five: No Bet
Race Six: No Bet
Race Seven: No Bet
Race Eight: No Bet
Race Nine: No Bet
Race Ten: No Bet
Caulfield (4 Units)
Race One: No Bet
Race Two: 1u Win Kin (Tote/SP)
Race Three: No Bet
Race Four: No Bet
Race Five: No Bet
Race Six: No Bet
Race Seven: 1u Boxed First Four = 5.95% (4-6-7-8-10-14-15-16)
Race Eight: 2u Win Chain Of Lightning (Tote/SP)
Race Nine: No Bet
Early Plays For Saturday (6 Units As Of 8.50am Thursday)
0.5u Win/1u Place Hurn Court R1 Randwick @ $41/$9
2.5u Win Grace And Harmony R3 Randwick @ $3.9
2u Win Moscow Red R4 Morphettville @ $6.5
All In Plays For Saturday (As Of 4.30pm Monday)
0.5u Win Amendable @ $11 In Caulfield Guineas Prelude
0.5u Win Hope At Hand @ $11 In Thousand Guineas Prelude
0.25u Win Crystal Pegasus @ $51 In Naturalism Stakes
0.5u Place Crystal Pegasus @ $14 In Naturalism Stakes
5u Win Nature Strip @ $2.9 In The Shorts
Overview: I am stunned that Aft Cabin is even money in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Nice horse yes, but not a $2 nice horse. There is a bit of quality in this race. Liked the run of Amenable at Moonee Valley. I think $11 for him is very much acceptable.
These 3YO Fillies are looking very even, especially in Melbourne. I want different form and Hope At Hand is indeed different form. Closed off very well fresh at Morphettville behind a Stakes class animal IMO, Taunting, over an unsuitable trip. Love the rise in trip for her, she showed good promise as a juvenile and $11 is a fair enough price to find out if she’ll measure up. I’m saying she will.
The Naturalism looks an absolute lottery. I think have a peanut at the $51/$14 on both Aleas and Crystal Pegasus. Each are nominated for Randwick as well, but both did more than enough in their respective fresh runs. If they run here, I think that price is ridiculous. Uncle Bryn a nice horse, but a query perhaps in a strong 2000m? Too short IMO.
Nature Strip $2.90 in The Shorts…why? Surely he starts $1.90. Yes, he’s not a Semi Final horse traditionally, but all the noise out of the stable and those that have seen him in the flesh say he’s looking as good as ever, the trial/work was outstanding and he just seems to be getting better with age. Can’t believe he’s that price. Eduardo will give him a good race and is the main threat. Mazu way too short at $4.80, Lost And Running/Classique Legend not ready, Overpass not up to them…just all points to Nature Strip.
































