Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Thursday’s (23/5/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6.30pm Wednesday.
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Betting Strategy Outlay: $34615
Betting Strategy Return: $38202
Futures Outlay: $2195
Futures Return: $1871
$100 Win Killer Instinct R2 @ $2.35 (BetEasy)
Hawkesbury Overview: Runs up to her best and she’s a genuine $1.70-$1.80 chance against this lot, so have to bank on the breaks going her way. Tommy even admitted he rode a poor race on the filly last time out at Newcastle and was very good in defeat. Looks ideally suited up to 1800m, the depth isn’t overly strong IMO and at her best, she should be too good, but it’s D-Day from a betting POV.
$100 Win Populist R5 @ $4.6 (TAB)
Moree Overview: Populist finds a very winnable to get win one. Just thought he got too far back at Tamworth last time and it’s near impossible to come from as far back as where he was and win. Didn’t do a bad job in defeat I thought. The depth here looks significantly weaker compared to recent runs for this horse and stable/jock combo are usually around the mark when combining.
$100 Win Aetherius R4 @ $2.7 (BetEasy)
Townsville Overview: I know that weights/ratings aren’t everything, but I think this race and this filly is an exception. I just don’t see how they beat her given under the weights scale she carries 55kg despite having seven more rating points than her nearest rival. Somehow found herself three wide no cover from gate five last time and with 63.5kg, she was no hope after that. Did a good job to stick on like she did. Is proven at this distance and does meet the winner of that race nearly 10kg better off here, so I just don’t see her getting beat.
$40 Win/$60 Place Tashani R2 @ $11/$2.9 (TAB)
Pakenham Synthetic Overview: Don’t think Tashani will need to be a world beater to be competitive here in what looks a rather ordinary maiden. On debut for Nikki Burke off what I thought was a good jumpout at Cranbourne recently when off the speed and she did make up nice ground late under riding in a jumpout which looked okay depth wise. Scratched from Ballarat on Wednesday in preference for this and the raced brigade look limited, so at the odds, happy to find out what’s under the hood.