Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Monday’s (10/6/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 5pm Sunday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $39415
Betting Strategy Return: $42173
Futures Outlay: $2565
Futures Return: $2391
Randwick – Kensington
$40 Win Lucknow Lady R2 @ $4 (Sportsbet)
$20 Win Matowi R6 @ $8 (BetEasy)
$10 Win Parlay 2,3 = $40 Cost
November Man R4
Stella Sea Sun R5
Amorita R7
Randwick-Kensington Overview:
Pretty keen to see how Lucknow Lady measures up in town. Made her debut for Mark Newnham at Kembla Grange where not much went her way and it was a bit of an ugly watch if you were on when a close up fourth to Speed And Style. She’ll love the step up to 1400m and the stable is getting it spot on lately when it comes to placing their horses to win. Matowi is flying. Just yet to get a chance to show that this prep in two runs, both at Warwick Farm. First up over 1400m never really had a chance to let down in a hard watch behind Destiny’s Own before racing over the mile where he was absolutely bolting in behind the speed and was there to win, but the gaps just didn’t appear. Normal luck here, keen to see how he’ll go. Despite the weight rise, I think it will take a pretty good effort to beat November Man. He’s flying for Anthony Cummings. Outstanding late sectionals here two back when beaten narrowly by Brook Magic. Then raced on the course proper where he was backed off the map and under a lovely steer from Reith, he was far too good. Drops to 70 grade from 78, gee he’ll take some beating. Have always had time for Stella Sea Sun and keen to see her on a big track matro level. Not sure the tight turns of Canterbury suited her but she was still good in defeat when third to Notation. She was 1300m back to 1250m that afternoon, so up to 1400m on the bigger track, there is a bit to like about her, and she did spank them in the win prior to last start. It was a bit of an ugly watch if you were on Amorita at Rosehill three weeks ago. Just got too far back in the run after jumping okay, with her lack of early speed probably costing her the win in a bunched finish, rattling home late to run a close up sixth. Think if this was 1200m she’d be a moral but with good speed engaged, she’ll be strong late, and if she doesn’t give as much of a start this time around, she’ll be dangerous.
Mornington
$20 Win Careless Whisper R1 @ $6 (TAB)
$10 Win/$20 Place Yulong Stride R2 @ $17/$4.6 (Sportsbet)
$20 Win Censored R4 @ $6.5 (TAB)
$10 Win/$20 Place Fast Fever R7 @ $12/$4 (TAB)
Mornington Overview:
Like the way that Careless Whisper has looked at the trials and confident she runs well here on debut. Looked decent enough on speed in a Flemington jumpout before trialling at Werribee and was one of the standout performers of the morning, bolting up under Jamie Kah and running sharp time relative to the morning. Looks talented and happy to be with her. The Snowden camp trains this Yulong Stride, who hasn’t raced since debuting at Bendigo in February when a closing fourth to the above average Yulong Savings, making ground after getting back in the run. Been given a good break, given a quiet trial at Werribee behind a subsequent winner in Skiddaw, but was most impressive in a recent Flemington jumpout. Think he’s ready to go on debut. Up to 2000m, quite keen here on the Tony McEvoy trained Censored. He was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1700m at Geelong where he got too far back in an on pace dominated affair. Was held up early on in the straight also but got out and found the line well. He’ll eat up 2000m and if he doesn’t give away so much of a start this time, he’ll take some beating. The best version of Fast Fever is certainly better than this lot. Was hot on him when he resumed at Hamilton and on face value, I thought his run was rather ordinary despite running fourth, beaten 0.7L, but was found to be lame post race, so a clear excuse for him. He had trialled up enormous prior to that, so have to give him another chance here.
