Resident tipster Adam gives his betting strategy for Tuesday’s (5/3/2019) racing. Note that the prices quoted were available at the time of writing, which was 6pm Monday.
Betting Strategy Outlay: $14840
Betting Strategy Return: $14654
Futures Outlay: $500
Futures Return: $425
Kembla Grange
$20 Win Parlay 2,3= $80 Cost
Temple Run R1
Superbowl Sunday R5
Duchess Of Windsor R6
$5 E/W Pinch Passion R7 @ $31 Win (TAB), Place (Tote)
$10 Quaddie= 10.41% (2-3-8/1-2-3-4/6-11/1-4-6-14)
Kembla Grange Overview:
Main bet for the meeting will be the Parlay. Temple Run is the best of the day IMO and should be winning the first barring bad luck, which came his way last time but he still proved too good. Superbowl Sunday showed really good fight on this track last time in maiden where he looked gone but he came again and just missed in a head bob. Shinn on, firmer footing, controls the race, hard to beat. The sixth looks a dead set two horse between Duchess Of Windsor and Vitesse. Hoping for a genuine tempo with the former, who comes back from the mile but gets onto a bigger track and likely is drawn the best part of the track. The throw at the stumps is Pinch Passion, formerly with Rob Heathcoate but is now with Natalie Jarvis, and her stable is absolutely flying at the moment. His best form in Queensland is good enough to measure up here. $31 is just the wrong odds IMO.
Mackay
$40 Win Sandy Town R1 @ $3.5 (TAB)
$60 Win Bold Shot R4 @ $2.3 (Neds)
Mackay Overview:
When Garnett Taylor brings a couple to Mackay, rarely does he go back to his Sunny Coast base without a winner. Think he can get 2/2, starting with Sandy Town in the first, who is on debut. Didn’t do much in a trial last year so was tipped out and has come back a much better horse it seems if the Feb 12 trial is any guide. Showed really good early toe to lead and wasn’t really knocked about in the trial when second. Hoping Wiggins takes the bull by the horns and lets her run because there doesn’t appear much of her but she’s got great early toe and will look the winner for a long way. Class should come to the fore via Bold Shot. On face value, you’d be thinking maybe not, but this looks a considerable drop in depth from what he faced for the most part last time in and bear in mind he has resumed previously at 1100-1200m, so 1300m first up tells me he’s ready and if that’s the case, he’s better than these.
Scone
$60 Win Power Rush R1 @ $2.15 (TAB)
$10 E/W Duchess Of Lennox R2 @ $19 Win (TAB), Place (Tote)
$20 Win Aubrey Skies R5 @ $8.5 (Sportsbet)
Scone Overview:
Could Power Rush be a sneaky Provincial Championships horse? Above average filly for Kris Lees who is first up off a 20 week break, where she last raced on a bog at Warwick Farm and was far from disgraced when third to Voila. Hard to get a read on the trial, but she looks to have class/quality and a bit on these I would think, but market will be the guide. I think $18/thereabouts is a silly price of Duchess Of Lennox, who is on debut for the Stephen Jones team. Thought she trialled well at Tamworth behind Burning Crown, who’s above average, before trialling here and I thought she went about her business nicely behind Aubrey Skies. Not the strongest maiden going around so she’s worth a speck each way. I’ll take a punt on Aubrey Skies. Didn’t show much in two runs in the first prep but gee the trial looked sharp. Sat on speed, wasn’t asked for much and still won it under not much riding. Think she’s clear overs, if she can get cover.
