The Black Caviar Lightning can lay claim to being Australia’s premier speed test and this year’s edition, which will be run at Flemington this Saturday, will help sort the pecking order of a generation creating plenty of attention.
Last year’s Golden Slipper winner Marhoona, Golden Rose record-breaker Beiwacht and Coolmore Stud Stakes hero Tentyris will all resume in the 1000-metre Group 1.
It will be the first time the winners of the same year’s Slipper, Golden Rose and Coolmore have clashed since those races have all held Group 1 status.
The Lightning has been the obvious progression for a number of Coolmore winners, but not so the other two races.
Exosphere is the only Group 1 Golden Rose winner to have run in the Lightning at three, while Crystal Lily and her sire Stratum are the only Slipper winners to run in a Lightning the following year since 1990.
Crystal Lily bumped into Black Caviar in 2011 and could manage only fifth, the same position Stratum occupied in the 2006 behind Takeover Target.
Three Slipper winners adorn the Lightning honour roll, but none since Storm Queen in 1967.
Fifteen three-year-old boys and nine girls have won the Lightning, but since their dominant run from 1998 to 2005, when they won six of the eight, Home Affairs (2021) and Coolangatta (2023) are the only three-year-olds to have won.
The six three-year-old winners this century have come from 72 starters, where the market expectation has been nine wins.
The only one of the six to win who did not at least run to their peak Timeform rating going in was Home Affairs, but he still ran to 126 – the equal highest figure run by a three-year-old this century – and was only one pound down on his Coolmore peak of 127.
Of those 72, only 22 – 30 percent – have run to their previous best mark or better in the Lightning with the average regression being eight pounds.
Of the Group 1-winning three-year-olds in this year’s race, Marhoona is most in need of a spike on her peak rating, which is her 117 Golden Slipper rating, as no Lightning has been won with a sub-118 rating since Spinning Hill won in 114 in 2002.
Beiwacht won the Golden Rose in 123, however, and Tentyris ran 124+ in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, figures that are up on the 10-year average of 122.2 since three-time winner Black Caviar and Lankan Rupee won their Lightnings in 130 or better.
They won’t be able to regress too much on those numbers to be a chance in Saturday’s race, which includes fellow three-year-olds My Gladiola (112) and Military Tycoon (103), with proven star Giga Kick coming off back-to-back 122 performances last spring.
He ran that number first-up in spring in the 1100m Group 2 Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield on October 11 before replicating it in the Group 1 Champions Sprint (1200m) at Flemington.
The other two runners in this year’s Lightning are Group 1 winners Baraqiel and Benedetta, who own peak ratings of 120 and 116 respectively.
