26/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Sandown, Christmas Stakes day

I think 8 Snapped (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can resume with a win here for Team Freedman. She hasn’t raced since a one run Winter prep where plenty went wrong for her so forgive and forget she went around behind Throntari at Caulfield. Her jumpout work leading in has been strong, she is the one with upside/progression and with the claim, she’ll take beating.

2 Red Hot Nicc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. That was the case at this track/distance last time and he gave a strong kick but was clearly no match for a future Stakes horse in Sigh. There is good early speed engaged here, so he may have to do work in the run, but is hard fit and should be around the mark in what looks an open race.

1 Lloyd’s Crown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a strong 1000m horse and likes Sandown so he commands respect. He resumes for Bec Waymouth, having not raced since July 23 at Caulfield when finding the six furlongs a bridge too far behind Big Apple. 1000m is his sweet spot and drawn inside, he should have little trouble holding the front and running a bold race fresh.

3 Dunkel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a Derby horse and might be Explosive Jack 2.0. He had two runs towards the end of the Spring, winning with a bang on debut in a 1600m maiden at The Valley before being absolutely enormous in defeat over 2000m on Cranbourne Cup Day. Freshened up and usually Patty Payne sends a strong team to Tassie, so I assume this guy is a Tassie Derby horse and if I am right, this may well be a prep run, but I think he has panels on them.

1 Hard To Cross (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Dunkel and is certainly heading in the right direction himself. He has won his past two, each over the mile, the latest being here where he was there to be run down but I loved the way he found under pressure to fend them off and win. The extra 200m, I think, will be okay and does look more suited to win this race on paper than Dunkel…but I don’t think he has the engine of that horse.

9 Majestic Style (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the best of the rest. She was smashed in betting last time out in a Kyneton maiden and despite doing a bit wrong, she had a bit on them under Shinn and drew clear late. Reckon she’d love a rise to 2000m but staying at 1800m, she’ll land on speed and be strong late. If Dunkel is off his game, this is a filly that can certainly be dangerous.

All things being equal, 3 St Lawrence (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be taking care of this lot. Former Kiwi that made his Australian debut at Sandown at the midweeks and the way he put them away when asked by J Allen was that of a Stakes class horse, at the very least. It was a win of a horse destined for better things than this so provided there is no second up syndrome, he should be too good.

5 Princess Rhaenys (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win and she is the main threat. Ran over two weeks ago over 1800m at Sandown and I thought should have gone close to winning. Stacky is riding in super form but he didn’t give this mare the best of rides and got held up badly in a crucial stage in the straight, eventually getting clear and working home strongly when third to Right You Are. Hard fit now, she’ll take beating.

2 Confrontational (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and can fill a first four spot. That last start win came at The Valley where he sat back off the good speed, got clear air at the right stage and came with a well timed run to win impressively, albeit there were several unlucky runners in behind. In form now and despite a clear depth rise, he is in the mix as as knockout hope.

I see no reason why 7 Life Lessons (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can’t win again. Peter Moody has this mare absolutely flying and for mine, this seems the perfect to dip the toe into blacktype water. 3/3 this time in and each run, she has got better and stronger to the line, the latest win being a strong Mares race triumph where the form will stand up I’m sure. 1700m looks fine, maps ideally, J Kah on, she’ll do me.

1 Nugget (Bet Now:  $SP.00) clearly is hard to beat, but he does seem a bit on the short side given I think an end of prep run isn’t far away. Had everything fall into place to win at Randwick last time, and he only just lasted. 60kg at Stakes level and little to no upside in the tank, I think at the price, he is a clear risk, but in terms of scope for the career, he is the one to keep an eye on.

5 See Marie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is working up to a win…whether it’s here, I doubt it, but the small field helps her cause. Ran over 1800m here last time out and was good to the line nearer the inside when fourth to Right You Are, who franked the form when winning on Saturday. She hasn’t got the class/quality of the first two, but with this small field, how often do see see an outsider cause a boilover.

1 Chandon Burj (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class of the field and I’ll bank on that coming to the fore here. Dominant win over the mile two back at The Valley before going to this track/distance where she landed on speed and tried her guts out but didn’t have the quality to go with them late behind Right You Are. That was 84 grade and back to 70 here, with the claim, I think she’ll take beating.

8 Bellini Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like 1800m will suit. She ran over the mile under the lights at The Valley last time and would have been a tragedy beaten had she not got clear but she got out in time and surged hard the final few strides to get up and win. Yet to tick the 1800m box but off last run, she will be fine, and she does have the change up speed to be dangerous.

5 Delta Tango (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good overall record, which should hold her in good stead for this. Her last run came just over two weeks back over 2040m at The Valley where she was back in the small field and just missed the boat when they dashed, getting warm late and was solid to the line behind surprise winner Uniquely. Not sure she has the quality to beat these but a must for multiples.

2 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in career best form and is the one they have to beat. He is looking to make it four on the bounce after three wins, the last two being in town. Latest win came at this track/distance where he landed on speed and looked the winner a fair way out, drawing clear and winning nicely. Lands in a plum spot once again and really, only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

10 Sig Positano (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. He resumed behind Invincible Caviar a few weeks back at Pakenham where he was ridden quite cold and was good late without threatening behind the promising mare. He can be a very hard horse to follow and trust with confidence but the return was quite good and you look at his form from last prep, gee it reads well for a race like this.

3 Chassis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for the Maher/Eustace camp. Too bad to be true here on Cup Day behind Vespertine before going to Pakenham where they rode her with a sit and I thought she found the line pretty well late in the piece behind Umgawa. She is Stakes class when right so she is certainly up to this level and off last run, I think she is right on track. Hard to beat.

3 Andermatt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a bomb fresh horse and really, if he’s within range 400m out, good luck beating him. They tried to get him to an Everest in the Spring but didn’t quite measure up in the lead ups, though last start he was four wide no cover behind Nature Strip. He’s an absolute gun when produced first up, he’ll love a dry deck here and the long straight should see him get every chance to wind up and blouse them and stamp himself an Oakleigh Plate contender.

2 Jigsaw (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has come back a different and a much better horse IMO. Resumed with a bang in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne before going to the Doveton where he chased the speed and was there to be run down but he found under pressure and fended them off to win. Not sure what upside is left with him but if he is able to hold his form, he will be around the mark here.

6 Shamino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a query at a strong 1100m but has upside and a touch of quality when right. He resumed in the Apache Cat where he was run off his legs it seemed and was never a factor but was solid late in the piece behind Jigsaw. Hopefully with a more genuine tempo, the 1100m will be fine, and he does have quality to run an improved race.

Peanut each way on 17 East Indiaman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) in the get out. This form looked hopelessly out of form once upon a time but he really turned the corner towards the end of last prep, winning two on the bounce in dominant fashion. He is down to run at Morphettville but if they run here, he should land on speed and he does seem to race best when leading. Each way bet for sure.

15 Hesket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door for Matty Ellerton. Both runs back from a break have been strong. Bumped into a good one fresh at The Valley in Quraysha before going here where he did work in the run but surged hard and loomed but had to settle for a narrow second to Suparazi. Hard fit, should get a better map in transit, he appeals for sure.

Fitter and up to 1300m are two big ticks for 8 Big Apple (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed over 1000m here where he got a mile back in the run and was never a winning factor but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Sigh. Is a second up winner, can settle much closer in the run and gets a big jockey upgrade with Jamie Kah taking over. Knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Andermatt

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Dunkel

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 17 East Indiaman

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 10

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 6, 8, 11, 15, 17

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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