18/2/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm

An eight race card will be run and won at Eagle Farm this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race One (13:33) : Coca Cola Handicap 1000m:

Back Me: 1 Paradis Imperial (Best Odds: $3.20) is a star juvenile filly from North Queensland who is five from five. She ran over this track/distance four weeks back where she jumped brilliantly to lead and from there, it was pretty painless as she was gifted the lead and rightfully put them away. Proven weight carrier and she is just a winner.
Big Danger: 2 Acceptile (Best Odds: $7.00) had really confident market support when resuming over this track/distance last Wednesday where he sat off a hot speed before D Browne got the splits nearer the inside and once he clicked him up, away he went and he was dominant on the line. You only have to look back to last prep to see he is well above average.
Long Shot: 12 Showashadow (Best Odds: $6.00) was a drifter in the market when debuting over this track/distance two weeks ago where she settled off the pace and chased hard all the way, and was indeed good late when fourth to Red Hot Miss. Should take improvement from that and stable is in really good form.

Race Two (14:08) : Cascade Handicap (75) 2200m:

Back Me: Going for some value in 1 Outraged (Best Odds: $9.00). He is on the back up after racing last Saturday at Doomben where he settled off the pace in the run and tried hard but couldn’t match it with the above average Arki. This is the easiest race he has contested in some time, so I am confident he can get the job done.
Big Danger: 3 Morendi (Best Odds: $3.40) was a risk I thought last start over this track/distance given he was rising 3kg from the previous start/win, but despite that, he was very strong on the line and got the win to continue a real purple patch. Has to carry weight again, but I can’t ignore him off what he has done in recent times.
Long Shot: 2 Magnatune (Best Odds: $16.00) was an outsider when racing over 2200m at the Sunny Coast three weeks ago at the Sunny Coast but despite his price, gee he ran quite well when closing off strongly to run a close up third to the well performed San Telmo. Off that effort, he has to be rated highly here.

Race Three (14:43) : Jim Beam Handicap 1200m:

Back Me: Going with 2 Upstart Pride (Best Odds: $5.00). He ran over this track/distance two weeks back where he carved over to lead at a good gallop and looked in control of the race. Gave a really good kick but was nabbed late by Divine Service. Really like the booking of Jeff Lloyd, and drawn wide, so he should carve over again and prove tough to run down.
Big Danger: 1200m is perhaps a touch too short for 1 Too Good To Refuse (Best Odds: $2.50), but he has a bit on these in terms of class. He hasn’t raced since December 31 over 1300m here in the Buffering where he got a mile back in the run and it was a day where making ground was difficult to do but he did and got within a couple of lengths of Most Important. If he is close enough 200m out, he’ll just about win.
Long Shot: With a likely hot speed, 7 Flying Riddle (Best Odds: $26.00) will sit back and maybe have the last say. He resumed in the Summer Dash at Murwillumbah where he got back and couldn’t really come on behind the well performed Crooked Blaze. Down on the minimum, and if they go silly in front, he could be last man standing.

Race Four (15:18) : Canadian Club Handicap (75) 1600m:

Back Me: I’m convinced that 6 Old Habits (Best Odds: $9.50) is going much better than what the form guide says. Worked home strongly first up at the Gold Coast behind Princess Charm before racing over 1400m here where he sat near last in a slowly run race and couldn’t come on in the straight behind Dee Nine Elle. He is a horse who will love the step up in trip and he does have some quality about him.
Big Danger: 5 Raffinato (Best Odds: $9.00) is a handy mare who should be given another chance after performing quite poorly first up over 1350m at Doomben a couple of Wednesdays back behind Deconstructed. Strong second up record and Lloyd remains on. Big improver if she finds her best form, which is good enough to beat these.
Long Shot: 1 Sir Berus (Best Odds: $21.00) will appreciate the drop in grade and depth after contesting an open handicap at the Sunny Coast three weeks ago where he got back to near the tail of the field and couldn’t quite come on when finishing down the track behind Colour Charge. Been a while since he has contested a race as easy as this. Big watch.

Race Five (15:53) : Mt Franklin Plate (Class 3) 1500m:

Back Me: Really keen here each way on 1 Collateral (Best Odds: $26.00). I was keen on him at a price last start at the Gold Coast where he opened $21 and got down to as low as $5. The plunge almost came off but he had to settle for second to Starocity. The Eagle Farm 1500m looks perfect for him, and being third up, he should still have upside left, and he will be strong late.
Big Danger: 15 Candika (Best Odds: $2.15) is a classy filly who ran in a similar race over 1400m here a fortnight back where her horrible racing pattern cost her again where she was back near last and just had too much to do from where she was. That’s why she is not on top. Her racing pattern is costing her. Best horse in the race, but hard to trust.
Long Shot: 10 Lieder (Best Odds: $17.00) ran over 1200m at the Sunny Coast a couple of Sundays back where it was left to an absolute peach by D Browne to get the former Godolphn galloper home, savaging the line late to win in the last stride. He has won up to the mile, so 1500m here is no issue, and now his confidence is up, he can go right on with it.

Race Six (16:37) : Makers Mark Handicap 1600m:

Back Me: 12 Hi Son (Best Odds: $19.00) had really good market support at odds over this track/distance three weeks back but he was asked to do too much from off the pace when finishing midfield behind Colour Charge. He was third up there, so he should have upside left and on his best form, he is right up to these.
Big Danger: 5 Beatniks (Best Odds: $6.00) is finding it hard to win but I am including her here, because I thought she was really good last start in that race won by Colour Charge here where she got back in a slowly run race yet made up really good ground late in the piece to be beaten a tick over three lengths. Hard to trust, but she gets her chance here.
Long Shot: 13 Sabkhat (Best Odds: $12.00) is a horse who can be an absolute nightmare to trust but on his best form, he’d be right in this. He ran a fortnight back over 1400m here where he sat on speed and stuck on really well late when fourth to Dee Nine Elle. Much better last time out, but I think he will be more effective with cover.

Race Seven (17:17) : Sprite Handicap (Class 6) 1200m:

Back Me: 3 Skylimit (Best Odds: $6.00) has had two runs back this time in, both at this track/distance. Too good for them first up before racing in an open handicap where he sat off a hot speed and was off the bit before the turn but chased strongly late when fourth to Divine Service. Third up, so he should be ready to peak and if he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 6 Hi I’m Back (Best Odds: $3.90) is a handy gelding that looks one of the leading contenders here off the back of a very good first up run here a fortnight ago where he got back in a slowly run race and made up a stack of ground to run second to Quatronic. Good second up record and off that fresh effort, he has to be given some serious respect here.
Long Shot: 7 I Am Boss (Best Odds: $26.00) resumed in the Quatronic race here a fortnight ago and he did look to have a bit of a belly on him in the yard and ran accordingly, peaking on the run late behind the Matty Dunn sprinter. He does have a really good second up record and is much better suited at 1200m, so I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he beat this lot.

Race Eight (17:57) : Coke Zero Handicap 1200m:

Back Me: 10 Secret Mo (Best Odds: $15.00) is an above average type for Lindsay Gough who ran over 1000m at the Sunny Coast three weeks ago where he was given an absolute peach by Wiggins and despite looking in trouble a couple of times down the straight, he kept finding and in the end he was very strong on the line. No issues with the 1200m to my eye and he showed there that he doesn’t have to lead.
Big Danger: 9 All Over Bosanova (Best Odds: $5.50) deserves a crack in town off the back of three wins from three career outings, the latest on her home track where she bolted up by five lengths and ran really good time for the program with slick sectionals. Barrier is okay, because I think she can slide over. Definite threat.
Long Shot: 18 Niccanova (Best Odds: $5.00) is a son of Nicconi that debuted over 1000m at the Sunny Coast on January 22 where he was confidently backed late in the race and the punters got it spot on as he bolted up under Jimmy Orman to win quite impressively and ran sizzling time for the afternoon. Looks above average and the stable have kept him on ice for his city debut. Big watch.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Collateral

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Upstart Pride

VALUE: Race Four Number 6 Old Habits

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 10, 11, 15

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9, 13, 14

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 10, 18

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.