6/10/2012 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

The first super saturday of the new season in Victoria will be seen from Flemington this Saturday where it’s Turnbull Stakes Day. The $500,000 Group l, run over 2000m, has attracted the best of the best. Green Moon is the narrow favourite ahead of the 2011 winner of this race, December Draw. The 2011 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed, as well as Voila Ici and Linton, are right in the market.

Other key races are the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m), where we’ll see several Melbourne Cup aspirants, the Group ll Blazer Stakes (1410m), the Group ll Edward Manifold Stakes (1610m) for the fillies heading towards the Thousand Guineas/Oaks path and the Group ll Gilgai Stakes (1200m) down the straight.

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Race One: Herald Sun Superracing Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: First two-year-old race of the season in Victoria so it’s hard to tip anything with much confidence. But I have been impressed by the way Rockford has trialled and it’s a positive lead that Waterhouse has sent this colt down to Melbourne instead of staying in Sydney.
Don’t Back Me: Impossible to say.
Big Danger: From all reports, Dalton is a type that has a bit of ability, but does everything right. And that counts for a hell of a lot in these two-year-old races.
Roughie: Danny O’Brien can always bob up in these early races for the babies, so keep an eye on Excitable Boy.

$500 Rockford Free Bet

Race Two: Uci Stakes 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Very, very hard race to sort out given there are about 10 winning chances. From a betting point of view, I think the $11 on offer for Jimando is crazy. That is massive overs. Was very impressive here at the 1400m two starts back before bumping into a world class horse in Pierro last Friday night in the Bill Stutt. And I don’t think Moonee Valley suited. Gets back to Flemington, stepping up to 1800m and Williams takes over. Huge chance.
Don’t Back Me: It’ll be a great training effort from Peter Snowden if Tatra wins. Hasn’t raced for a month and is stepping up 400m from his last start win in the Myng Dynasty. I think he is a risk.
Big Danger: Hard not to be impressed by Philipi and his two career starts to date, with each of them being victories. I loved the way he attacked the line last start at Moonee Valley and I’d expect the rise in trip and racing on a bigger track will only benefit him. Definite danger.
Roughie: Priorioty Road didn’t beat much when resuming, but gee he looked good in doing it. He should get the perfect run from the barrier and both stable and rider are in cracking form at the moment.

$500 Jimando Free Bet

Race Three:Yellowglen Vintage Stakes1410m Form Guide
Back Me: I can only see two winning hopes here- Villa Splendido and Dazzler. I’d be very surprised if the winner came outside this pair. Which one to back? Dazzler, just because she has had experience racing the Melbourne Way.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the top two tips.
Big Danger: Villa Splendido was excellent in her return run behind Ichihara. Sat back, peeled out and worked home very nicely over the final 200m. The rise to 1410m is perfect and she should get the dream sit off the pace for Olly.
Roughie: About Square did catch the eye when resuming at Caulfield, then did absolutely nothing at Moonee Valley. I’ll put that down to the horse not handling the Valley circuit. Gets back to his home track here and if he was to discover his best form, he could fill the placings.

$500 Dazzler Free Bet

Race Four: The Bart Cummings2520m Form Guide
Back Me: First of the good things here in the shape of Exceptionally. This girl is fair dinkum flying at the moment. Should have won the Naturalism but she got a long, long way back and was asked to make up too much ground. From the perfect draw here, she should sit much closer to the tempo and just win. I think the $2.90 is very good odds.
Don’t Back Me: If the forecast for rain is right, then put a line through Tanby. He is a dud on rain affected ground.
Big Danger: Well this is D-Day for Maluckyday in terms of Caulfield/Melbourne Cup aspirations. He has to show something decent here. Has done well in two runs this time in, but he drops back to handicap level and the last time he was in a handicap he finished second in the 2010 Melbourne Cup.
Roughie: Seville got home nicely in the Naturalism after sitting well back off the pace. He hasn’t set the world on fire since coming to Australia, but he strikes a nice race here.

$500 Exceptionally Free Bet

Race Five: Blazer Stakes 1410m Form Guide
Back Me: An absolute tragedy if you backed Soft Sand first up. Settled well back, was pocketed…and pocketed, and pocketed, got checked several times…ugh, it was just ugly to watch. Barrier one, fitter, Williams sticks, she gets all the favours here.
Don’t Back Me: Just not 100% sure about Mosheen as a betting prospect. I thought her run was solid enough at Caulfield last start, but $5? I feel that is massive unders.
Big Danger: Hi Belle won’t get in trouble here like she did first up over this track/distance. She should have bolted in, but had no luck getting a clear run until the 100m mark. She does have a wide barrier, but Duric should have her midfield with cover and from there, she can show her ability, because there is no doubt she is flying at present.
Roughie: Got a few roughies. Shopaholic was very good when resuming and Bossy is back on her. Celebrity Girl has been backed to win this and should be cherry ripe in terms of fitness. Twilighting did the job well at Caulfield when sitting near the pace. She can be better when ridden more cold and Spot On Maggie was desperately unlucky last Friday night. She could bob up without surprising me.

$500 Soft Sand Free Bet

Race Six: Tab Edward Manifold Stakes 1610m Form Guide
Back Me: Very poor race. I honestly don’t know what to back here. Maybe Commanding Jewel? But I thought she had her chance last start. Maybe she is better when ridden with cover. Going with her, but with not much confidence.
Don’t Back Me: Maybe Discreet was pretty impressive in winning the Guineas over in Adelaide, but she beat nothing. Doesn’t deserve to be a $6 second pick in betting.
Big Danger: Showmya Miss has had three career starts, for a dominant win on the Geelong Synthetic and two good efforts in strong races. She does have a habit of missing the start, but the 1610m looks ideal and a the chance to run on a spacious track like Flemington appears to be perfect. Big threat and looks a nice bet at $10.
Roughie: Alzora is still a maiden, but it was hard not to be taken by her effort the other day at Bendigo where she sat near last and made up a stack of ground to finish fourth. Rises many lengths in class here, but she could be an exotic player if she gets the right run.

$500 Commanding Jewel Free Bet

Race Seven: Turnbull Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: I am steering clear of the big guns and going for the derby winner Ethiopia. I thought his first up run in the Dato was superb. He sat three deep no cover all the way, was off the bit 800m out, yet kept finding and hit the line better than anything else. From barrier four, he should get a soft run near the fence and hopefully he can get clear space and attack the line. $18 is massive overs I feel.
Don’t Back Me: Southern Speed has barrier 14…surely she can’t win against this crack field, despite her being in cracking form.
Big Danger: Green Moon had the Dato won on the home turn and pretty much everywhere but the line. He was second up, so I expect him to be just about 100% for this. He is Australia’s best chance of winning any of the big three. December Draw was fantastic in the Underwood and he won this race last year. He looks well placed to repeat.
Roughie: Although Bossy ruled him out as a Cox Plate contender, I wouldn’t leave out Happy Trails here. He is flying at the moment and should be put to sleep from the rails draw and be given every hope of running 2000m and from a cups point of view, watch for Winchester. I loved his run in the Underwood and his work this week has been sharp.

$500 Ethiopia Free Bet

Race Eight: Gilgai Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: In, in and in on Bel Sprinter. Best bet of the day I think. With no Black Caviar or Hay List, he is certainly a challenger to being the best sprinter in Australia in training. Brilliant first up win at Moonee Valley and he’ll only improve on that. The form has been franked with Snitzem winning last Friday night.
Don’t Back Me: The two Moody runners might just need this hitout. Not sure if they are sharp enough to go with the top tip.
Big Danger: Spirit Of Boom looks to be the lone danger to Bel Sprinter. Fabulous fresh run in the Bobbie Lewis, with the form holding up thanks to We’re Gonna Rock finishing a close second in the Sir Rupert Clarke last weekend. He then went to Randwick for the Shorts and after settling a long way back, he attacked the line hard for fourth. The other key factor in his favour is the rider Michael Walker. Nobody in Australia is riding better than this guy at the moment.
Roughie: Big watch on Hallowell Belle. I like her alot as a racehorse and she has trialled quite nicely, suggesting to me she is ready to run a big race first up. Definitely include her in exotics.

$500 Bel Sprinter Free Bet

Race Nine: Headquarters Tavern Stakes 1410m Form Guide
Back Me: Value bet to end the day in the shape of Pied A Terre. Very talented galloper when right. He resumed the other day at Moonee Valley and to say he was stiff is an understatement. He got checked, held up…everything went against him. He has barrier two here, steps up in trip, back to his home track and Williams is on board. Get on at $11.
Don’t Back Me: Amah Rock and That’s The One just find too much bad luck in their races. They both are hugely talented, but can’t quite put it together. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if they won.
Big Danger: Fawkner was just electric when he resumed here a few weeks back over this track/distance. Sat midfield on the fence, shoved into the clear, was given a couple down the side and he burst away to win well. He looks like he’ll get back here, but it’ll still allow him to use that turn of foot.
Roughie: Menados was stiff, stiff and more stiff the other day at Caulfield. Just could not get a crack at them and was an immediate blackbooker for every punter in Australia. If he gets a decent run and some luck, look out.

$500 Pied A Terre Free Bet