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Adam Page gives us his brief runner by runner look at Saturday’s 2011 The BMW at Rosehill racecourse, view his early look at the race.

This time honoured race, first run in 1963, has been a good horses race. Kingston Town, Bonecrusher, Beau Zam, Octagonal, Makybe Diva and the list goes on. Come Saturday, one of these 11 runners will have their name along side some of Australasias best horses as a winner of the BMW.

1. Zavite

Suprised many with an all the way victory in the Ranvet at 100/1. He’ll only be better off with a firmer surface and should have bolted in this race last year but he was wide throughout. No reason why he can’t win here.

2. Hawk Island

Travelled well in the run but found Zavite and Descerado too slick in the run home. If the heavens opened up, he’d be a sneaky chance but a firm track just about puts him out of the equation.

3. Illustrious Blue

He finally gets a firm track and steps to an ideal distance. He doesn’t handle wet ground, he is much better on top of it. Not saying he can win but he’ll give a sight at odds.

4. Ginga Dude

Has been disappointing this time in, especially in the Albury Cup. He ran third to So You Think in the Spring but he hasn’t brought that form into the Autumn. Happy to leave him out.

5. Mourayan

Was given a lovely ride by Nick Hall and battled on well last week in the Manion Cup. He hasn’t won yet in Australia and he is a one-pace type, but if Rodd can get rolling on him from about the 800m and turn this into a slog, he is in with a good place chance.

6. Descerado

Caulfield Cup winner from last year who has returned in outstanding fashion this time in. Was wide throughout yet still found the line strongly in the Chipping Norton then Nash just went that fraction too early in the Ranvet and that cost the horse the race. I’ll be very surprised if he gets beat here.

7. Linton

Beat all but Shocking in the Australian Cup after he dragged the winner into the race. No doubting his status as an up and coming superstar but is it all too soon for him? Then again, Lloyd has sent him down so that has to be respected. If the pace is crazy up front, he’ll look the winner but I think immaturity may get to him late.

8. Maluckyday

Rated by many as the best stayer in Australia. Yes, he did run second in the Melbourne Cup, but remember his only group win came in the Lexus Stakes on Derby day last year. Jimmy Cassidy reckons he’ll bolt in this race and he is a very good judge of horses and the amount of ability they have. He needs to stand up and win a good race.

9. Cedaberg

One of the better backed roughies to win this race. Should have won the Mornington Cup but rider Michael Walker went for home too early, then he was galloped on in the Australian Cup when finishing seventh, four lengths from Shocking. Olly rides, drawn well and will be making his own luck on the pace. This isn’t a vintage edition of this race so I think he can be in the first four.

10. Extra Zero

Ran on strongly in the Albury Cup to just fail picking up Paddy O’Reilly. Not sure if WFA suits him but he has come back really well this prep. Wouldn’t leave him out.

11. Laristan

Ran a solid race in the Australian Cup when finishing sixth. Another horse that might not be suited at WFA. If he gets a dry track, then look out for him because he can win if he gets the right run.

Selections: 6 Descerado, 1 Zavite, 8 Maluckyday, 9 Cedaberg

Written by Adam Page

 
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