Melbourne racing this Saturday heads to Caulfield for a strong nine race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:48) : Louise Chapple Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Really keen on the Mick Price first starter 3 China Dream (Best Odds: $6.00), who debuts here off the back of a couple of outstanding jump outs here on December 22 and December 29 respectively. I’ve loved what I’ve seen there, and I will be shocked if this colt doesn’t measure up.
Big Danger: 6 The Seductress (Best Odds: $9.00) was a drifter in betting when racing at Bendigo but that message didn’t get through to the filly as she showed a lovely turn of foot to win impressively. Start prior she ran third to subsequent Moonee Valley winner Dalradian. She’ll prove hard to hold out.
Roughie: 1 Moshway (Best Odds: $13.00) was specked at odds when debuting in the Maribyrnong Trial (1000m) at Flemington where he showed good early speed to lead and he fought on well behind Sweet Sherry. Claro Del Blanco franked the form by winning the Ballarat Magic Millions Clockwise Classic, and with Moshway, he should be improved with the prep under the belt.
Race Two (13:22) : Chris Boothroyd Handicap (84) 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Yellen (Best Odds: $3.50) drops back to the mile after running over 2000m here on Boxing Day where she attempted to lead all the way, but got tired over the final 150m when running third to Yulong Baby. Back to 1600m is perfect, and I’d love to see her ridden off speed, as we saw with her when she produced those two outstanding wins at Flemington and Moonee Valley respectively.
Big Danger: 4 Anaphora (Best Odds: $2.75) steps up to the mile after running over 1400m on Boxing Day here when she worked home strongly to just miss out on picking up in form mare Danestroem. Her lone win at this distance came at this track, and she is clearly knocking on the door to break through. Looks well placed here.
Roughie: 3 Defrost My Heart (Best Odds: $19.00) is a talented galloper that resumes for Chris Waller. This mare had a really solid prep in the Winter, winning a few races in town before being sent to the paddock. She’s had a couple of trials in Sydney, but has been brought to Melbourne, which is a good lead IMO. Watch for market moves.
Race Three (13:57) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 7 (90) 1800m:
Back Me: Back in grade should 3 Tashbeeh (Best Odds: $2.00). I was quite keen on him in the Lord Stakes (1700m) but he just got left flat footed out the back and was perhaps ridden a touch negative. He is better when he can sit two/three pairs back in the run, and if that can eventuate here, he can definitely bounce back to winning form.
Big Danger: 5 River’s Lane (Best Odds: $8.00) is on the back up from last Saturday at Morphettville where he chased hard to just miss out on picking up Gravitational. He has run well in Melbourne before, and was a Flemington winner last season, so the class will be no issue, and with the claim, he looks very well suited at the weights.
Roughie: 8 Kincaple Chief (Best Odds: $17.00) steps up in grade after running at Ladbrokes Park last time out when working home well late to run fourth to Kaniana, beaten just over two lengths. He is a bit of a tease, as his record shows, but he is on the limit here and will appreciate the step up to 1800m.
Race Four (14:32) : Helen Cox Handicap (78) 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Yulong Baby (Best Odds: $2.80) was given a peach by Craig Newitt to win over 2000m here on Boxing Day, sitting behind the speed before peeling out and letting down strongly over the concluding stages. Back in trip will be no issue, and while she has to rise a bit in weight, her class should just about get her home here.
Big Danger: 6 Flying Light (Best Odds: $4.20) took on the older horses at Flemington last start over 2000m and tried his heart out when a close up second to Crimson Cape. He has been up for a while, but he continues to race well, and the month freshen up between runs is perfect.
Roughie: 5 Tempered (Best Odds: $8.50) is a tough on speed runner for the in form Ellerton/Zahra yard who ran over the mile at Ladbrokes Park last Wednesday where he led all the way and kicked on very strongly for a narrow but impressive win, where he was headed off, but fought under hard riding. 1800m should be no issue for him and he’ll take some running down.
Race Five (15:07) : Jack Dunn Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Chase The Horizon (Best Odds: $4.40) ran over this track/distance on Boxing Day when running a close up second to Golden Spin, where he had the charmed run behind the tempo and finished his race off nicely, only to be bloused late. Confident he can turn the tables and he should get the gun run from the barrier.
Big Danger: 1 Golden Spin (Best Odds: $4.00) produced a lovely turn from off the speed to win that race mentioned above, building up good momentum to record his third straight win. Meets the top tip 2kg worse off at the weights, and draws wide, but he is a winner and winners should always be respected.
Roughie: 7 Geoff (Best Odds: $17.00) resumes here for Robbie Griffiths. This gelding debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic and was very dominant in winning there. Time was solid and there have been two subsequent winners coming from that race. No trials, but he creates interest for me, so watch for market moves.
Race Six (15:42) : Timothy Rourke Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Giggly (Best Odds: $5.50) debuted at Geelong and ran a nice race when second to Single Note before going to Benalla where she sat on speed and careered away for a rather effortless win. Form out of that race is a tad suspect, but the time compared well for the meeting. Has upside, trained on the track and remains at 1400m, which looks ideal.
Big Danger: 1 Former kiwi Jacqui’s Joy (Best Odds: $5.50) has been impressive since crossing the Tasman, winning two from two, including a super win over this track/distance on Boxing Day, coming from last in a slowly run race. Has to rise in weight, but there is plenty to like about her and she can win again for sure despite the negatives against her.
Roughie: 7 Miss Clooney (Best Odds: $13.00) ran third in that race Jacqui’s Joy saluted in, and while she had her chance, her effort was pretty good. Her two runs prior were very good, and she now gets a nice little weight pull on the horse mentioned above, so turning the tables wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Race Seven (16:22) : Ewen Stafford Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 The New Boy (Best Odds: $5.50) has showed a bit of fight this time in, where he normally drops out, so that’s a sign for me that he has come back in super form. He sat outside the speed over this track/distance last time out and fought on well when running third to the Mick Price pair of Volcanic Ash and Duke Of Brunswick, both of which I think can win in the following two races. Hard to beat, especially if he leads.
Big Danger: 10 Baby Don’t Cry (Best Odds: $7.00) will appreciate the weight relief IMO after lumping 57kg last start at Echuca where she was a disappointing fifth to Lika Shadow. I’ll excuse her for that given she had to drag the field up to the tearaway leader. She should do no work from gate one, and her form prior was excellent.
Roughie: 11 Winter Palace (Best Odds: $26.00) hasn’t raced since December 6 when resuming at Geelong, making up nice ground late to run sixth to Pendles, beaten just under three lengths. Harder here, but he is a proven city performer and the extra distance and fitness will only be beneficial.
Race Eight (17:02) : Billie Swan Handicap (90) 1200m:
Back Me: Really good race here. Leaning towards 7 Duke Of Brunswick (Best Odds: $2.60), because I think back to 1200m is perfect. He tried his heart over 1400m here on Boxing Day but had to settle for a narrow second to stablemate Volcanic Ash. Back 200m in trip is perfect, he should be ready fitness wise and will prove awfully hard to hold out.
Big Danger: 9 Herstory (Best Odds: $6.50) resumes here for Peter Moody. This talented mare hasn’t raced since September when running fourth over the mile at Moonee Valley. Recent jump out here was very impressive, she runs well fresh and stable is having a nice run with their fillies and mares at the moment.
Roughie: 1 Mighty Like (Best Odds: $21.00) has been freshened up since failing in the Kilmore Cup (1600m) where he was back near last in a slowly run race. He is another that looked slick in a recent jump out here and he has a ripping record at 1200m. One to watch for sure heading forward.
Race Nine (17:32) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 8 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Volcanic Ash (Best Odds: $2.90) was given a lovely ride by Mick Dee to win over 1400m here on Boxing Day, beating home stablemate Duke Of Brunswick, who I am keen on this afternoon. Hardest test to date here, but he looks to have come back in good order and should eat up the mile.
Big Danger: 3 British General (Best Odds: $15.00) ran over 1400m at Flemington on New Years Day and just did too much work from the wide gate when running seventh to Underestimation. He should be at peak fitness now, drops 5.5kg from that run and he does look the leader. With a cheap sectional, he’ll take some running down.
Roughie: 6 Commanding Time (Best Odds: $41.00) resumed in that Volcanic Ash race and he simply couldn’t get into the race with 60kg on his back. Lovely weight drop here, fitter and his jump outs prior were encouraging. Doubt he can win, but he is a must for exotics.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Volcanic Ash
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Duke Of Brunswick
VALUE: Race Seven Number 11 Winter Palace
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg Two: 2, 4, 9, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 8
$50 Investment= 15.62% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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