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The Canberra Carnival concludes on Monday, with the eight race card highlighted by the Canberra Cup (2000m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Canberra Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Canberra Cup

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Race 1. (13:25) Canberra Rex Hotel (bm65) 1600m

Back Me

5 Antarctic Ocean (Bet Now: $3.40) is a lightly raced son of Proisir for Bjorn Baker who is building up a decent enough record. He comes here off the back of a win at Bathurst over 1400m where he led throughout under a very positive steer from Larena and gave nothing else a look in. Harder here, but he’s going about it the right way.

Danger

8 Abiding (Bet Now: $1.80) could be potentially dangerous here for the WaterBott team. Had three trials leading into his first run for the new stable, which came here over 1400m, leading throughout and although he scraped in, he really did put the foot down from around the 600m mark so was entitled to feel the pinch. Looks to sit on speed here and be hard to run down.

Long Shot

Blake McDougall does seem to get very on well with 7 Trying (Bet Now: $16.00) and he is booked to ride the local gelding, so I’m including him. Ran over 1800m at Wagga last time when getting back and failing to come on in a disappointing performance, but like him back to the mile from the soft gate and big tick that McDougall rides.

Race 2. (14:00) Senpos (bm60) 1300m

Back Me

7 Il Professionale (Bet Now: $4.60) for me. Keith Dryden trains this mare, who landed some good bets when finishing off with real purpose to win first up at Wagga before going to Moruya and on face value, was disappointing, but did get back in the run and failed to get into the race really. Blinkers on and Nash on, so there’s real intent for this assignment.

Danger

3 Nieces And Nephews (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Joseph/Jones trained gelding that ran third in the Moruya race mentioned above. This son of Zariz sat on speed and looked to travel well but was one of the first put under pressure. Gave good fight though in the straight and battled away well to run third. Gets Rachel King to steer and she seems to ride these stable runners very well.

Long Shot

Can easily make a case for the Nick Olive gelding 6 Glenleigh Lad (Bet Now: $19.00). Resumed over 1200m at Goulburn when snagged back to get three wide cover from the wide gate and while he was never really a winning threat, he did make up late ground. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and on his home track, he’s dangerous.

Race 3. (14:35) Canberra Raiders.com.au Mdn 1400m

Back Me

11 Rond De Jambe (Bet Now: $2.20) remaining at 1400m is a query, but it was hard to miss her resumption at this track/distance. Got back to near last in the run and looked as if she’d finish midfield, but really savaged the line late and just missed out on picking up the hot pot Abiding. If this was 1600m+, good thing. Just remaining at 1400m is the only knock.

Danger

7 Costa Chin Chin (Bet Now: $3.80) has had numerous chances to break the maiden tag but this Rob Potter gelding is getting close to getting win number one. On the quick back up after racing at Cowra on Monday where he got back and finished off strongly, just missing out on picking up Maci Tess. Bigger track and up to 1400m, think he’ll run well.

Long Shot

3 Unrestricted (Bet Now: $4.60) is worth another look for Bjorn Baker. Market said he was no chance when debuting over 1200m, nearly doubling his opening price, and he ran accordingly when midfield. Off that, hard to back with confidence, but gets Blinkers first time and gets J Mac to steer, so an improved showing is on the cards.

Race 4. (15:10) Opc It Hcp (c1) 1400m

Back Me

3 Cavalier Charles (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the good thing on the program. Matty Dale trains this Denman three year old, that was an impressive winner on debut at Wagga before going to Moruya and charging home from near last on the turn to run second to Gorush Lightning. If he can take advantage of gate one, he’ll be too good for these.

Danger

5 Rosy Dawn (Bet Now: $3.60) is a daughter of Al Maher for Norm Gardner who resumed over 1200m at Wagga when a late drifter in betting as favourite, parading like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out. Just got too far back but liked the way she finished her race off. Up to 1400m, looks the only key threat to Cavalier Charles.

Long Shot

2 Bullet Storm (Bet Now: $5.00) can be an improver here I feel for Brad Widdup. He ran over this track/distance last time out where he had the perfect sit in behind the speed and you’d have to say his finale was disappointing. Think a more truly run 1400m contest will suit him more and Hippo steers so think he can improve.

Race 5. (15:50) Tab Lickety Split Mdn Plate 1000m

Back Me

10 Phoenician Queen (Bet Now: $2.60) gets the nod. John Thompson trains this daughter of Hallowed Crown, who is on debut off the back of two trials, the latest coming over 900m at Rosehill and liked the way she moved without really being extended when fourth to Archanna. Nash rides for start one and he did ride her in that Rosehill trial.

Danger

9 Maya Miracle (Bet Now: $4.50) is a daughter of Epaulette that resumes for Joe Cleary. This filly has had a few chances to break the maiden tag and while she hasn’t won, she hasn’t been far off. Gets in with a lightweight after the claim and you’d like to think the stable has her forward enough for this.

Long Shot

11 Smartkap (Bet Now: $12.00) is worth a look here. The Joseph/Jones stable trains this filly, who has had two career outings, both coming over 900m at the Sapphire Coast. On debut she ran a close up third to Sisters Esteem. Then next time out was five wide on speed so a total forgive. Should get a good run from the gate and prove a knockout hope.

Race 6. (16:30) Canberra Guineas 1400m

Back Me

Looks pretty straight forward here with the James Cummings trained 1 Knickpoint (Bet Now: $1.80). Wet track brought him undone first up at Warwick Farm behind noted swimmer Epic Dan. Found firmer footing at Canterbury, got a lovely ride from J Mac and he bolted up in an impressive win. 1400m from gate one, third up, he’s very likeable.

Danger

2 Savoury (Bet Now: $4.40) has some talent. Bjorn Baker three year old that showed some good ticker to win last time out over 1250m at Canterbury. He was there to be run down in the straight but he kept finding and was too good. Has the early speed to overcome the wide gate and good lead that J Mac remains on for this race.

Long Shot

I’m very wary of 8 Foxborough (Bet Now: $10.00). Was hot on her as an Oaks horse during the Spring but she let me down. Spelled, resumed at this track/distance in the Guineas Preview and she gave them an absolute spanking in a sharp return. Clearly more depth this time around, but she showed in the Spring she has a touch of class.

Race 7. (17:15) Canberra Cup 2000m

Back Me

Really keen to see 9 Mugatoo (Bet Now: $2.15) up to 2000m. 2/2 in Australia for Kris Lees, the latest coming over 1800m on the Kenso track where he looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly despite lumping 60kg and sitting off a slow speed. Down in the weights, gate one, enormous upside…looks the pony to bet on.

Danger

It looks as if Chris Waller has worked out 1 Eastender (Bet Now: $4.40). Was just fair early on when Waller first got him, but this prep, he’s been excellent. Loved the way he found the line late first up at Warwick Farm before going to the Parramatta Cup two weeks ago and worked home strongly when a narrow second to Mustajeer. 2000m, third up, he looks well placed.

Long Shot

Would not shock at all if 11 Maid Of Ore (Bet Now: $12.00) won. She looks to have come back in really good order for Nick Olive. Latest run came in the Canberra Mile where she was back near last in the run but finished her race off with real purpose when third to Cinquedea. She’ll eat up 2000m and can sit much closer in the run.

Race 8. (17:55) Ncg Services (bm65) 1000m

Back Me

2 Glamour Cat (Bet Now: $2.30) in the get out. This mare got within a lip of winning at Canterbury two back before racing in a Highway at Randwick last Saturday when four wide throughout and tiring late, but far from disgraced. If she can get luck in the run from the tricky gate, with J Mac remaining on, she looks the one to beat.

Danger

Once upon a time, 10 Nobody’s Puppet (Bet Now: $6.00) was a 800m-900m speed demon, but as she is getting older, she seems to be relaxing a bit more in the run and seeing out a trip better. Ran over 1100m at Bathurst last time and chased strongly but couldn’t quite get there when second to impressive winner Red Axe. On her home track, little query at 1000m at this level, but is racing well.

Long Shot

Think back to 1000m and a more conservative steer will help 5 Trumbo (Bet Now: $12.00). Ran over 1375m at Cowra last time out when putting pressure on in front outside the speed and tried hard but weakened late. Does no work from the gate and I think with a cold ride, he could be dangerous at big odds. Certainly goes in the Quaddie.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Cavalier Charles

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Mugatoo

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 7 Il Professionale

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 8, 10, 11, 12

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 9

Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 10

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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