The premier race meeting at Hobart is Hobart Cup Day and that comes around on Monday, with the feature race being the $200,000 Group lll Hobart Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres from the 1150m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
Race One (12:57) : Tas Horse Transport Maiden 1100m:
Back Me: 5 A Choice Scotch (Best Odds: $2.20) looks a good thing to kick off the program. She attempted to lead all the way at Launceston last time out and just missed out when a close second to Greenmount Lass. Oliver goes aboard, and just really looks the winner.
Big Danger: 6 Berry Wise Fox (Best Odds: $7.00) has been given a month freshen up since running a game third to You Didn’t over this track/distance. No doubt will be wound up for this and you have to respect anything Siggy Carr steers.
Roughie: 3 George’s Cambol (Best Odds: $4.60) resumed in that Greenmount Lass race and was a well supported favourite, but ran quite poorly when finishing second last, beaten 3.6L. He can definitely bounce back if he brings his best form.
Race Two (13:32) : MMIB Insurance Maiden/Class One Plate 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Olly’s A Star (Best Odds: $3.30) brokethrough for a well deserved maiden win over the mile at Launceston on January 20, sitting wide no cover for the trip yet drew away. Now that he has got that winning feeling, he can go right on with it.
Big Danger: 5 Bidirectional (Best Odds: $7.50) ran fourth in that race Olly’s A Star saluted in, and is effort was quite solid I thought considering he came from a midfield position to run fourth, beaten just over three lengths. This is his first prep, and it’s his fifth run, so how much petrol is left remains to be seen, and he is drawn wide, but with luck, he is a contender.
Roughie: 13 Genuine Art (Best Odds: $6.50) closed off strongly over 1400m at Launceston last start when fourth to Clairborne King, beaten just under a length. Has upside and will love the step up to the mile.
Race Three (14:07) : Winning Edge Handicap (Class One) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Sphero (Best Odds: $2.90) looks the clear horse to beat. He worked home strongly over this trip at Launceston on January 27 when running second, beaten half a length. Draws much better here and should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 6 You Didn’t (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over 1100m here a tick over a month back and was brilliant in sitting speed most of the way and bolting up. Draws awkwardly here, but he gets the services of D Oliver and there should be upside.
Roughie: 1 Polizei (Best Odds: $12.00) resumes here after a pretty solid Winter/Spring prep. Recent trial at Longford was quite encouraging, and though better over further, he gets the senior rider aboard and can sprint well fresh.
Race Four (14:42) : R N Worbey Constructions Handicap (Class Two) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Box Of Frogs (Best Odds: $4.80) copped a bit too much pressure over 1100m here a month back and faded out of it late when running fifth to Aquila Reale, beaten 4.6L. Draws to lead comfortably here, and Pires remains on.
Big Danger: 2 Boart (Best Odds: $18.00) drops back in trip after running over 1400m here a couple of weeks back when working home alright late in the piece behind D’inzeo. Back to 1200m is ideal I think, and if the speed is on, he’ll charge late.
Roughie: 1 Luxembourg (Best Odds: $8.00) is a very talented horse, and probably the best horse in the race, but he is a real nutcase. He hasn’t raced since December 2 when wide no cover for the trip. If he brings his best form, he’ll win. But he is very hard to trust.
Race Five (15:17) : Mitre 10 Elwick Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Gee Gee Double Dee (Best Odds: $1.06) looks a moral here. Unbeaten in three outings, the latest over this trip at Launceston when bolting up as a $1.10 pop. He’ll start similar odds here, but he should just be too good.
Big Danger: 8 Mariah’s Magic (Best Odds: $10.00) debuted over 1100m at Launceston and worked home nicely late in the piece when running second to Hot Dipped, beaten 2.5L. She looks to have a fair bit of upside, and she will be strong at the end of a hard 1200m.
Roughie: 7 Little Elsa (Best Odds: $31.00) debuted over 1000m here a tick under a month back and showed dazzling early toe to lead throughout and win quite impressively by a space, and the time was good. Not sure she can beat the top tip, but she should acquit herself well.
Race Six (15:55) : Les Lees Strutt Stakes 2100m:
Back Me: 2 Alamonteel (Best Odds: $3.50) looks nearly close a good thing here. She ran over 2040m at the Valley last time out and quite frankly, she was given a horrible ride. Clearly should have won for mine but just had no luck. Senior rider goes aboard here, draws well and she’ll be very strong at the end.
Big Danger: 1 Gee Gees Top Notch (Best Odds: $3.50) is the best local filly in the race by some distance, so she has to rate as a threat. She ran in the Thousand Guineas (1600m) last time out and looked home, but was bloused right on the peg by Miss Choosey. Big query at the 2100m, but home track advantage and is a winner.
Roughie: 3 Sebring Sally (Best Odds: $4.40) comes here off the back of a very good second over the mile at Moonee Valley when second to Lahqa. Gives the impression she will eat up the 2100m and she has the Waller polish.
Race Seven (16:35) : Betfair Exchange Hobart Cup 2400m:
Back Me: 3 Quick Strike (Best Odds: $4.40) was very game in defeat last time out over 2400m at Caulfield where he lumped 60kg, sat on speed and stuck on when fourth to All I Survey, beaten just under 2.5L. Gets a lovely weight drop here, and whenever Chris Waller sends horses away from Sydney/Melbourne, he rarely leaves empty handed.
Big Danger: 6 Up Cups (Best Odds: $5.00) is the best of the local chances. He has strung together two on the bounce, the latest over 2200m here when winning the Summer Cup. Meets the runner up 4kg better off, and that is the main lead up of the locals, so he is the clear pick in that regard, and he will stay all day, and home ground advantage is big during Carnival time.
Roughie: 15 Settler’s Stone (Best Odds: $34.00) ran over 2100m at Launceston last time out and worked home strongly late in the piece when running a game fourth to Hugo, beaten just under a length. He’ll eat up the 2400m, down on the minimum and looks good overs at around the $31 mark.
Race Eight (17:15) : UBET Thomas Lyons Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Admiral (Best Odds: $1.06) is $1.15, and quite frankly, he should be $1.01. He is the best horse in Tassie by lengths as we have seen in recent times, the latest over 1200m at Launceston. Extra 200m is perfect, fitter. Should be winning this, and I am confident he would measure up if he was sent to Melbourne/Sydney.
Big Danger: 7 Geegees Soprano (Best Odds: $51.00) resumed over 1200m here at big odds and closed off very strongly when running a close up third to Silver Bolt, who is one of the real up and comers in Tassie racing. Will love the step up in trip and could well fill a place.
Roughie: 6 Dream Roller (Best Odds: $31.00) has been freshened up since running on nicely late in the Devonport Cup (1880m). Unplaced in three efforts at 1400m, but he will be strong late and looks the overs at $31.
Race Nine (17:55) : Tassie Instant Marquees Handicap (72) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Livermore (Best Odds: $5.00) looks a great bet to finish the program. He has simply been awesome at his past two outings, both at Launceston, with the latest over the mile. Back to 1400m is no issue, and with normal luck, he should just about take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 4 D’Inzeo (Best Odds: $9.00) scooted along in front at this track/distance a couple of weeks back and though tired late, he did enough to get the job done impressively. He’ll run along again and give them something to chase. Last 50m will test.
Roughie: 6 Pengalas Gee Gee (Best Odds: $81.00) is having start 101 and has been a great servant to racing in Tassie. His best days are clearly behind him, but he’ll sit on speed and probably hold the lead, and with the little freshen up, he could be perhaps a touch sharper.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Alamonteel
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Sphero
VALUE: Race Two Number 2 Olly's A Star
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 15
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14
$50 Investment= 39.68% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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