The Sydney Spring Carnival winds down this Saturday at Randwick with the final Group l of the Spring in Sydney, the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m), highlighting the nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:35) : Capital Bluestone Kirkham Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 6 Showtime (Bet Now: $1.80) is a Snitzel colt trained by Team Hawkes who has probably been the pick of the triallers engaged here. He ran second in the official trials when leading most of the way before being grabbed late by Breeders Plate winner Khan. Looks a readymade two year old.
Big Danger: 2 Goodfella (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Snitzel colt on debut for Bjorn Baker. He has had two trials in preparation for his first day out at the races, the latest coming at Rosehill behind Didn’t Mention It. The official trial behind Piracy was encouraging and he should be respected.
Roughie: 7 Zatar (Bet Now: $34.00) is a More Than Ready colt trained by Team Snowden who was given a quiet time in the trial won by Condor Heroes. This boy is well bred given he is closely related to Group l performer Happy Hannah. He is a watch horse from a market perspective.
Race Two (13:15) : Royal Randwick Fashions On The Field Handicap (72) 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Pecans (Bet Now: $6.00) was ridden upside down when contesting the Reginald Allen (1400m) last time out where she was on speed throughout and faded late when fourth to Zenalcious. She is much better when ridden with cover and having the last say. If that eventuates here, she is a massive chance.
Big Danger: 2 Invincibella (Bet Now: $3.40) comes through the Reginald Allen also where she had a nice sit near the speed and for a few strides looked the winner, but she simply had no answers for the electric turn of foot Zenalicious had. Still very good in defeat I thought. Should be cherry ripe fitness wise now, and this is a very winnable race.
Roughie: 7 Reach For Heaven (Bet Now: $8.00) was smashed in betting when racing in a maiden on Newcastle Cup Day where he was given a lovely steer from Avdulla to attack the line and get the job done impressively. He looks a really progressive type that could certainly go down to Melbourne and perform at Stakes level. Up to 1400m is also ideal.
Race Three (13:50) : Bowermans Office FurnitureHandicap (85) 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Hipparchus (Bet Now: $4.20) resumed over this track/distance three weeks ago and I thought he was a real eye catcher late when running fifth to Fabrizio, who of course ran well in the Epsom last weekend. He bolted up second last time in, which was over 2000m, which does leave me with some reservations about him having enough dash to win, but he certainly has the quality.
Big Danger: I thought 8 Balmain Boy (Bet Now: $3.40) was close to a good thing last Wednesday at Rosehill and he loomed to win the race and beat everything bar Acatour, who produced the win of the day. Up to teh mile is going to really suit Balmain Boy, getting to peak fitness and last time he was at the mile, he was four lengths off Le Romain in the Randwick Guineas.
Roughie: 9 Tower Of Song (Bet Now: $7.50) comes through the same race as Balmain Boy and I thought his effort was very good, getting back to near last in the run before picking his way through without much room to run a fast finishing fourth. The mile will really suit, down in the weights and Avdulla steers.
Race Four (14:25) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1600m:
Back Me: Going to take the gamble that 5 Mysticism (Bet Now: $4.40) will be fit enough. She is around 70 days between runs since racing over the mile at Doomben in what looked a hot three year old and she was strong in the inferior ground behind a Group l performer in Sagaronne. Avdulla steers, she draws well and the speed will be on courtesy of the stablemate.
Big Danger: 3 Grand Rouge (Bet Now: $8.50) has been given a five week freshen up since getting the job done over 1400m here in a Highway. Stable has a great record in Highway races and though a query at the mile, he has to be respected.
Roughie: 12 Destined To Win (Bet Now: $16.00) was a hard luck story in the Distinctive Look Highway where he got badly checked halfway down the straight and lost all momentum and winning chance. Give him better luck here and he can sharply improve.
Race Five (15:00) : Adina Apartment Hotels Handicap (83) 2000m:
Back Me: 7 Broadside (Bet Now: $3.10) did a really good job I thought last time out over 1900m at Rosehill where he attempted to lead all the way and though he was quickly overtaken in the straight, he did fight on strongly to run third to My Guiliano, beaten a length. He should be up on speed here, perhaps controlling, and he has more upside than most here.
Big Danger: 5 My Guiliano (Bet Now: $3.40) won that race mentioned above and I thought his effort was very good in winning. He came off the speed that afternoon and though he took his time to wind up, he did end up finishing best and was strongest through the line. He’ll have no issue with the 2000m IMO, he’s hard fit and in the right stable. Ticks alot of boxes.
Roughie: 3 Thunder Down Under (Bet Now: $8.00) wasn’t really suited I thought when racing here last time out over the mile where he was back in the ruck and just couldn’t really get into the race behind Fabrizio. 2000m back to 1600m wasn’t ideal, so back up to 2000m is a tick and he could be a sharp improver here.
Race Six (15:35) : #theraces October Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 7 His Majesty (Bet Now: $5.00) for me here. At first glance, I was really disappointed with his effort in the Cameron (1350m) behind Chetwood, but on second look, his effort was very good given the leader/winner ran the last 600 in sub 34, making it hard for backmarkers to get involved. Bigger track will really suit and the last time he was here, he was unlucky behind Danish Twist, who has since gone on to win/place at Stakes level.
Big Danger: 6 Handfast (Bet Now: $3.40) attempted to lead all the way in the Bill Ritchie Handicap here last time out and gave a tremendous kick in front, but he just tired late when running a close up fourth to Sons Of John, beaten just under a length. That form was mixed when it came to the Epsom, but this bloke was very good in defeat and I think he should be ready now fitness wise.
Roughie: 1 Thunder Fantasy (Bet Now: $51.00) is such an interesting runner here. Had performed very well here before being sent to Hong Kong for a Derby prep where he won a lead up to it before running eighth. He has had two trials leading in for his return, both of which were run in fast time.
Race Seven (16:10) : Moet & Chandon Spring Champion Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 11 Yankee Rose (Bet Now: $2.60) is the obvious to my eye but it’s very interesting to see her engaged here. I thought her effort in defeat last Saturday in the Flight (1600m) was very good given she sat back in a slowly run race and had to make the move around 700m out, which left her gassed late. She looks as though she will eat up the 2000m and has a stack of upside compared to most here.
Big Danger: 1 Prized Icon (Bet Now: $4.40) was one of many unlucky runners in the Gloaming (1800m) where he got badly held up/checked at various stages in the straight and could have easily won with better luck. I thought his runs prior were off, but in hindsight, he does have Hartnell form, and that is the best in Australia at the moment.
Roughie: 5 Honeywine (Bet Now: $11.00) avoided most of the carnage in the Gloaming (1800m) where he had the suck run behind the leader and chased hard throughout to just miss. It was a real grinding effort and he was strong to the line, so I have no qualms with him running 2000m and the stable are just low flying at the moment
Race Eight (16:50) : TAB Angst Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Extensible (Bet Now: $3.10) was a month between runs when racing at Rosehill a fortnight back where she was confidently backed and got the job done in impressive fashion, aided by a lovely steer from Blake Shinn. Start prior she was nabbed on the peg by Antonio Giuseppe, who has since won again and placed in the Metropolitan, so the form reads very well, and this mare should have upside.
Big Danger: 4 Lady Le Fay (Bet Now: $3.60) took on the boys first up in the Bill Ritchie and she was a real eye catcher late, working home strongly to run fifth to Sons Of John, beaten a length. That was such an encouraging return and now she is taking on her sex, up to a suitable trip, fitter…ticks alot of boxes.
Roughie: 10 Unequivocal (Bet Now: $13.00) is the knockout runner at odds. She contested the Shannon (1500m) and looked outpaced in the early part of the straight but she worked home late with real purpose. Last time she ran against the mares came at Rosehill where she should have bolted in and had no luck.
Race Nine (17:30) : Sensis Dash (85) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Dixie Chick (Bet Now: $5.50) was backed as if unbeatable when resuming at Warwick Farm but she just had too much to do from the back whereas the eventual winner Faith’s Encore had a charmed run near the tempo and fought on strongly. Her only second up run saw her run a closing fourth in a race that included subsequent Stakes winner Chetwood.
Big Danger: 11 Top Me Up (Bet Now: $13.00) was pretty poor when resuming at Canterbury behind Fabrizio before back-to-back second placings, the latest coming last Wednesday at Rosehill behind the well above average three year old Morton’s Fork. He gets really good weight relief here and maps well.
Roughie: 4 Wonderbolt (Bet Now: $21.00) ran over this track/distance three weeks back in what looked a hot race where he sat midfield in the run and stuck to the task pretty gamely I thought behind Denpurr. Form has held up via No Doubt running well with no luck at Warwick Farm on Monday. He races well at Randwick and has a tidy second up record.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 11 Yankee Rose
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 10 Dixie Chick
VALUE: Race Two Number 8 Pecans
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 10
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 11
Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11
$50 Investment= 6.94% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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