7/6/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Stradbroke Handicap day

The biggest and best raceday Brisbane has to offer comes around this Saturday, with the premier race on the Queensland racing calender, the $1.3 Million AAMI Stradbroke Handicap (1400m), highlighting the program, and it is a race that has so many angles to look at…it takes a very special three year old filly to win the Stradbroke…is Srikandi that? Can Rebel Dane bring his best manners and fulfill his potential? Will Spirit Of Boom farewell racing in the best possible way? Can Sacred Star defy history?

Vilanova won the traditional lead up to the $500,000 Group l Channel Seven Queensland Derby (2400m), the $150,000 Group lll Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stakes (2200m) and would only need a repeat of that to go close to winning. But in saying that, he’ll have stiff company from the promising Elusive Runner, along with Amexed, Pinstripe Lane and the filly Rock Diva, who was very unlucky last week in the Oaks.

The final Group l for the babies this season is the $500,000 Tatts Group J J Atkins (1600m) and Chris Waller will look to continue his white form when he saddles up Brazen Beau, who was a tragedy beaten in the Sires Produce and only needs normal luck to win.

The other feature on the program is the $300,000 Group ll Brisbane Cup, where last weeks Eagle Farm Cup winner Moriarty looks the clear horse to beat.

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Race One (11:30) : Ambassador Travel Hampden Stakes 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Limehills (Best Odds: $7.50) on top in the opener. Paul Messara trained colt who made his debut back in January when a narrow second to Statton under the Canterbury lights. Hasn’t raced since, but trialled very sharply last week at Doomben, and also did have solid trial form behind Group l performers Modoc and Law prior to the debut run, so I’ll go with him here.
Big Danger: Tales Of Fashion (Best Odds: $10.00) was another that trialled well and then was given a lovely steer by Shinn to win the Lancaster first up at Doomben. Should get the gun run from the rails draw and there is no reason why he can’t win again, and he doesn’t lose anything with Chad Schofield in the saddle.
Roughie: Freezethemillions (Best Odds: $10.00) ran second to Tales Of Fashion in the Lancaster and would have won in one more stride he was coming home that quick. She then went to the Sires Produce and was far from disgraced when fourth to Time For War. Massive drop in depth here and should get a soft trip from the good draw.

$250 Limehills Free Bet

Race Two (12:00) : Strawberry Road Handicap 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: The compressed weights looks to suit Transporter (Best Odds: $4.40) quite nicely here. I thought he ran quite well in the Spear Chief last week. He never looked like a winning chance, but he stuck to the task quite gamely. Loves racing at Eagle Farm and strikes a very winnable race on his best form.
Big Danger: King Kamada (Best Odds: $13.00) was dreadful here last week, but that race ended up being fought out by those up near the speed, so I’m prepared to forgive him for that flop. Gets much needed weight relief and comes back to the mile, which could spark improvement. He is the one to watch.
Roughie: Veewap (Best Odds: $7.50) has been quite good since joining the Heathcoate stable. He busted his gut when chasing Regular a fortnight back in a close up third. Up to the mile suits and gets back to the bigger surroundings of Eagle Farm, and along with weight relief, he rates as a chance.

$250 Transporter Free Bet

Race Three (12:35) : Best Security Daybreak Lover 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Clearly Sir Moments (Best Odds: $3.60) is the one to beat here after his stunning win in the QLD Guineas last week, coming from a near impossible spot to dive between runners and nailing them in the last stride. Up to the mile looks ideal, and the small field suits his racing pattern perfectly. He did the same seven day back up last year and ran well in the J J Atkins, so that should pose no worries, and provided he has held his form, he should just about win again.
Big Danger: Liberty’s Choice (Best Odds: $4.60) could not have been ridden better by Shinn in the Guineas last week. He looked the winner 150m out, and even 50m out before Sir Moments burst through and nailed him. This horse has really turned the corner now, I think due to the fact he has been ridden off the speed and has something to chase. Looks the obvious threat.
Roughie: The knockout horse here is Oak ‘N’ Arthur (Best Odds: $67.00). Showed great promise during the Spring, and has carried it on into the Winter, savaging the line in all four runs this time in, including his win over the 1800m at the Gold Coast last time out. He is a big, strong type who needs galloping room, so barrier one is of some concern, but he is highly promising and shouldn’t be ignored.

$250 Sir Moments Free Bet

Race Four (13:10) : Evergreen Turf Lightning Handicap 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Speed galore here, so I think the winner will come from the back, and I’ll go with Cape Kidnappers (Best Odds: $2.60), who showed his true colours last start in the Chief De Beers, settling just off a hot tempo, peeling out and charging clear to win impressively. He’ll get a similar run here, back to 1000m suits and he is unbeaten at Eagle Farm. Looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Big Money (Best Odds: $7.50) is a promising up and comer from the Rod Northam yard in Scone. Impressive first up win at Muswellbrook, then went to the Scone Carnival and was a slick winner, earning himself a crack at this level. He can show gate speed, so I expect Tim Bell to have him either behind the leader or at worst three pairs back on the fence, and from there, he’ll be in a striking position provided he gets luck.
Roughie: Facile Tigre (Best Odds: $41.00) hasn’t been seen since finishing down the track in the Sunshine Coast Cup to Fillydelphia in January, but he does have an excellent fresh record, races well at Eagle Farm and should get a hot speed in front which will give him every chance to find the line. On his best form, he’d go close.

$250 Cape Kidnappers Free Bet

Race Five (13:45) : Virbac Dane Ripper Stakes 1400m

Back Me: Gee this is a ripping race for the fillies and mares. Going for the Perth mare Platinum Rocker (Best Odds: $13.00), who has done nothing wrong in two QLD runs this time in, both of which have been behind Srikandi. That filly had the weight pull and proved far too good, but the weight scale suits this mare perfectly, she is in form and has the barrier draw advantage.
Roughie: Coming back to mares grade should see Peron (Best Odds: $7.00) improve on her disappointing 10,000 run behind Spirit Of Boom after she caught the eye in the BTC Cup. She has promised so much during her career, and I think this is just about D-Day for her. She needs to show something to warrant her furthering her racing career.
Roughie: Seaside (Best Odds: $17.00 was given a lovely steer by McEvoy to win the Dark Jewel during the Scone Carnival, coming from off the pace and peeling out to the best part of the track and sprinting clear late. She has the fresh legs and some upside left, so she has to go in as a chance.

$250 Platinum Rocker Free Bet

Race Six (14:20) : Tatts Group J J Atkins 1600m

Back Me: With normal luck, Brazen Beau (Best Odds: $2.25) should take care of this lot and seal the champion Group l title this season for Nash Rawiller. He was terribly unlucky in the Sires Produce, getting badly held up at a crucial stage of the race, then losing momentum on the home turn before savaging the line late for a close up second to Time For War, who pinched it from the front. Extra distance is perfect, as is the bigger surroundings of Eagle Farm.
Big Danger: Got to forgive Pressing (Best Odds: $9.00) for his failure in the Sires. He got completely lost around the tight turning Doomben track and never had a winning chance from where he was. Worked very strongly on Tuesday and appears back on track for this. He’ll appreciate the bigger track and rates as a chance.
Roughie: If you backed Looks Like The Cat (Best Odds: $9.50) in the Sires, I wouldn’t be jumping off him as a chance here. Browne rode the track, not the horse, and was aggressive from the wide gate. To the colts credit, he stuck to the task very nicely behind Time For War and should be much better here ridden off the speed and find the line.

$250 Brazen Beau Free Bet

Race Seven (15:00) : Channel Seven Queensland Derby 2400m

Back Me: Trackwork is a very key element when deciding on which horse to bet on, and from what I saw on Tuesday with Elusive Runner (Best Odds: $6.00) , he’ll prove awfully hard to beat here. Dominant maiden winner at Goulburn three back, then worked home well after being a long way back behind Pinstripe Lane at Rosehill, then should have won at Randwick had it not been for Collett losing his reins in the straight. He looks to have plenty of upside and should relish the rise to 2400m, and there is no better rider in big races at the moment than Tommy Berry.
Big Danger: As said above, Vilanova (Best Odds: $5.00) only needs to reproduce his Grand Prix win to go close here. He can be a very hard horse to follow, but his win there was outstanding when you consider the bias towards leaders and the fact he was increasing the lead with every stride. I very much doubt that anything from the Grand Prix will turn the tables, so he rates as the serious threat.
Roughie: If you like either Telepathic or Rock Diva (Best Odds: $10.00) , I wouldn’t totally rule them out here. Telepathic was given a howler of a steer in the Grand Prix, sitting three wide all the way, so her effort to finish as close as she did was incredible and only needs normal luck to go close here, while Rock Diva was forced to sit too far back in the Oaks last week. Had she drawn a barrier, she goes close to winning I think.

$250 Elusive Runner Free Bet

Race Eight (15:40) : AAMI Stradbroke Handicap 1400m

Back Me: Putting the champion mare Red Tracer (Best Odds: $11.00) on top. Her Autumn was a bit up and down, but mostly up. Brilliant first up win in the Millie Fox, then ran an unlucky third to Appearance in the Canterbury Stakes before running a horrible tenth in the George Ryder. She was freshened up and was much better in the Queen Of The Turf, running third to Diamond Drille. First up here since then, but she has looked very sharp in two barrier trial wins. She was touted as a mare heading over to run in France, but her form couldn’t justify it, so she is nearing the end, but she appears to have some spark left, and given her record, I think she gets in pretty well at the weights, and the forecast of showers will bring her right into the mix, especially on this track, where it doesn’t take much rain for it to be bottomless. I’m keen to take on the filly Srikandi. You have to be a high class filly eg Private Steer to win this race as a three year old, and while I concede she is very good, beating up mares on a tight track is a different ball game compared to the toughest 1400m race in Australia.
Big Danger: Knoydart (Best Odds: $9.00) was quite good I thought in the Doomben 10,000 considering he was out the back in a slowly run race, and add on pace bias to that, his effort to make up ground late was really eye catching, and he still appeared to have upside left. Did place behind Lankan Rupee a couple of times at Group l level during the Autumn and gets in here with 53kg. He’ll prove very hard to beat.
Roughie: Bit surprised to see a gap in betting between Spirit Of Boom and Temple Of Boom, because I think Temple Of Boom (Best Odds: $26.00) represents the great value here. Connections have ridden him more aggressively from the gates since coming back from a failed Sydney campaign, and he has been fantastic, winning the Victory Stakes before running fourth and second respectively in the BTC Cup and Doomben 10,000. He meets his brother 2kg better off for a last stride loss in the 10,000, so at the price, I think he represents the better value.

$250 Red Tracer Free Bet

Race Nine (16:20) : Croser Brisbane Cup 2400m

Back Me: No reason to jump off Precedence (Best Odds: $5.00). His two runs this time in have been excellent, firstly in the Hollindale behind Streama on a shifty track, then was no match for the turn of foot produced by Zephyron in the Premier’s Cup. Meets that horse 2kg better off at the weights, Bowman takes over and draws to get a lovely sit off the pace.
Big Danger: Moriarty (Best Odds: $4.20) is the one to beat after his brilliant Eagle Farm Cup win last week, taking a narrow gap between Wistful and Mr O’Ceirin and sprinting clear late to win with something up the sleeve. The weight is a concern, but take away Precedence, he isn’t taking on much here compared to what he faced early on in the Autumn.
Roughie: Pretty Pins (Best Odds: $11.00) was a touch unlucky in the Premier’s Cup, getting badly held up along the rails before charging home late for third. Does she have the ability and class to win this? I doubt it, but she is a must for exotics

$250 Precedence Free Bet

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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 7, 11, 15, 16

Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 10, 18

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.