Derby day and Cup day have now past so Thursday see’s the third day of the Flemington carnival in which the Crown Oaks is the feature for the fillies over 2500m. The meeting consists of a nine race card including the Group 3 G.H Mumm Stakes and three other Listed races.
The weather in Melbourne continues to shine so the track should again be a good or dead condition come race time so we are likely to be racing in perfect conditions once again.
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Race One: Flemington Style Plate (70) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Mambo Lady was impressive last start winning by a big margin over the mile. She is the likely to be the leader in the race which is why i have her on top, seeings the rail will be out 3m on Thursday i think for the first few races you will want to be close to it on the speed. She is $3.30 chance in betting and looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: La Veuve raced well on a heavy track last start when hitting the line well. I think she will be better on top of the ground so in saying that she will go close in a race like this. She is $5.50 in betting and has attracted decent support to beat the two in the market.
Roughie: Cardiac has hit the line well her last two starts and i think she is the horse at decent odds that could win this race. She is well bred and Jason Warren will have her fit and ready for a race like this so she will be a contender.
$650 Mambo Lady Free Bet
Race Two: Swisse Wellness Trophy (90) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Canonized got well back at Moonee Valley last start and hit the line strongly late, he didn’t get much luck on this occasion either so he should have finished closer on the line. He has drawn well here and will get a good run on the fence throughout and i think there will be enough speed in this race to set it up for his fast finish. He is at very good odds of $10 in betting which is a great each way bet in the race.
Big Danger: Mintaro should have won last start when held up throughout the straight and he was only narrowly beaten on the line. His two starts before that he raced very well both at Seymour where he won won and was again narrowly beaten on the other occasion. He has a 50% place record and he looks very well placed here where he is $7 in betting.
Roughie: Red Inca hasn’t really had things go her way this preparation and i think she is a much better horse than the results suggest. She will need some luck from barrier 15 although if she can get into a good spot throughout the run at $26 in betting i think she is a big chance against this field and could provide a very good each way bet in the race.
$650 Canonized Free Bet
Race Three: Gucci Icons Of Heritage Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Miss Steele had absolutely no luck last start at Moonee Valley where she was held up all the way down the straight and should have arguably won the race if she had a run. Form suggests she is better second up having won once from won try and she has placed at Flemington from her only try in a good race. She is a $4.60 chance in betting and i think she is definitely the horse to beat in the race at the weights.
Big Danger: More Than Faith will be having her first Victorian start in the race but her Sydney form that she brings down is very good and she is a consistent filly having won twice from four starts and placing on another occasion. She has a good record at the distance having won twice from three starts and at $4.40 in betting she has been well supported.
Roughie: Melrose Place didn’t get much luck last start in what i think is a very good form race heading into the Heritage Stakes. She drops slightly in weight here and Melbourne Cup winning jockey Damian Oliver takes the ride and if he continues on from how he rode on Tuesday she will be hard to beat at very good odds of $11.
$650 Miss Steele Free Bet
Race Four: G.h. Mumm Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Anise isn’t a Caulfield horse and she was posted three wide throughout the run last start so due to those two reasons i am happy to put a line through that run and on previous form she is a very good chance in this race. She has a great record over the distance and she has placed at her only time over the course and distance which is a bonus. She is $17 in betting and i think she has a very good chance in this race against this field.
Big Danger: Diamond Earth is coming out of Group 1 company which she raced very well in finishing a close seventh in the race won by Buffering. She will have to carry the top weight on Thursday but that is justified with her recent form including a good win over Plucky Belle who franked that form on Tuesday when winning well. She is $5 in betting and looks the biggest danger in the open race.
Roughie: Flash Of Doubt i think will jump way over the odds in this race as she comes into it with some very good form in open class races. She has a good record on a dead track which it is likely to be on Thursday. Her record over the distance and track isn’t great but at the big odds of $21 i think she is a good chance of blowing out this field and she must be included in multiples.
$650 Anise Free Bet
Race Five: Subzero Challenge (bm90) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Footy Fan drops 5kg from her previous two runs and she has drawn a good barrier in the race. She is likely to get the box seat in the race and she comes here with some very good Sydney form. She has won five times from nine starts and placed on three other occasions so at $6 in betting you can back her each way with confidence.
Big Danger: Members Joy drops sharply in grade here and on her last start run in Listed company she has to be respected. She was scratched from a Group 3 race on Tuesday to run here which suggests connections are confident that she can win and she definitely looks the major danger to our on top selection.
Roughie: Dash Divine is a lightly raced mare who comes into this race with a good record having won four times from twelve starts. He past three runs i thought have all been good and this looks a similar class race and at $17 i think she has to be kept safe especially because she is drawn to get a very good run throughout.
$650 Footy Fan Free Bet
Race Six: Crown Oaks 2500m Form Guide
Back Me: May’s Dream was beaten as a short priced favourite last start although i still thought her run was very good. She has had six career starts and has placed in all of them including two wins, her run two starts ago in the Thousand Guineas was very good and i think she will get better with distance which she gets on Thursday. She is very good odds in the race at $4.80 and i am very happy to take those odds.
Big Danger: Kirramosa has gotten better and better with distance and nothing suggests she wont run the trip on Thursday after beaten quite a few of the main chances in the race on Saturday. She has been the best backed runner in the race since that win and must be kept safe at $3.20 in betting.
Roughie: Solicit i think is likely to roll forward in the race which can often be an advantage in these distance races for three year olds as others are hoping to get their mounts to run the trip which often provides a slow tempo. I think she can go forward and dictate the race and if she can get the right tempo she should stay the distance be hard to run down at $10 in betting.
$650 May’s Dream Free Bet
Race Seven: Connoisseur Stakes 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Le Mans has contested some very good form races of late so he finds a much more winnable race here on Thursday. He has the ability to roll forward or take a sit depending on how the tempo is and i think in this class at $7 in betting he represents great each way value.
Big Danger: Gallatin will start as the short priced favourite in the race after winning impressively last start in a good maiden when weaving through the field. He is well bred and looks a type who will improve sharply when he continues to step up in distance. He is a $2.10 shot in betting which could be a bit of unders but he will be hard to beat.
Roughie: Silent Saga impressed me when hitting the line well last start after racing wide throughout. That form was franked today with Runes coming out and winning impressively at Kyneton. He has drawn a wide barrier but he will get back in the run anyways and he drops 1kg from his last start win and i think he could be a good up and coming stay so at $19 in betting he is a horse you must include.
$650 Le Mans Free Bet
Race Eight: Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Snitzerland returned poorly last start although she had mucous issues so i am putting a line through that race. She is by far the classiest horse in the race and she is very well weighted here. She was backed first up in Group 1 company so against these she should be far too good if she is at her best. She is $4 into $3.20 in betting which suggests she will be back at her best or at least close enough to beat his field.
Big Danger: Safeguard has contested some of the best three year old sprint races this preparation and that form has stacked up. He will carry just 55kg in the race which is the lowest he will have on his back this preparation and if Snizterland puts a foot wrong i think he is the horse to take advantage.
Roughie: Rifleman i thought has been good at his previous two runs at Moonee Valley where he has carried weight and hasn’t had much luck in the run. He has a very good record over the distance and i think he can take a bit more of a sit in this race which i think will suit him and at $26 i think he has to be included in your bets in the race.
$650 Snitzerland Free Bet
Race Nine: @flemingtonvrc Vase 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Backstedt was very good when hitting the line strongly last start and he drops 5kg from that run and the increase in distance should suit with a perfect record over the mile winning twice from two tries. He has placed twice from two tries at Flemington so everything suggests he will be hard to beat on Thursday where he is a $5.50 chance in betting.
Big Danger: Lord Durante was luckless at Moonee Valley last start and should have won the race. He has drawn wide here so will need some luck early in the race but if Craig Williams can get him into a good positions throughout the race i think he will be very hard to beat at $9 in betting.
Roughie: Me Hungi flew home late last start in what has shaped to be a good form race and if he comes on from that run and with the Flemington straight i think he is a massive chance in this race at $17 in betting which looks great value. He likes the distance and looks a big winning chance at odds.
$650 Backstedt Free Bet
Best Bet: May’s Dream
Next Best: Snitzerland
Best Roughie: Anise
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