7/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Randwick Guineas day

Group l racing continues at Randwick this Saturday, with the Randwick Guineas (1600m) the drawcard on the nine event program. The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Randwick Guineas 🏆: View the Field for the Randwick Guineas

Canterbury Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Canterbury Stakes

With a wet track in mind, I’ll just lean the way of 3 Fasika (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS). This mare didn’t win a race during the Spring in three runs, but she did run some ripping races, including the Silver Eagle when beaten narrowly by The Inevitable before being far from disgraced in the Golden Eagle. Trials have been good and she’s a mare who loves to get her toe in.

6 Invictus Salute (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a Mark Newnham trained mare who is four weeks between runs since contesting the Bellmaine at Caulfield when off the speed and looked to be going well before peeling wider and loomed. Couldn’t quite finish it off but battled away well in defeat behind an in form Sylvia’s Mother, who won last Saturday to tick that form off. Loves a track with give in it and gets a gun run from the draw.

8 Spiritual Pursuit (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a Jason Coyle trained mare that got some blacktype next to her name courtesy of a placing in the Triscay from three weeks ago at this track/distance when near the speed and battling away pretty well in defeat behind the very impressive winner Sweet Deal, who was outstanding in defeat last Saturday, so that form reads well for this.

3 Global Quest (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks ready to show his best. Two runs back from a spell, while beaten, have been solid. Latest coming in the Silver Slipper two weeks ago where he tried hard but was clearly no match for Farnan. Those in the know say if ever a horse needed Blinkers, it’s this guy, and they are on for this to see if they have the desired effect for the big dance in two weeks.

2 Farnan (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) put his cards on the table for the Slipper with a brilliant win two weeks ago in the Silver Slipper. Was beautifully rated on speed by Bowman and he exploded clear late to win well in decent time, especially his late splits. If he repeats the dose, he’s comfortably the Golden Slipper favourite. Rosehill 1100m and Randwick 1200m are two different tasks.

4 Blaze A Trail (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) could be the forgotten horse here. He was trialling up really well prior to resuming in the Silver Slipper where he was tardy away and that pretty much sealed his fate when down the track behind Farnan. Clark on, expecting this Criterion colt to be ridden positively and off his debut in the Golden Gift, he can measure up here.

Going with 2 Mildred (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). She’s a beauty for Grahame Begg who is just so genuine and busts her get every time she steps out. Far from disgraced down the Flemington straight last time when leading and just feeling the pinch late when third to Ole Kirk. Query at 1200m for sure, but maps to lead comfortably and stable has been on fire in recent weeks.

Fitter and up to 1200m, expecting some sharp improvement from the Team Snowden filly 1 Dame Giselle (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS). This girl was backed as if unbeatable when resuming in the Lonhro Plate and looked to have every chance behind Supreme Idea, but I think the really wet track and just one soft trial leading played against her. Better set up this time around and looks the one to beat. Just doesn’t want it too wet.

Up to 1200m should really suit the Team Freedman filly 8 Ticket To Ride (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS), who has raced over 1000m in both runs this time in, the latest in the Lonhro Plate when sound in defeat despite never really being a winning threat. Think she’s looking for 1200m and breeding would suggest that. Knockout chance for sure.

7 California Zimbol (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is a quality filly for Team Snowden that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since Oaks Day down the Flemington straight when a close up third to Sisstar after lumping 58kg and chasing from a fair way out. Think her trials have been very good, including the one behind Redzel, and we saw what that veteran did in the Lightning.

I think the wet track is a query with 6 Pandemic (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) but he has come back in outstanding order. Comes through the Zeditave from a fortnight back at Caulfield where he produced the best late splits of the entire meeting but just couldn’t quite sustain it to win when fourth to He’ll Haunt Us. Back to 1100m, sits out the back, gets clear air and charges late.

9 Yao Dash (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a big watch here. Quality three year old for the WaterBott team that resumes after what was a very good opening prep during the Spring, which included a strong fourth in the Golden Rose. Been given a good break and has dodged Guineas path to focus on sprinting it seems. Only wet track run, he beat Funstar and Emeralds, as well as Pandemic.

This is a really strong step up in grade/depth for 5 Savatiano (Bet Now: $3.00) but I just can’t ignore the change up speed she produced to win the Millie Fox first up. She was absolutely trucking behind the leaders and really, it was a matter of when J Mac pushed the button. He did, and the mare exploded in putting them away arrogantly. She’ll put herself near the speed, won’t mind a track with some give and is usually better as the prep gets deeper.

7 Standout (Bet Now: $2.60) gets his chance to win a big one here. Quality colt for Gerald Ryan that was so explosive when winning the Expressway first up four weeks ago, sitting just off the speed before presenting wide and he went through his gears beautifully, safely holding his older rivals to win impressively. Form out of that has been franked and he looked outstanding in a recent Rosehill trial.

1 Mister Sea Wolf (Bet Now: $34.00) looks to be flying. Flying to win this? Not sure, but I’m definitely including him because he’s been trialling too well. Hasn’t raced since scoring a fab win in The Gong, beating subsequent Villiers winner Quackerjack. Love horses that go for a spell on a high and he’s been trialling like this could be a career best prep.

Not 100% sold that 5 Deprive (Bet Now: $4.80) is a horse that sits at this level, but he gets a golden chance to beat them because the set up is perfect. He’s a bomb horse when produced fresh and took the step up to Stakes company in the Spring successfully. Loved what I’ve seen from him at the trials, and think he’ll only run well.

2 Nature Strip… (Bet Now: $2.10) similar to Santa Ana Lane. Couldn’t back him with confidence. Not anymore after the Lightning, where he did look a good thing on paper, but he was one of the first beat and really paddled late. Will say that he was near the outside fence and that part of the Flemington straight was off relative to the inside section. We saw in the Spring he got better as the prep got deeper…fascinating to see how he goes.

If you were going off trials, you couldn’t back 1 Santa Ana Lane (Bet Now: $5.50) with confidence. But what we do know is that he’s indeed a race horse and really, he is #1 seed in terms of the best sprinters Australia has to offer. Forget his VRC Classic run behind Nature Strip. He didn’t back up from a gutbusting Everest. Sits off a fast speed here and will launch late.

I think 1 Castelvecchio (Bet Now: $4.40) can finish over the top of these and get another much deserved Group l triumph. His wheels were somewhat spinning when first up in the Hobartville but loved the way he picked up late behind Brandenburg. He’ll eat up the Randwick mile and be strong at the end. Just depends what sort of head start he has to give.

Gee I was let down badly by 3 Microphone (Bet Now: $6.50) last time, but it’s pretty much a similar set up to the Hobartville where he is the one with early toe. This time though, I think he would be much better off with a bunny to chase instead of being left alone with nothing in front like last time. He can roll forward, but if I was riding him, I’d look for three wide cover, around midfield, and launch.

Victoria Derby winner 4 Warning (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to be ticking over beautifully towards the Australian Derby. He too resumed in the Hobartville, clearly the 1400m being short of his best, but he finished off with real purpose late. Where he gets to in the run will be interesting but he’s got the class/quality to finish over the top.

9 Supernova (Bet Now: $6.50) is just too good of a price to ignore. Returns as a gelding for Team Hawkes after a solid Spring prep. Tried to get into the Melbourne Cup last year via the Bart Cummings but found Surprise Baby too good. The trial on paper says it was 900m but Jay Ford kept riding him out about 400-500m past it, so to me, that says there is intent to run well first up.

Looks a good progression for the Chris Waller trained 8 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $1.95). Was well supported when resuming over the mile but the tight track and 1600m brought him undone. Loved the way he found the line when clear and while if you were on, you’d be disappointed, the run still had plenty of merit. Up to 2000m on a bigger track, he’s very likeable.

What to make of 7 Sweet Thomas? (Bet Now: $34.00) He trialled well during the Spring and looked a potential Metropolitan candidate, but he raced like a camel for the most part. Given a break, trialled well again and resumed in the Parramatta Cup where he worked home well late behind Mustajeer into fourth. If he can hold that at least, hopefully improve, he’s in the mix.

Comfortably in the corner of the three year old filly for John Sargent, 13 Emeralds (Bet Now: $4.00). I thought her resumption in the Light Fingers was outstanding. Wide throughout yet still had the hide to keep finding the line for fifth to Flit. If she can sit that little bit closer in the run this time and get cover, I think she’ll take a power of beating.

8 Aliferous (Bet Now: $7.50) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but she’s a quality mare for Kris Lees who resumed over 1400m at Rosehill two weeks ago and thought she was very good late nearer the inside, which wasn’t the A1 ground for the meeting, when second to the second coming of Phar Lap it seemed, Master Of Wine. Back to Mares grade, up to the mile, she’s hard to beat.

4 Another Dollar (Bet Now: $20.00) is worth another look here I feel. Two trials indicated she would need the run when resuming over 1400m at Rosehill a fortnight back and that’s how it panned out behind Master Of Wine. Has a much better second up record…maybe peaking third up for the Epona? Only time will tell.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 13 Emeralds

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 5 Savatiano

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 9 Supernova

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10

Leg Three: 2, 7, 8, 9

Leg Four: 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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