7/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Melbourne Cup day

The race that stops a nation is the Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the 2023 edition highlights a fab ten race card at Flemington on Tuesday. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Blue Stratum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Blue Point colt for Team McEvoy that is on debut and he does look smart. He jumped out a few weeks ago at Terang over 800m when leading throughout and gee he smoked, trucking and he could have won by much, much further, had the rider extended him. He looks a sharp type so that sort of horse seems suited to a race like this. He’ll do me.

1 Admitted (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be respected for James Cummings. He debuted over this trip at 1000m where he produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, winning quite comfortably. He has jumped out well here previously, he gets J Mac and has winning race experience under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

3 Alaa Plenty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Moody/Coleman colt that is a few weeks between runs since having start one at Caulfield in the Debutant when just looking in need of the hitout behind the most impressive 2YO I’ve seen this season, Coleman, so I am respecting that form into this and with the run under the belt, I think he’s in with a shout.

Same Race Multi: Admitted/Alaa Plenty/Blue Stratum all to run Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $5.85)

6 Lord Vladivostok (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has come back in outstanding order for Michael Hickmott and I reckon he’ll take beating here. He comes through the Murray Bridge Cup where he just got too far back in the run but loved the way he found the line late in the piece when third to Jack The Lad, beaten just over a length. Tick over trial was a lovely piece of work and being able to settle closer in the run, up in trip, it all points to him IMO.

4 Forgot You (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in a couple of years but I think he’s racing really well at the moment. He ran in the JRA Cup at The Valley where he just took a bit too long to wind into his work but kept finding the line in a good effort behind the very much in form Ain’tnodeeldun. Back in trip I find interesting but I reckon he’ll love getting to Flemington. Big track, room to move, he’s dangerous.

7 Mr Maestro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. Andrew Forsman trained gelding that resumed in the Moonga at Caulfield where he found 1400m a tad on the short side but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Buffalo River. Track/distance winner from last year and with enormous upside to come, he’ll be around the mark.

Same Race Multi: Pounding – Top 3/Forgot You – Top 3/Mr Maestro – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $5.15)

10 Queen Of Dragons (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat here in a thin race IMO. She comes through the Callander-Presnell at Randwick where she got too far back in the run but didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight and should have finished closer behind Chrysaor. Racing like a rise to 1800m will suit, she is down in the weights and she will be strong at the end. Happy to be in her corner.

2 Aztec State (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning chance. Team Hayes trained three year old that was a strong debut winner at Bendigo over 1500m before going to the mile at Caulfield where he didn’t quite handle the track but balanced up in the straight and was quite good in defeat, close up behind Mojave Desert. Good grounding and I reckon getting to Flemington will be ideal.

4 Natural Deduction (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for John O’Shea. Just a win in a Newcastle maiden last time and I thought the win had enormous merit to it given the ticker he showed in the straight. He was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and get the win. Bred to eat up further, upside to come, good racing style, he’ll be around the mark.

Same Race Multi: Aztec State – Top 3/Queen Of Dragons – Top 3/Natural Deduction – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $7.75)

1 Barber (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat now he’s hard fit. He comes through the Roman Consul at Rosehill where he got back off the speed and kept chasing but seemingly had his chance behind King’s Gambit. albeit was only two lengths from the winner. Third up, so he should just about be at peak fitness and his best is clearly good enough to give this a shake.

4 Jewel Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited back to 1000m IMO. First run for Team Hayes came over 1200m at Cranbourne on Pinker Pinker Night where he got a peach front running steer from Dee and in a driving finish, he was too good. I do think short course racing is his go in life so 1000m suits and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

5 Wiggum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will land on speed and prove hard to get past. He was a sharp winner fresh on Murray Bridge Cup Day before going to Morphettville where he hunted up to lead and gave a strong kick but was nabbed on the peg by Deepfloat Diva. With that racing style, the end of 1000m here is the acid test, but, if he is ridden with a sit, I think he’ll be stronger at the end and more dangerous.

Same Race Multi: Barber – Top 4/Jewel Bay – top 4/Wiggum – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $7.75)

Bludger of a race IMO so will have a throw at the stumps in the shape of 9 The Map (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She is a handy mare from SA who was trying to get her way into the Melbourne Cup via the Geelong Cup but she got back in the run and was never a factor when down the track behind Amade. Prior win was dominant and for mine, she seems a big track horse who loves time to wind up, and I don’t think 2800m will be an issue.

3 Mr Waterville (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rates highly. He comes through the Geelong Cup where I thought he was given every chance by Willow and for a few strides, looked the winner, but couldn’t quite see it through when a close up fourth to Amade. He seems one paced so 2800m here is ideal, he gets Moreira and has won up to 3420m so the trip is no issue. Hard to beat.

11 Wahine Toa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would be dangerous if she got a track with juice in it but on a firm deck, I think she is an outside first four contender. She ran in the Pesto race at Caulfield where she had seemingly every chance behind the speed and just battled late. Hollie Doyle takes over and she is a star rider from the UK so her jumping on, I think the mare will improve because of that.

Same Race Multi: The Map Top 4/Mr Waterville Top 4/Wahine Toa Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $15.00)

Gee I thought they’d miss 9 Platinum Wolf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but despite him being hard in the market, he’s the way I am leaning. He ran last Saturday over 1550m on the Parks track where he was heavily backed and while on face value, he had every chance, the track was playing dynamite up/in, suiting leaders and those near the fence, so forgive him. First up run was super and I reckon he’ll love getting to 1400m at Flemington.

4 Berkshire Breeze (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for Maher/Eustace. His form is at 2400m so 1400m fresh tells me, on face value, that he may need the run, but I have been taken by his jumpout work, and he has shown enough speed in the legs to say he can run well fresh, so watch the market.

1 Love Tap (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won this race last year and he’s back to defend the title. He resumed over two weeks back over 1200m at Randwick where he just needed the run when down the track behind Much Much Better, who led throughout and was dominant. B Shinn jumps on and I reckon with a more positive ride, he can run a much improved race.

Same Race Multi: Love Tap – Top 4/Berkshire Breeze – Top 4/Platinum Wolf – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $8.50)

If you read what some good judges are saying on Twitter, they may as well not run the race and just hand 5 Vauban (Bet Now:  $SP.00) the win. But, I will say it was interesting to hear and read that the horse was a bit flighty when walking onto the track. How will he handle a warm afternoon and 100,000 people, the majority cheering for him to win? Do I think he’s the one to beat? Yes, clearly, but I think in terms of betting, wait until you see how he parades before diving in.

1 Gold Trip (Bet Now: $20.00 SPECIAL OFFER ODDS) is the defending champ and he looks to be flying. His feet issues are seemingly under control and his form this time in has been outstanding. Brave third in the Caulfield Cup before backing up in the Cox Plate and his run was an absolute beauty in defeat. Proven performer and while he loses Zahra, he does get J Mac fresh off a Cox Plate win. Hard to beat, clearly, but I think wait come jump time and you’ll get the max price.

4 Breakup (Bet Now:  $SP.00), IMO, is a big improver from the Caulfield Cup. He was ridden with intent, settling much closer than expected and looked a winning threat on the turn but condition gave way behind Without A Fight. Bigger track, 3200m, improvement to come re condition, fitness…pen a Japanese horse in a Cup at your peril.

Same Race Multi: Vauban – Top 4/Gold Trip – Top 4/Soulcombe – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $14.00)

Trifecta: 5/1-6-13-19-24/1-6-13-19-24

If it’s too good to be true, it usually is, but gee 13 Commemorative (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a near good thing to my eye. Very good filly for James Cummings that took on the Mares first up at Randwick where she did plenty wrong and was wide throughout but kept finding the line in an excellent effort behind Kazou. Back to her own age/sex, maps perfect, J Mac on, enormous upside…good luck beating her.

3 Kimochi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) clearly rates highly for me. She has been freshened up with eyes towards the Thousand Guineas. She hasn’t raced since the Flight Stakes where she had every chance but couldn’t quite get there when second to Tropical Squall. The tick over trial was a lovely piece of work and with good cover from the wide gate, she’ll launch late.

1 Azula (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds for GaiBott. She resumed just over two weeks back in the Thousand Guineas Prelude where she had the suck run in behind but didn’t finish the race off at all in a plain finale behind impressive winner Couer Volante. Better for the run under the belt, her deeds from last prep are good enough to say she can be around the mark.

Same Race Multi: Commemorative – Top 3/Kimochi – Top 3/Batrana – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $17.00)

I think class will get 1 Madame Pommery (Bet Now:  $SP.00) home. Chris Waller trained Group l mare that comes through the Tristarc at Caulfield where she should have won. She just had no luck in the straight when wanting to get clear air and drove hard late to just miss. Drawn out to get decent cover, ideally in the three wide line, and with J Mac sticking, she can finish over the top.

2 Skew Wiff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Group l winner like the topweight and also comes through the Tristarc. She too was nearer the inside and didn’t have the clearest of paths. Wouldn’t have won but should have finished closer, and she was into that off a set back. Much better set up here, she commands respect.

19 Tajneed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. This mare ran in the Ladies Day Vase, her first run since Aug 19, and I thought while she was safely held by Wishlor Lass, I thought she was far from disgraced in defeat. You’d like to think with room for improvement, has that run under the belt, she is one I can be entertained for wider multiples.

Same Race Multi: Madame Pommery Top 4/Skew Wiff Top 4/Tajneed – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $42.00)

Gee 3 Chicago Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a big price here IMO. He ran in the Gawler Cup over 1500m last time where he was an arrogant winner. He got the dream run in transit but still had to take advantage and that he did, making a mess of them late and was dominant. Back to 1400m no issue, he maps ideally, gets M Zahra aboard…for mine, he only runs well and is a great each way gamble in the get out.

16 Chorlton Lane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong since arriving in Australia from the UK. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Sep 23 when just off the speed and had every chance but battled away well in defeat behind Vienna Princess, who franked the form in the Silver Eagle. Fresh legs into this I find interesting but in terms of upside/progression, he’s just about #1 seed.

14 Robusto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1400m for Chris Waller. Just one soft trial leading into his return a few weeks back at Randwick over 1200m where he got back in an on speed dominated affair and while he was never a threat, I really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Much Much Better. Decent set up this time around and dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

Same Race Multi: Chicago Storm – Top 4/Chorlton Lane – Top 4/Inver Park – Top 4 @ (Bet Now: $19.00)

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 13 Commemorative

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 5 Vauban

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 3 Chicago Storm

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 13

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 19

Leg Four: 3, 14, 15, 16, 17

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