The Melbourne Cup Carnival continues this Thursday at Flemington where it is Oaks Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Oaks Field 🏆: View the Field for the VRC Oaks
Race 1. (13:50) Twitter Trophy (90) 1800m
8 Impi (Bet Now: $1.50 TOP ODDS) looks one of the hardest to beat. Progressive gelding for Pat Carey that ran in a heat of the Country Series on Geelong Cup and looked to travel really well on speed but couldn’t go with Harbour Views late and had to settle for a close up third. Up in trip looks a big positive for this guy, he gets near the speed and has change up speed when needed.
6 Main Stage (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is the one at silly odds. He comes through the Harbour Views race mentioned above and wasn’t beaten far at all in a pretty good effort I thought behind the boom country horse, but was only 1.7L off Impi in that race yet that horse likely starts odds on while Main Stage is near $20. Just seems crazy odds and with the Blinkers back on, he’ll run a beauty I reckon.
Giving 10 Midas Prince (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) respect in the opener. Aaron Purcell has this bloke going really well at the moment. Finished off strong to win two back at Ballarat before racing on Geelong Cup Day over 1700m when leading throughout under Yendall and what I liked is that he was headed, but came again and on the line was strongest. 1800m no issue, and I hope Yendall is positive from the gate.
Race 2. (14:20) Maribyrnong Plate 1000m
8 Hard Landing (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a beautifully bred colt on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Being by All Too Hard out of Group l winning mare Snitzerland, he’s bred to be a good one and looks to have talent if his jumpout win here recently was any guide. Crabbed around the turn but once balanced up, gee he moved well. Draws out, so gets clear air and trained here, so assuming he’s had a look or two down the straight.
11 Arctic Ice (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a Brazen Beau filly for the Ellerton/Zahra stable that was relatively unwanted in betting when debuting in the Inglis Banner but she was a real eye catcher I thought, finishing off strongly to run third to Ideas Man, beaten around a half length. She has race experience on her side and is trained on the track, so you’d assume she’s had a look or two down the Flemington straight.
6 Coup De Tonnerre (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a Matt Cumani trained colt on debut. Wasn’t asked for an effort in a Cranbourne trial in early October before having a Ballarat jumpout where he led throughout and gave them a spanking in reasonable time. Pushed out, but did respond well, which I do like to see from an unraced juvenile, so keen to see how he goes here.
Race 3. (14:55) Off The Track Subzero Handicap (90) 1400m
7 Sir Simon (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) on top for me. Scott Brunton trains this gelding, who has put together a really good record in Tassie. Lumped 61kg to win first up at Launceston over 1400m, leading throughout and running good time in doing so. Gets right down in the weights with the class/depth rise, but has the right racing pattern, won’t mind a track with give in it and stable have great success when coming to Victoria.
This is one of the easier races that 1 Platinum Angel (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) has contested in some time, so keen to see how she goes. She comes through the Northwood Plume at Caulfield when tucked in behind the speed and looked to be going well but had no luck in the straight and pretty went around like it was a barrier trial. Up to 1400m I like and Tofane franked that Northwood Plume form on Saturday.
3 Something Silver (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while but is racing well for Clinton McDonald. She ran over 1500m at Moonee Valley on Manikato night where she had no chance after knuckling when the gates opened but she wasn’t too bad in defeat behind impressive winner Cuba. Draws to get a soft run just off the speed and I like Jamie Kah going on.
Race 4. (15:30) Bumble Trophy Race (70) 1700m
I think 16 Affair To Remember (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is one of the better bets on the card. Resumed with a strong maiden win at Geelong, a race which has produced five winners. Then went to the Jim Moloney at Caulfield and worked home well before getting cut out of a run late in an eye catching effort. Been freshened up and her recent Ballarat jumpout was very good I thought. Keen on her.
Back in trip is the knock with 11 Loveseat (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) but concede she’s going well. She comes through a 2200m midweek contest at Warwick Farm when off the pace and trying hard but couldn’t reel in Breakdance, who was given a 12/10 steer on speed by Avdulla and was too good. Back to 1700m is the knock but back to mares grade certainly helps. Hard fit and in form too.
Can do worse than having something each way on 17 Imperial Dawn (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). Hasn’t raced since October 2 at Ballarat when savaging the line late from the back to get up and score a big win. Been kept on ice, waiting for a dry track, so hopefully the weather gods are kind for her, and her jumpout here last week was outstanding. She looks the one at silly odds.
Race 5. (16:05) GH Mumm Century Stakes 1000m
The more I look at this race, the more I think 6 Badajoz (Bet Now: $17.00) will run a big race at odds. He comes through the Caulfield Sprint won by Miss Leonidas, who got it soft in front and powered clear to win, but Badajoz stuck on and closed off with purpose in a good effort. Has run well down the straight before and if this rain does come, that makes him more of a serious contender.
1 Ball Of Muscle (Bet Now: $2.90) is an absolute beauty for Joe Pride. He tried to get his way into the Everest by winning the Schillaci at Caulfield and gave a really good kick on speed but couldn’t hold out Trekking, who of course franked that form when running third in the Everest. Proven down the straight, lands somewhere near the front of the pack and will give his all.
10 Fine Dane (Bet Now: $17.00) is a mare racing in really good form at the moment for John Moloney. Admittedly the tempo wasn’t too hot when racing over 955m on Cox Plate Day but she took advantage of it and was dominant in beating the well fancied Esperance. Another that has run well down the straight previously, down in the weights and should be out of trouble near the front.
Race 6. (16:40) Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (80) 1600m
1 Harbour Views (Bet Now: $2.50) will have to be regarded as a very good horse if he can win this. He probably is after his win on Geelong Cup Day given he was wide no cover for the trip yet ambled to Impi, took the front and kicked on strongly to beat O’Tauto. 61.5kg is a fair impost for a Benchmark 80 and there is good depth to this field. But he might just be a potential Stakes class horse.
4 O’Tauto (Bet Now: $4.80) can turn the tables on Harbour Views. They clashed on Geelong Cup Day and while Harbour Views won and was super after sitting wide no cover for the trip, I really liked the finale of O’Tauto, who found the line with real purpose late in the piece. Has run well at Flemington before, has more upside and does get a 1.5 weight swing on Harbour Views.
8 Diplomac Jack (Bet Now: $34.00) is a Thomas Carberry trained gelding who has done really well this time in. He got his way into this race off the back of a tough win over the mile at Hamilton last start when given a 12/10 steer by Jamie Mott and he lifted the horse over the line to get the photo. I reckon 1600m sees him right out, but has fresh legs. Just doesn’t want the track too wet.
Race 7. (17:15) TCL TV Stakes 1800m
1800m on his home track, I’m really keen to see 10 Russian Camelot (Bet Now: $2.50) for the Danny O’Brien stable. This colt debuted over 1400m at Ballarat where he was back near last in the run before Olly eased him wider and when he balanced up, gee he savaged the line like a really good horse. Ran two lengths quicker than the other 1400m maiden and was three lengths quicker than the 58. He’s an exciting prospect and confident he measures up.
3 Pancho (Bet Now: $3.30) is heading in the right direction for Chris Waller. He comes through the Bondi Stakes at Randwick where he was back off the speed and presented to win the race but Kubrick got the split and the class of that horse was the difference. The run prior saw him win at Warwick Farm and beat a subsequent winner in Romani Girl. Hard to beat here.
It was some win from 7 Highland Jakk (Bet Now: $7.50) last Thursday at Seymour. Olly looked in awful trouble on the turn but he found the right path, shoved into clear air and away he went for a very dominant maiden win. He didn’t beat much, but it was the manner in which he put them away that impressed. Craig Williams jumps on and the Blinkers go on to sharpen him up.
Race 8. (17:50) Kennedy Oaks 2500m
Gee I’m keen on 2 Moonlight Maid (Bet Now: $4.20). She looks to have had the perfect prep for the Oaks, winning the Edward Manifold in impressive fashion two back here before going to the Vase at the Valley when a game second to impressive winner Soul Patch, who ran so well in the Derby on Saturday. Flemington 2500m looks perfect for her and give in the ground no issue.
From the Wakeful, 1 Miami Bound (Bet Now: $3.50) does look the one to beat. She was ridden positively by Olly and though challenged in the straight by Vegas Jewel, she was holding that filly on the line, so from that race, I think she’s the one to be on, and 2500m should be fine for her. The Wakeful has been the A1 form reference for the Oaks in recent years, so she’s a clear threat.
Don’t drop off 5 Foxborough (Bet Now: $34.00). The sloppy conditions on Saturday made it very difficult for those from the back to get involved into the race and Foxborough was pretty much ridden like she was in a barrier trial, but in terms of the backmarkers, her late splits weren’t too bad. Been set for this race all Spring and stable has a great record in this race.
Race 9. (18:25) Red Roses Stakes 1100m
Big fan of 2 California Zimbol (Bet Now: $2.00) and confident she can continue her winning ways. Impressive first up win at the midweeks at Canterbury before going to the Thoroughbred Club at Caulfield two weeks ago where she jumped well to lead and controlled things beautifully, and from the home turn, she was never going to get beat. She can keep on her winning ways.
12 Sisstar (Bet Now: $16.00) is a speed demon for the McEvoy camp and she’ll look the winner for a long way I reckon. Gave them a spanking first up at Murray Bridge before racing down the straight here when given a lovely ride on speed from Poy and was too sharp for her rivals. Been kept on ice for this and her recent trial win was outstanding. She has sustained speed and that will carry her a long way.
4 Absolute Flirt (Bet Now: $8.00) can bounce back here. She hasn’t raced since the Scarborough on Moir Night at the Valley when back in the run and never really in the hunt behind Loving Gaby, who of course ticked that form off in the Manikato. Absolute Flirt looks to save her best for the Flemington straight course and a repeat of her effort two back would see her be around the mark here.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 16 Affair To Remember
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 10 Russian Camelot
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 6 Badajoz
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4
Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg Four: 2, 4, 10, 12, 14
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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