7/1/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Sunday, transferred from Saturday due to the forecast for extreme heat. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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5 Addison (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare who was solid fresh behind Hard Empire before racing here on Boxing Day where she sprouted wings out wide and lunged hard to nab them right on the peg. Can only see upside with her and the way she charged to the line, the extra trip certainly no negative.

10 So Splendid (Bet Now: $4.80) comes through the Addison race here on Boxing Day and to my eye, I think she probably wins with a better barrier. Just had to do a bit too much work up the hill and that extra energy was gone when required the final few strides. If she can get a more economical run, she can go close.

6 Bonus D’Oro (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Darren Weir trained mare who is going well at the moment but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Thought that win would come last time out at the Valley but she took an eternity to get going and was only warming up late behind Royal Applause. Think the 1800m and bigger track helps her cause and is a definite winning chance.

4 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $6.00) is a bludger, but so are a majority of these, and he seems to be hitting the line with purpose this prep so I’ll lean his way. He ran over 1500m at Bendigo last time out and was strong late when third to Burrum’s Buzz, who franked the form by winning at Morphettville last Saturday. Up to 2000m a big tick, has upside and class.

5 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $4.20) is a five year old trained by Darren Weir who is nearing a win and I think he gets a chance here. He ran over the 1800m here on Boxing Day where he tried hard under John Allen but just found Netherfield too classy and brilliant when it mattered. Up to 2000m will really suit I feel and he should be hard fit now.

9 Fontein Lad (Bet Now: $4.20) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but he is definitely up to these. He hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing over the 2000m at Pakenham where he sat near the speed and tried hard when fourth to O’Lonera. Not sure how strong that form is, but I like this horse on the fresh and on firmer footing.

5 Lucky Cat (Bet Now: $5.00) is a filly trained by Darren Weir who comes straight to town off the back of a very sharp debut win at Bendigo where she sprouted wings late under Damian Lane to get the win, beating home Cinq Dames, who franked the form by winning at Mornington on New Years Day. Race rated highly too so she can naturally improve and run well here.

4 Teleplay (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Written Tycoon filly for Mick Price who was a strong debut winner at Kilmore before going to the Valley where she looked a bit outclassed compared to some above average types but she measured up and was good in defeat when third to Bel Sonic in the Gold Carat. That form does read well for this.

All you can do is win and that is what 1 Lady Magnus (Bet Now: $10.00) has done. Two for two to kick off her career, the latest coming against the mares at Werribee when letting down with a strong finish out wide to overhaul them for a really good win. This is a really good test, but off what I’ve seen, I have to include her.

13 Keen (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Busuttin/Young trained galloper who was hard in the market when debuting under the lights at Cranbourne and despite being niggled at a fair way from home, gee he lengthened nicely when Baster asked for the effort and he drew right away for a dominant win. Good lead that they are sending him straight to town.

2 Eclair Calling (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding who has come back in fab order. Has won two for two, both at Gawler. Resumed with a sharp maiden win over 1100m before stepping up to 1500m and he was dominant under Todd Pannell. Can only see upside with him so he rates highly for sure.

4 Gee Whizzer (Bet Now: $16.00) is a horse who is going really well this time in for the John Price team. He ran on the bog last start at Cranbourne, a surface which really isn’t his go, but he stuck to the task really well in defeat when third to Ceylon. Stepping a bit in depth here, but he’s racing in good form and can add some value to exotics.

7 Invisible Girl (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Lloyd Kennewell trained mare who is racing so well at the moment. She ran over 1000m on the Parks track last time out where she sat off a hot speed and tried hard but Itz Invincible was trucking and was too dominant on the line. Like her up to 1100m and she’ll be strong late with clear air.

1 Tykiato (Bet Now: $5.00) started bolters odds when racing at this track/distance three weeks back but you could make a case that she should have won, but copped interference from a domino effect caused by runners inside her and that altered her momentum. Still picked herself up and just missed. Gets Olly on now. Just has to overcome the weight.

5 Mamzelle Tess (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quality mare for the Corstens team who had jumped out well prior to resuming at this track/distance where she did a bit of work on speed and fought hard but just ran out of puff late when third to Creativity. The form around her does read very well and she should be stronger at the end now she’s had the run under the belt.

2 Widgee Turf (Bet Now: $1.80) is a Patrick Payne trained gelding who has returned in fab order. Resumed with a strong win in the mud at Sandown before going to the Valley where he was expected to win and ran up to that with a dominant display. Just starting to creep up in the weights now but can’t go away from him and what he’s done.

5 Royal Ace (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing really well at the moment for Darren Weir. Won well on the Ballarat bog two back before racing behind Widgee Turf at the Valley where he tried hard and battled away strongly but was clearly no match for the in form Patrick Payne runner. Think the bigger track will suit him and he can bounce back for sure.

4 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Michael Trotter trained galloper who had jumped out well prior to resuming at the Valley where I thought he got a definite pass mark in defeat behind Widgee Turf, with condition just giving way late. That run should bring him on and he does have a reasonable record at Caulfield.

3 Epic Moment (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Mick Price trained four year old who has returned in in really good style. Resumed with an eye catching second at Mornington behind Toy Boy before racing there again and Mick Dee rode a beauty on the horse, riding to the pattern of the day and leading throughout to spank them. Confident he can measure up.

4 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $4.00) has an awful winning strike rate but he is absolutely flying for Tony Noonan. Resumed at Sandown when second to Club Tropicana before contesting an open handicap at Caulfield where he savaged the line from the back behind the high class Crystal Dreamer. Surely that’s the right form to be winning this.

8 Game Of War (Bet Now: $26.00) is the very interesting runner. Lloyd Kennewell trained gelding that is first up here after a pretty solid Winter prep, where it ended with a second to the above average mare Jamaican Rain. Resumes with no trials, but does have a good fresh record and I think you have to respect the fact that the stable are sending him to Melbourne for his resumption.

Pretty keen to play on 16 The Avenger (Bet Now: $7.00). Really like the state switch by Waller. His form in Sydney this prep just reads so well. He was a flop first up behind Kawaikini at Canterbury before racing at Rosehill where he was very game in defeat behind King Darci in a slowly run affair, and that form was franked a fortnight back. Confident he wins.

7 Valderrama (Bet Now: $21.00) is a talented galloper for Brett Scott who has been quite good in two runs back from a break. Resumed with a seventh to Toy Boy at Mornington before going to the Valley where he closed off well from the back behind Atlantic City in an eye catching effort. 1400m on the big track looks ideal and he has upside.

12 I’m Ablaze (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Wendy Kelly trained galloper who has had the one run back from a spell, which came in that Toy Boy race at Mornington mentioned above where he sat off the speed and stuck on okay. Good lead that Williams sticks and he has had good success with the stable in recent times.

8 Leodoro (Bet Now: $9.50) on top. Mick Kent has this sprinter going really well to my eye. Resumed with a closing third to Nasdex at Pakenham before going to Moonee Valley where he made up a stack of ground from the back when fourth to Murphy’s Reward. Won his lone start here last prep and the speed engaged here will really suit him.

12 Handsome Thief (Bet Now: $4.40) is a very talented galloper that resumes for the Darren Weir camp. Lightly raced five year old, with just seven career outings next to his name, the latest coming back in September on the Parks track where he looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly under Ben Allen. He is a first up winner and I’m sure he’s had a jump out or two to prepare.

4 Murphy’s Reward (Bet Now: $16.00) looks the big overs here. Completely unwanted in betting when resuming over the 1000m at the Valley but credit to him, he led all the way and toughed it out strongly under Bayliss to hold off Wise Hero, who won impressively at Flemington on New Years Day. Can perform second up and drawing out ain’t such a bad thing, with Bayliss having the option of taking his time to come over.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Widgee Turf

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 16 The Avenger

VALUE: Race Nine Number 8 Leodoro

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 3, 4, 8, 11, 13

Leg Three: 7, 10, 11, 16

Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 12

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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