Group l racing returns to Morphettville with a double header, the Schweppes Oaks (2010m) and the UBET Classic (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1800m-1200m; True from the 1200m-2000m.
Race One (12:39) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Model Dragon (Bet Now: $3.55) is a talented mare for the Stokes yard who rises to the mile after racing over 1200m last time out here where she just got too far back in the run and that cost her the win when second to Beautiful Flyer. Has won up to 1550m, so the distance won’t be an issue. The negative is that she is 1200m to 1600m.
Big Danger: 2 Royal Rumble (Bet Now: $2.80) is the hard fit/in form galloper for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. Ran over 1800m here a fortnight back where he pulled his head off in the run and looked to cost himself the win but he fought on very strongly to score a narrow but tough win. Back to the mile suits and he should take some beating.
Long Shot: 3 Excites Zelady (Bet Now: $9.00) attempted to lead all the way over 1800m here last time out and just copped too much pressure on speed but battled away pretty well when fourth to Royal Rumble. 1800m sees him out, so back to the mile is perfect and perhaps with cover, he can be more effective.
Race Two (13:14) : Carbine Club Handicap 2010m:
Back Me: 2 Second Bullet (Bet Now: $2.80) will love the step back to 2000m here. He was six weeks between runs when racing in the Easter Cup at Caulfield where he worked home with purpose but had to settle for a close up second to in form galloper Observational. Got a really good record overall and this is a thin race, so he should taking care of them.
Big Danger: 8 Lamborghini (Bet Now: $5.00)came over here as a companion for Savvy Dreams, but he may do a better job than the well performed stablemate. He ran a beauty over 1800m here a fortnight back and went very close to knocking off the low flying Royal Rumble. Up to 2000m is a big tick, fitter and strikes a very winnable race.
Long Shot: 1 Jim’s Journey (Bet Now: $7.00) is a well performed local who is on the quick back up after racing over 2400m on the Parks track where he had a pretty good run near the speed and tried hard but just no match for the well performed pair of Goldstream and Time To Test. Bit more depth here I think, but he is hard fit and I think back in trip will help.
Race Three (13:54) : “House Rules” Queen Adelaide Stakes 1050m:
Back Me: 1 Tabbing (Bet Now: $6.50) is a tough youngster for the John O’Connor yard who is never far away from the action. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he sat on speed and was headed early on in the straight but he fought back hard to get the win narrowly but impressively. Looks the leader again and loves a fight.
Big Danger: 4 Luqyaa (Bet Now: $6.00) sat on speed and toughed it out strongly to win two back at the Valley before going to the Dequetteville at Morphettville where she had a charmed run behind the speed and looked all over a winner, only to be bloused late by Split Lip. That looks the right form for this, so happy to include her.
Long Shot: 3 Explicitly (Bet Now: $12.00) is a well bred colt for Robbie Laing who resumes here. He hasn’t raced since very early on in the season in the Maribyrnong Trial where he ran down the track behind the nippy Madeenaty. Two trials for this prep have been quite impressive and hopping the border first up tells me this horse is highly rated by the stable.
Race Four (14:34) : DC McKay Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 11 Counter Pulse (Bet Now: $16.00) is a gelding that is absolutely low flying at the moment for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. Won three on the bounce in very impressive fashion before the apprentice went on last time out and she rode the gelding well but just no match for Broadway And Velvet. Back to 1100m and senior rider back on are big ticks, he’ll be on speed and he is tough.
Big Danger: 5 Casino Wizard (Bet Now: $8.00) comes through the Irwin a fortnight back and he did a pretty good in defeat behind Viddora after settling near the speed, which probably isn’t his go. He is much better when ridden cold and having the last say. If that eventuates here, he’ll go close for sure and is a knockout chance.
Long Shot: 2 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $10.00) is the best horse in the race but he can never quite put it together. He was popular in the market last time out in the Bel Esprit at Caulfield but he just got too far back in the run and was held up at various stages in the straight. This is D-Day for him IMHO. If he can’t go close to winning this, he won’t be winning another Stakes race.
Race Five (15:14) : Hughes Limousines Queen Of The South Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 10 Have Another Glass (Bet Now: $9.00) is a mare I’ve touted as a future Stakes winner for some time and she gets her first chance here. Resumed at Oakbank in a race that did look tricky for her on paper but in the end, it turned out to be an absolute procession as she spanked her rivals with plenty in reserve. She’s quite exciting and I am confident she can measure up.
Big Danger: 11 Lopartega (Bet Now: $8.00) is a mare in form and on the up for the Doug Harrison stable. Ran over the mile at Sandown on Easter Monday and gave them a nice spanking, aided by a lovely steer just off the pace by Craig Williams. Her two efforts this prep have been very good and the mile does seem her pet trip. Keen to see what she does here.
Long Shot: 13 Jennio (Bet Now: $41.00) is proving costly to follow this prep but I am giving her one more chance here. Closed off hard two back at Ballarat behind Elite Tiger before going to Sandown last Wednesday where she sat off the speed and couldn’t come on behind Alamonteel, but I think she is a mare who isn’t effective on wet tracks. Firmer footing will be the key to her here, and this looks a winnable race.
Race Six (15:54) : Schweppes Oaks 2010m:
Back Me: 5 Egg Tart (Bet Now: $4.20) looks the best bet on the card. Chris Waller trained filly that I’ve been wrapping as a QLD Oaks horse. Could still win that, but before that, she’ll be winning this. Her efforts this time in have been outstanding. Loved her Flemington win on Anzac Day where she had to chase and when she did and hit the front, she dashed again. She has the makings of a top class mare, and could develop into a Caulfield Cup contender. Very keen.
Big Danger: 2 Kenedna (Bet Now: $3.20) is the hardest to beat in terms of the local form and the lead ups. Has been ridden an absolute treat by Johnny Allen at her past couple, the latest in the Auraria where he somehow found the rail from the outside gate, then picked his way through the field before getting the split and dashing clear. Draws a soft gate, so I suspect she will get a similar run, and is a live threat.
Long Shot: 4 Smart As You Think (Bet Now: $18.00) is the knockout hope. Had Egg Tart not been in the race, I’d have this girl on top because she was my early SA Oaks tip earlier in the Autumn. Really liked her closing effort in the Auraria after getting a mile back in the run. 2000m looks perfect and last time she was at the trip, she was unlucky in the Vinery Stud.
Race Seven (16:34) : UBET Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Viddora (Bet Now: $13.00) looks sensational value to my eye at double figures. High quality mare for the Lloyd Kennewell yard who was given a peach of a ride by Chris Parnham last time out in the Irwin and once she got the run, it was game over, beating home a serious Goodwood contender in Ilustrious Lad. That reads pretty well for this, she draws well again and regular rider Bowditch is back on.
Big Danger: 2 Sheidel (Bet Now: $5.75) is the class of the field and does get Moreira back steering. This mare contested the major Group l sprints during the Melbourne Autumn, highlighted by a brilliant all the way win in the Oakleigh Plate. Last two wins for this mare she has been steered by Moreira, so perhaps the Magic Man can weave his wand again.
Long Shot: 8 Now Or Later (Bet Now: $15.00) is the big watch here. Qatar Bloodstock mare that makes her Australian debut for the Robert Smerdon yard. High class mare from Ireland who contested some top shelf races over there, and ran fourth in the Coronation at Royal Ascot. Trials/jump outs have been encouraging and Williams rides. Market watch for sure.
Race Eight (17:14) : UBET Euclase Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Defcon (Bet Now: $5.50) trialled up well prior to resuming in the Arrowfield Sprint where he sat out the back before Shinn eased him wider and he cruised up as if he was going to win but his condition just gave out late. The weather will be the key. If the track dries out, he is close to a good thing. If it remains soft, he is a Big Danger.
Big Danger: 2 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $4.60) did a mighty job in defeat last time out in the VOBIS Gold Sprint given he was three and four wide no cover for the trip yet hit the front and kicked hard but no match late for the low flying Rich Charm. Draws much better here and Yendall is back on. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 8 El Sicario (Bet Now: $41.00) is a quality galloper for the Busuttin/Young team but he can do plenty wrong, as we saw last time out at Caulfield where he bungled the start and got back to near last in the run, and at the 1100m start at Caulfield, that’s a no no. The talent is there. He just needs to jump cleanly. If he does, he’s a threat.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Egg Tart
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Leg Two: 2, 4, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 2
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