Canberras biggest raceday comes around on Sunday with a stack of feature races, headed by the $275,000 Group lll Mercedes-Benz Canberra Black Opal Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:27) : Sky Racing Maiden Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Hemispheres (Best Odds: $2.30) looks the clear way to go here. This Godolphin galloper ran last time out at Beaumont-Newcastle where he tried to lead all the way but had to settle for second to Gendebien. Bit of a drop in depth here and with normal luck, he should be winning.
Big Danger: 7 Trick Star (Best Odds: $1.90) is a Peter Robl trained galloper that comes through a maiden at Scone a fortnight back where he had the charmed run behind the tempo and tried hard but had to settle for second. Stable is having a really good run at the moment and this horse should be at peak fitness.
Roughie: 8 Duporche (Best Odds: $12.00) has been around the mark in her last five starts and is showing she will break through soon. This looks a relatively tough task but i think she can find herself in the placings again and with some luck could cause an upset.
Race Two (14:05) : Canprint Communications Handicap (65) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Sterno (Best Odds: $8.00) was backed as if unbeatable when racing at Beaumont-Newcastle last time out and just got too far back when running seventh to Zestful. Should improve off that, Avdulla sticks and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Hermosa Beach (Best Odds: $2.30) comes through a Country Championship qualifier at Goulburn where she didn’t appear happy at all on the shifty surface when running sixth to impressive winner Lofty’s Menu. Home track now, Bowman aboard, in form…ticks the boxes.
Roughie: 10 Cries Of Joy (Best Odds: $6.50) is a stablemate of Hermosa Beach who ran over 1200m here last time out and worked home hard late when second to Law Of The Land, beaten narrowly. Berry jumps on and he rides Matty Dale horses very well.
Race Three (14:42) : Barlens Camarena Quality Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Beau Tirage (Best Odds: $2.30) was well backed when resuming in a Highway race at Rosehill but just copped too much pressure on speed when fourth to Rose Of Man. Back on his home track now so he should take some beating provided he doesn’t cop too much pressure.
Big Danger: 2 Mr Manhattan (Best Odds: $2.70) resumes for Joe Pride after a three run prep in the Spring which ended with a plain third to Bullpit at Canterbury, who has since run well at Melbourne subsequently. Recent Warwick Farm trial was encouraging and looks very well placed here.
Roughie: 9 Princess Command (Best Odds: $14.00) has been freshened up since running in a 55 Second race at the Valley when a luckless fourth. She will get back once again, but if the speed is on, she will be charging home better than most.
Race Four (15:16) : Affinity Constructions Australia P/L National Sprint 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Spy Decoder (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed at Rosehill a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly but the eventual winner, Religify, had a picnic in front and kicked on strongly. Should improve off that fitness wise and Macca sticks.
Big Danger: 7 Lunar Rise (Best Odds: $8.00) has been freshened up since winning on Australia Day over 1400m at Randwick when sitting on speed and kicking on strongly. Recent trial there was very good and now he has that winning feeling, he can go right on with it.
Roughie: 2 Forget (Best Odds: $9.00) will appreciate the drop in grade after contesting Group races to kick off his prep, the latest in the Southern Cross (1200m) at Randwick behind Big Money. Draws a good gate, Avdulla rides and should be ready fitness wise.
Race Five (15:52) : XXXX Gold Canberra Guineas 1400m:
Back Me: 12 Way Too Good (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed at Canterbury a tick under three weeks back and worked home strongly against the tempo when second to Prime Target. Draws very well here, has enormous upside and Tommy is back on.
Big Danger: 3 Bolero King (Best Odds: $5.00) has really found his best form in recent times, wining two on the bounce, both at Hawkesbury. Harder here, but Bowman is aboard, draws well and the horse is in ripping form.
Roughie: 13 Ocean Tempest (Best Odds: $11.00) is a stablemate of Way Too Good who also resumed at Canterbury and was completely luckless when never clear of a pocket. Has since won a trial at Randwick. I’m sure she will measure up. The wide gate is the big negative.
Race Six (16:35) : Tab.com.au Canberra Cup 2000m:
Back Me: 2 Arab Dawn (Best Odds: $2.40) was just having his second start when contesting the Parramatta Cup (1900m) where he was given a lovely ride by Christian Reith to win impressively. Has enormous upside and stable rider is back on.
Big Danger: This just looks a lovely race for 1 Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $3.40). He was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade last weekend in the Chipping Norton (1600m) behind Winx, making up ground out wide. Shinn back on now, and given his recent form and overall record, he is so well placed. Surprised he is not the top pick in betting.
Roughie: 7 Award Season (Best Odds: $10.00) comes back after a hit and run mission at Doomben which didn’t go to plan at all when finishing sixth to Hot Saga where he didn’t really appreciate give in the track it seemed. Bit harder here, but interesting to note he was scratched from an easier race last Saturday to be saved for this harder assignment.
Race Seven (17:13) : Mercedes-Benz Black Opal Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Going with 2 Defcon (Best Odds: $1.65). He has his worries at running 1200m, but his second placing behind Astern in the Silver Slipper (1100m) was full of merit. Big drop in grade here and despite the wide gate, he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 3 Prized Icon (Best Odds: $5.00) resumed in the Lonhro Plate at Randwick and tried hard when second to Telperion, who did get beat last Saturday but didn’t have much luck, so the form is inconclusive. He has upside and is in the right stable.
Roughie: 1 Dieters (Best Odds: $5.50) is the interesting runner here. Unbeaten Queenslander for Jason McLachlan who hasn’t raced since winning at Doomben a tick under three months back and while the form is suspect, he has been impressive. Still, he has to be respected.
Race Eight (17:50) : Premier Racing Partnerships Handicap (65) 1200m:
Back Me: Lock The Doors (Best Odds: $21.00) i feel is way over the odds in this race he has been good this preparation without being able to score a win. This looks a little easier than those runs and at the big odds i think he is a very good price and can be backed each way with confidence.
Big Danger: 5 Tiger By The Tail (Best Odds: $3.80) was well backed last time out in a similar quality race and got the job done. He comes into this with similar conditions and will again be tough to beat.
Roughie: 1 No Luck Needed (Best Odds: $51.00) despite what his name says he will need some luck to win here but i definitely think he has the ability to win this race so the massive odds on offer look overs.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Arab Dawn
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Defcon
VALUE: Race Eight Number 3 Lock The Doors
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 13
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5
$50 Investment= 29.76% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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