6/12/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bet – Sandown, Doveton Stakes day

A strong nine race card has been set down for Sportingbet Park Sandown-Hillside this Saturday, highlighted by the $120,000 Listed Doveton Stakes (1000m), where we see the return of Lord Of The Sky, who burned many punters wallets in the Winter. He resumes without a trial, and will be asked to carry topweight of 60kg.The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit. Generally when the rail is out a significant margin, leaders are advantaged, so keep that in mind when betting here.

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Race One (12:55pm) : Booralite Park Handicap 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Looks an ideal race for Zabisco (Best Odds: $2.80) who is coming off a last start blacktype win over 1800m here in the Eclipse Stakes where he sat off the speed, was smothered away until about the 250m, then burst into the clear and savaged the line late to nail Pheidon, who will go around later in the night as a leading contender in the Group l Kingston Town at Ascot, so that form reads well for this and he only has to go up 3kg. Should prove too classy for this lot.
Big Danger: Backstedt (Best Odds: $3.60) looks the serious threat here. He attempted to lead all the way two weeks back at Ballarat and just copped a bit too much pressure and was left a sitting shot for something to blouse him, and it was Zuma Roc, who got up near the inside. He is at his best when he dominates races from the front, and given there isn’t too much speed on paper here, that could eventuate.
Roughie: I was quite keen on Fulgur (Best Odds: $8.50) in that Zuma Roc race after a very impressive jump out at Flemington, but he didn’t really dash/ping when asked by James Winks. Perhaps the 58kg and being fresh probably got him, plus it was difficult to come wide and make ground on the day. Expecting a much better performance here.

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Race Two (1:30pm) : Steve Wilby Transport Handicap (70) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Tender (Best Odds: $15.00) comes back to her right level IMo after contesting some pretty strong races during the Carnival. Two back she ran sixth to Sea Spray on Caulfield Cup Day then filled that same position on Cox Plate Day behind Lumosty. Hasn’t trialled or jumped out since then, so it’s hard to know where she is at, but she has the class factor and does race well fresh.
Big Danger: Boundary (Best Odds: $4.00) was an impressive debut maiden winner at Geelong before stepping up to the 3YO Magic Millions at Ballarat where he came from near last to run second to impressive debut winner Murt The Flirt. That was a big effort from the back because it did appear as though it was hard to make up significant ground and he was one of only a handful. Up to 1400m looks ideal and strikes a winnable race.
Roughie: Shufetish (Best Odds: $11.00) tested the patience of punters for a little while but she got the win on the board last time out at Kyneton against an average lot, but she did put them away impressively and won with authority. This is a really even race, so I don’t think she has to improve much to be a force here, and she will be out of trouble on the speed.

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Race Three (2:05pm) : Dunlite Handicap (78) 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Ms Mazetti (Best Odds: $4.20) looks beautifully placed against these. She trialled really well at Cranbourne prior to her first up run on Cup Day at Flemington when making up good ground late to run sixth to Risen From Doubt after settling near last. She has since been to the jump outs and looked very impressive there in winning last week. It’s going to take a smart one to beat here IMO.
Big Danger: Rough Justice (Best Odds: $4.80) surprised many with his win at Caulfield during the Spring but he proved that was no fluke with second placings at Flemington on Cup Day and then was close up at the Valley to Release The Speed. He should get every chance from the good draw here and does have a touch of class on his side, perhaps not as much as the top tip.
Roughie: If Boomwaa (Best Odds: $6.00) brought his best form here, he’d be a serious chance. He has proven in the past that he can mix it with some of the best youngsters in the business, with placings behind Nordic Empire and Get The Nod and was close up behind Earthquake in the Blue Diamond. Didn’t pull up 100% after the McNeil behind Chivalry, and while he resumes here without a trial, class will take him a long way, provided he has come back in good order.

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Race Four (2:40pm) : Winslow Group Handicap (84) 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: If you backed Taiyoo (Best Odds: $2.80) last Saturday at the Valley, it was hard to swallow when fourth to Kingdom Of Dreams. Taiyoo had the dream run off the speed and looked as though he was going to be right in the finish on the turn…that was until he got held up and blocked for a run and virtually went to the line without being fully extended. He is much better on a bigger track, and is in fact unbeaten here, and in a couple of those races, he beat stronger opposition than what he faces here. Extremely hard to beat with normal luck.
Big Danger: Aurum Spirit (Best Odds: $7.50) flashed home from the back to win on Geelong Cup Day, then proved that was no fluke with an eye catching second to Sadaqa on Oaks Day at Flemington. The gelding then went to the Lakeside circuit and never got a decent crack at them when eighth to Magnapal, beaten four lengths. Up to 1800m suits and looks well placed.
Roughie: Duplicity Jones (Best Odds: $4.00) produced a really good first up run in late October at Cranbourne behind More Rewarding, working home strongly for third. The son of No Excuse Needed then went to that Magnapal and again worked to the line with real purpose, finishing fifth. He is a track specialist also and gets on the minimum. Definite chance.

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Race Five (3:15pm) : K S Environmental Handicap (78) 2400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Martinvast (Best Odds: $7.50) was given a beaut ride by Froggy last time out at the Valley and the horse looked home, but he couldn’t quite get the past the determined Averau, who refused to surrender. That’s his right level, and he finds it again here. Bigger track looks ideal, he is fitter and isn’t that bad in at the weights.
Big Danger: In these moderate off season staying races, it is always helpful to have a turn of foot and De Little Engine (Best Odds: $2.10) definitely has that. He showed it on Ballarat Cup Day, spanking his rivals by nearly five lengths after having the charmed run off the speed before letting down powerfully in the straight. Drops in weight from that outing to here, and appears on the up. Clear horse to beat, but I feel he’ll be too short in betting hence why I have gone with value in Martinvast.
Roughie: Makybe Diva’s  little brother Rodway (Best Odds: $11.00) was given a gun steer by Regan Bayliss to get the job done over 2040m last time out under the Moonee Valley nights, beating a pretty ordinary bunch, but he did get the win on the board, which will no doubt boost his confidence. Like his famous big sister, he is taking his time to show his best, but with a big track today, up in distance and with no weight on his back, he could be value at around the $10 mark.

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Race Six (3:55pm) : Doveton Stakes 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Go The Knuckle (Best Odds: $8.00) on top. He has always been a good horse at this level and a touch beyond and he proved that during the Autumn with a barnstorming first up win at the Valley, then running a narrow fourth to our Big Danger before placing behind Office Bearer in the Bel Esprit. Jumped out last week and looked pretty good there, finishing in the middle of a three way photo. He flies fresh and will love the hot speed here.
Big Danger: It Is Written (Best Odds: $12.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at the Valley where he had absolutely no luck behind Kaiser Sun, who would start near odds on against this lot. He might be known as a Moonee Valley specialist, but he has proven that he can run well away from there, with strong runs behind Sea Lord at Geelong and Atmospherical at Flemington on Oaks Day. He will be another suited by a strong speed and will be attacking the line late.
Roughie: I am a huge fan of Crooner (Best Odds: $11.00) and we get to see how good he just is. He had three runs in the Autumn, winning impressively first up at Sale before a third to Group l performer Marwood and a sixth to Neverending Valley, both of those defeats on wet tracks, which isn’t his go. He looked very sharp in a recent trial win at Cranbourne and will get a charmed sit off the hot tempo, and being on the minimum, he could take some running down.

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Race Seven (4:35pm) : Maurice Blackburn Lawyers Plate 1300m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Judicial Rock (Best Odds: $5.00) on top here. Her last start was in the Summoned Stakes (1500m) at this track. She attempted to lead all the way, and looked set to do just that with 300m to go, but she couldn’t quite hold off the brilliant finishing burst of Politeness, but did comfortably beat the rest. That’s the best form race for this, so she’s the one to beat IMO.
Big Danger: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $6.00) has been a bit frustrating to follow since coming to Melbourne for the Spring, but the writing was on the wall last start with her closing fourth to I Love It that a win might be just around the corner. It’s another good ride for Chad Schofield, and this mare will appreciate the big track and long straight, plus she has class.
Roughie: Paddy’s Gem (Best Odds: $4.80) is putting together a nice little record and her two runs back from a little break have been outstanding. She worked home strongly when second to Catch That Cat on Kyneton Cup Day. That mare came out and won last Saturday, so the form stacks up there. Paddy’s Gem then came to the Lakeside track and came with a well timed run to overhaul her rivals despite lumping 58.5kg. She tumbles 4.5kg here and is drawn to get a beaut run.

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Race Eight (5:15pm) : Doolan’s Heavy Haulage Handicap (78) 1500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Kincaple Chief (Best Odds: $13.00) powered home from a midfield position to win at Kilmore two back as a well backed favourite before going to the Lakeside track and running a closing third to Magnapal over a mile. Form hasn’t been franked, but Magnapal didn’t have luck when down the track last week at the Valley, so I wouldn’t worry about that because he was backed in betting. Kincaple Chief tends to save his best for this track and the likelihood of a strong tempo will play right into his hands.
Big Danger: Siegestor (Best Odds: $4.40) has promised to do a fair bit in his career, and he looks on track for a really good prep after a dominant win first up over 1200m on the Lakeside circuit, sweeping home from the rear and charging clear late to win impressively. He will only improve with added fitness and extra distance, so he looks the obvious threat.
Roughie: Too Deadly (Best Odds: $26.00) looked totally uncomfortable on the wet track at Warrnambool last time out, getting run off his legs early, but once balanced up on the turn, he really surged and savaged the line with purpose when running fourth to Artie’s Shore, a previous Group l performer, so the form doesn’t read too bad and this horse has proven to be competitive in town before, so a sneaky run at huge odds here wouldn’t surprise.

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Race Nine (5:50pm) : Robhar Breeding & Racing Plate (84) 1300m: Form Guide

Back Me: Aeratus (Best Odds: $6.00) really came of age last prep, winning five out of six runs and finishing second on the other occasion. He didn’t beat donkeys either, he did beat quality gallopers such as Wrotham Heath, Shenzhou Steeds and Harveys True Heart. Hasn’t been seen since July, but he did work home strongly in a recent Cranbourne barrier trial. He was a very impressive first up winner last time in and I can’t see any reason why he can’t do it again.
Big Danger: Lonrockstar (Best Odds: $6.00) can be a real tease, and he did that once again last Saturday at the Valley when beaten narrowly by Magnus Reign after getting a long way. He picked his way through the field and savaged the line to go within a half length of victory. He can be hard to trust as a punter, but the keys here are a good speed, bigger track and the return of a senior rider aboard.
Roughie: Floatmyboat (Best Odds: $10.00) warmed up strongly late to run second to Lady Lakshmi on Bendigo Cup Day before going to the Flemington Carnival and not getting a great deal of luck at a vital stage when sixth to Sadaqa over the mile on Oaks Day. He’s been given a few weeks to freshen up, finds a good race here and the stable is the one to follow during the Summer months.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14

Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 11, 12, 14

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.