6/11/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bet – Flemington, Crown Oaks day

Cup Day is done and dusted…now it’s time for the fairer sex to shine, and the fillies and mares dominate Thursday at Flemington, with the highlight race being the $1 Million Group l Crown Oaks (2500m). Prior to Saturday, all the talk was that trainer Robert Smerdon had the race at his mercy with Crafty, Lumosty and Fontein Ruby. But after the Wakeful Stakes (2000m), the race has been thrown wide open with the likes of Abduction, Thunder Lady, Fenway and Goldconda all producing excellent Oaks trials. Crafty holds sway at the top of the market, narrowly ahead of Go Indy Go and Lumosty.

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Race One (12:15pm): 7News Plate (70) 1700m: Form Guide

Back Me: Arianne (Best Odds: $9.50) has had two career starts, both at Ballarat, and she has been quite impressive at each outing. On debut she ran a closing second to the above average A Million Tears, then had the box seat trail and proved too good for her rivals next time out. Bred to appreciate further ground, which she gets here, and the stable are in Group l winning form.

Big Danger: Tear Gas (Best Odds: $7.00) was unwanted in betting first up on Geelong Cup Day, but gee made up a stack of ground to run fifth, beaten just under three lengths. Definitely getting to her home track suits, as does the rise to 1700m. She can be hot and cold in her form, but if she is on, she has a touch of class about her. Did run in the Oaks last year.

Roughie: Kazemi (Best Odds: $31.00) worked home well when resuming at Bendigo to run a close up fourth before going to Mornington and despite traffic problems, Jamie Mott burst the mare through to grab victory on the post. Lightly raced daughter of High Chaparral, has upside, and was due to run in a much easier race later in the week, but they have elected to run here.

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Race Two (12:55pm): Swisse Wellness Trophy (90) 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: This is the first time that we get to see Saigon Tea in Melbourne for Chris Waller after doing all of her racing in Sydney. She tried her guts out last time when beaten narrowly by Grand Marshall, and really only got beat because Jim Cassidy lifted the horse over the line. She’s paying for her consistency in the weights, and doesn’t really look well placed on that front, but she has the Waller polish and a stack of upside.

Big Danger: By The Grace (Best Odds: $6.00) produced a cracking first up run at Caulfield behind subsequent Group l contender Late Charge, then was just fair in his two following runs before being much better at Caulfield when a close up fourth to London Srtipe at Caulfield, who has since run well. Out to 1800m is the query, but he is on the minimum and has Ollie engaged.

Roughie: Smashing Doubt produced a barnstorming finish under the urgings of Ollie to win impressively over 1700m on Geelong Cup in an easier assignment than what he faces here, but the manner in which he disposed of his rivals was really eye catching. Back to his home track now and on the limit, so he rates as a chance.

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Race Three (1:35pm): Gucci Stakes 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: I am taking on the proven fillies up the top and looking for some value and I reckon there is value in the Noel Mayfield-Smith trained Unequivocal (Best Odds: $11.00). On debut she closed off well at Randwick in the Inglis Classic (1200m) when third to Peggy Jean and Boomwaa, then went to Rosehill and beat Delectation and Peggy Jean…everywhere you look there and you find Group l form. Hasn’t had an official barrier trial, but did have a jump out at Flemington a couple of weeks back and looked very sharp there. I am keen on her each way.

Big Danger: Chiavari (Best Odds: $14.00) might only be coming off a Cranbourne maiden win, but the manner in which she did it was very impressive. She did work from a wide draw to eventually sit on the speed, then took care of the leader on the turn and safely held off a stakes performer to win and win with ease. Big step up here, but I was quite taken by that performance.

Roughie: Forget Dual Star (Best Odds: $16.00) when she resumed at Warwick Farm. The track was an absolute bog and she simply couldn’t pick her feet up and dropped out. She is much better than that, and her trial win prior was outstanding, so I wouldn’t be jumping off her yet, and I do like the fact that Paul Messara has brought her down when he easily could have stayed in Sydney.

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Race Four (2:15pm): APIA Subzero Challenge Final 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Specter (Best Odds: $9.50) on top. He can be a frustrating horse to follow, but he wasn’t too bad I thought when resuming on Moe Cup Day on a very wet track. He ran fifth, beaten three lengths in what was a far stronger race than what he contests here. This will be the first time he races on a firm track since April, and with Jim Cassidy engaged, expect different tactics from previous runs, and I reckon he is worth the gamble each way.

Big Danger: Beauty’s Beast (Best Odds: $4.60) has attempted to lead all the way in his two runs under the care of Danny O’Brien this time in, and it simply hasn’t worked, and he is starting to test the patience of punters, because we saw in the Autumn how good he can be. Had his chance in a heat of this series at Caulfield but back on his home track and a cold ride could spark improvement, because considering he is a blacktype winner, he does look well placed on his best form.

Roughie: Lady Echelon (Best Odds: $15.00) was an impressive two back over the mile at Doomben, then went to the Ladies Day Vase (1600m) at Caulfield and got stuck wide for the duration and dropped out to run last behind Star Fashion, who ran well in the Myer Classic on the weekend. Big drop in class here, drawn well, and the bigger surroundings will be more suitable to her than Caulfield.

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Race Five (2:55pm): TCL 4K UHD TV Stakes 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: Team Snowden were desperate to get Proactive (Best Odds: $4.40) into the Derby, but he failed last time out at Newcastle as a short priced favourite, running second…but running third in that race was Thunder Lady, and she was an impressive winner of the Wakeful on Saturday and will be a leading player in the Oaks later this afternoon. This looks a pretty thin race, and even though he is a maiden, I’ll be with him here.

Big Danger: Easy Drama (Best Odds: $11.00) wasn’t suited by the on-pace bias first up at the Valley behind Tudor, then went to Caulfield and was much better over the mile when a closing fifth to Bondeiger, who went within a lip of winning the Derby on the weekend. Up to 1800m suits, is already a winner at Flemington and still appears to have plenty of upside.

Roughie: Singularity (Best Odds: $13.00) worked home well two back at Cranbourne, then went to the Fillies Classic (1600m) on Cox Plate and ran fourth to Lumosty, beaten just over four lengths. I reckon a more conservative ride and a clear run here, and she is a definite player here at good odds. Should be noted that her and Easy Drama ran second and first respectively here in April and Singularity meets that colt 2kg better off for a length defeat.

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Race Six (3:35pm): G.H. Mumm Stakes 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Reluctantly  going with Shamal Wind (Best Odds: $7.00). I think under the conditions here, she is the best horse in the race, but she has looked like that at her past few outings and hasn’t won, so that’s my worry, but she did close off really well in the Caulfield Sprint (1100m) behind Miracles Of Life, beaten a short head. She does get a weight pull on Miracles Of Life, so I’ll just go with Shamal Wind.

Big Danger: Vain Queen (Best Odds: $5.00) has been a very frustrating horse to follow for the punters, because we know she has the ability, but she can be very hot and cold. I thought her chance last time out at Caulfield in the Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m) behind Target In Sight, but I don’t think she is a strong 1200m horse. Fresh, 1100m, home track, minimum weight…looks a really good race for her off a freshen up.

Roughie: It might have been a dead heat win with Bel Sprinter, but Miracles Of Life (Best Odds: $9.00) was brave in winning there. She was first up for five months and sat on a hot speed yet kept finding when asked and duly got a win, even though she had to share it. She looks beautifully placed here, because she should get the perfect sit off speed demon Minaj and pounce on her, then hopefully not let Shamal Wind pounce on her.

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Race Seven (4:15pm): Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Waddle your finger and hope for the best here! I am going to go for an emergency here in the shape of Consorting (Best Odds: $13.00). He produced a barnstorming to win a heat of the 955m 55 second challenge at the Valley, against the bias, then contested another heat and had absolutely no luck when fourth to Diamond Oasis. They have figured out the key to this horse- Fast run sprint race and blouse them late, and with abundance of speed engaged here, he gets conditions to suit at good odds.

Big Danger: If you backed Straight Gold (Best Odds: $14.00) at the Valley on Cox Plate Day, best to forgive and forget he went around when 9th of 10 to Eight Bills. He never, ever got a crack at them and went to the line a stranglehold. He did work brilliantly prior to that with stablemate and Group l place getter Not Listenin’tome, so that tells there is nothing wrong with the way he is physically, and I rate him a serious threat here.

Roughie: One for exotics at huge, huge odds is Belfast Boy (Best Odds: $34.00). Two back he ran in the race which claimed the life of Caitlin Forrest, so best to put a pen through that race as a form reference and go on his last start effort when he stormed home from the back to run third against the bias towards leaders. Big leap in class here, but he has a fantastic record at Flemington and the patient Dwayne Dunn steers, which will suit this horse and his racing pattern.

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Race Eight (5:00pm): Crown Oaks 2500m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting the Adelaide filly Go Indy Go (Best Odds: $6.00)on top. She has had a mixed campaign, but there was plenty to like about her effort in the Vase (2040m) at Moonee Valley, making up a stack of ground at the back to finish third, just ahead of Bondeiger, who went within a lip of winning the Derby on the weekend, so the form has held up really well, and with this filly, she has always looked as if she will love the step up to 2500m. In terms of brilliance, there isn’t much between her and Lumosty, but I think with the staying potential, I’ll lean with Go Indy Go.

Big Danger: Lumosty (Best Odds: $5.00) wasn’t suited by the slow tempo in the Thousand Guineas (1600m), like Go Indy Go. Lumosty then went to the Fillies Classic over the same trip, and after being given quite an arrogant ride by Nick Hall, she toyed with her rivals. She didn’t beat much, but the manner in which she did it was really impressive. She has that Mosheen look about her in the sense that she probably isn’t a stayer, but she might just have the brilliance to beat them.

Roughie: Goldconda (Best Odds: $21.00) was really good in the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) on Saturday I thought. She made up plenty of ground from near last, and warmed to the task beautifully the final 150m. For mine, she was the pick of the runners from the Wakeful and you’re getting $21. Great value chance because she is one who should get the trip.

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Race Nine (5:45pm): Oaks Resorts Plate 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Ordinary race to end the program. I’ll go with Red Inca (Best Odds: $6.50). He can be a real tease of a horse in the sense he loves to flash home, but not quite good enough to win. In saying that, his run last time out in the Sale Cup (1600m) was outstanding when a close up third to Queensland Derby winner Sonntag. He has a solid record, and the bigger track will be more his go and not Sale.

Big Danger: Arctic Song (Best Odds: $3.60) has semi turned it up at his past couple. He looked home two back at Caulfield but was nailed by London Stripe right on the peg, who has since run well again. He then went to the Valley and looked to have every chance when a narrow second to Leveraction, but that horse led all the way, and there was a dynamite on pace bias that night. Drawn well, on his home track…gets every chance.

Roughie: Aurum Spirit (Best Odds: $11.00) produced a big effort to win on Geelong Cup Day given he was up to 1500m second up after racing over 1000m fresh. The big leap in distance and the fact the race was run at a strong tempo really added more merit to his win, so I wouldn’t rule him out here at odds and there won’t be much between him and his more fancied stablemate, Floatmyboat.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13, 15

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 15, 16, 18

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8

Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 $50 Investment = 3.12% of the dividend if successful.

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.