Flemington have their first super saturday this weekend and that is also the case for Randwick. Four Group l races will be run and won at the premier racetrack in Sydney, with the main race being the $500,000 The Star Epsom Handicap (1600m). Fat Al and Shoot Out share early favourtism at $5, with Ambidexter, Rangirangdoo and Secret Admirer hot on their heels at the $7-$9 mark.
Unbeaten stars Proisir and It’s A Dundeel are set to lock horns in the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m). Both have looked awesome in winning three races each this time in and look head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
Dear Demi, despite being disappointing in the Tea Rose, is the $3 top pick to take out the Flight Stakes (1600m). She heads betting just over unbeaten flyer Urban Groove, a most impressive winner last week. Norzita is the next best at $4.20.
Glencadam Gold puts his Cups aspirations on the line in the Metropolitan (2400m), where he is a $4.40 second pick behind last start Hill Stakes (2000m) winner Lamasery at $4.20. The former English stayer has been brilliant since linking up with Gai Waterhouse and from all reports, he has been flying in trackwork.
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Race One: Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Three horse between Guelph, Shahad and Sugar Rush. All three are bred in the purple and it’s hard to separate them. Slight leaning towards Shahad, only because of the barrier advantage she has.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the three mentioned above.
Big Danger: Guelph and Sugar Rush are the two main dangers. They have both trialled superbly and are in top stables. The only problem is that they both have awkward draws, but they appear to have enough ability to overcome that.
Roughie: Brilliant Bisc raced quite greenly in her barrier trial behind Guelph. She also showed a bit of speed as well, so I expect her to take advantage of the good barrier. Sneaky chance.
$500 Shahad Free Bet
Race Two: Nsw Thoroughbred Breeders Plate 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of Regimental Pride. This David Payne trained youngster is the son of the wonderful mare Regimental Gal. He has trialled nicely leading up to this and appears to be overs at $13 given he is drawn to get the gun run.
Don’t Back Me: Va Pensiero won the quickest barrier trial of the morning at Warwick Farm the other day where he sat on the speed and kept going. But I feel he’ll have to do too much work from the awkward barrier.
Big Danger: War won like a very good horse in his lone barrier trial where he led and held them comfortably. Bred in the purple and looks ready to win on debut. The stablemate Whittington also looks well above average. Keep an eye on him.
Roughie: Champollion had an easy time of it when finishing second in his barrier trial. The Snowden camp must always be respected when producing juveniles.
$500 Regimental Pride Free Bet
Race Three: Vili’s Pie Roman Consul Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: It might have only been a class one at Hawkesbury, but gee I was impressed with the way Jolie Bay attacked the line when she won first up there. She had trialled nicely leading up to it. She missed the start, was forced to sit last, peeled out the widest, took a little while to wind up, but once she did, she looked very classy. I wouldn’t think this is beyond her.
Don’t Back Me: Ichihara is not a $1.75 chance. I still think she is a contender, but not a betting prospect, especially at that price.
Big Danger: Your Song did far too much in the Golden Rose where he sat outside a hot speed. Forget he went around and look at his second to Pierro in the Run To The Rose. That was an outstanding performance and based on that run, he is a huge threat.
Roughie: Knight Exemplar had the race won last start, but he just ran out of condition late and was grabbed near the line. He is fitter, on his home track and the small field should help his cause.
$500 Jolie Bay Free Bet
Race Four: Apn Outdoor Craven Plate 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: In, in, in on Mourayan. One of the good things of the afternoon. Great first up run in the Makybe Diva where he sat three deep on the speed and stuck on fourth before racing over this track/distance in the Hill Stakes and toughing it out well for a narrow defeat to Lamasery. Fitter, should overcome the wide barrier and he just looks the winner. Clear class edge on these.
Don’t Back Me: I know he had no luck in the race, but I still thought Western Symbol was ordinary in the Cameron at Newcastle. Doesn’t deserve to be a $5.50 chance.
Big Danger: Class Is Class appears to be ticking over nicely for this. Hit the line well in the Tramway at his Australian debut, then found a couple too strong in the Hill Stakes. He should be cherry ripe for this and looks the only realistic threat to Mourayan.
Roughie: Gazza Guru isn’t a wfa horse, so I don’t expect him to win. But it’s interesting to note that Steve Farley scratched the horse from the Port Macquarie Cup in favour of this. Keep an eye on him because he is racing so well without winning.
$500 Mourayan Free Bet
Race Five: Chandon Spring Champion Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Proisir is a superstar and he’ll be winning this. Easy kill on debut at Hawkesbury, then toyed with them at Rosehill before controlling the tempo in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle and sprinting away like a superstar. 2000m will be no issue. He’ll either lead or sit behind the stablemate King Of Olympia. Either way, he’ll win.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the favourite.
Big Danger: It’s A Dundeel is one of the key contenders for the Victorian Derby, so he’ll only get better as the races get longer. But he has done nothing wrong this time in. He was impresive last start in the Gloaming. If the pace is crazy up in front, he will be hitting the line better than anything else.
Roughie: King Of Olympia had every right to finish 100m last in the Gloaming given he was on a very hot speed, but he toughed it out superbly. If there is to be a shock in the race, it could come from this bloke.
$500 Proisir Free Bet
Race Six: Coolmore Flight Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m just not sold on the Sydney fillies at the moment. So I am going to tip the second roughest filly in betting, Gondokoro. Why you ask? Just concentrate on her last two starts. She had very little luck at Bendigo where she got back and didn’t get clear room, then last week at Geelong she sat worse than midfield, had to go to the inside, which was the no-go zone, yet ran on strongly for third. Yes, this might be a bit rich for her, but Pat Carey knows what it takes to win a group one with a roughie and at $51, why not have a throw at the stumps?
Don’t Back Me: If I had to pick out one, maybe Jade Marauder? She hasn’t had much luck recently, but she again draws poorly and might get back luck again.
Big Danger: Dear Demi was ridden poorly in the Tea Rose. Look for her to bounce back. Norzita had the Tea Rose, but threw it away by laying in. If she brings her manners, she’ll be right in the mix and Urban Groove oozed class last Saturday and can easily back up and win this.
Roughie: I have a bit of time for Duet. Loved her debut run at Newcastle and then at Canterbury. She put it all together at Kembla at her next start with a dominant on-pace victory. She should get the gun run from the barrier and can bob up at odds.
$500 Gondokoro Free Bet
Race Seven: The Star Epsom Handicap 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Except for maybe one or two, this is the most open Epsom I can recall. Going for Fat Al. Yes, he was beaten last week as a $1.30 favourite, but he is a horse that needs to roll along in front and get into his rhythm. He carried 58kg last week. He drops to 52kg for this. Top pick for me.
Don’t Back Me: Happy to leave out Secret Admirer. Perennial placegetter and not a winner.
Big Danger: Hard to rule out Shoot Out. Massive effort by all concerned when he came out on top to win the George Main a few weeks back. He is the class galloper in the race and although he has to give some weight away to smart types, he’ll be right there in the finish because he is a tough bugger.
Roughie: Yosei, Kontiki Park, Somepin Anypin, Wild And Proud, Said Com and Gangster’s Choice are the roughies, especially the last one. He is underrated and he could surprise many.
$500 Fat Al Free Bet
Race Eight:Mcgrath- The Metropolitan 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: There has been an avalanche of money for Glencadam Gold and it’s hard to argue with that given how impressive he has been recently, especially his last start Newcastle Cup romp. Sure, he beat nothing, but the way he went about it was most impressive. And the good thing is that he still has improvement left in him. Clear top pick.
Don’t Back Me: The Waller pair of Stout Hearted and Kelinni. Both have been up for a long time and it’d be quite a training feat if either of them could win, in particular Kelinni after his huge win last week where he sat three wide throughout in a 2400m race.
Big Danger: Lamasery had to win eventually and he did it, albeit narrowly, in the Hill Stakes, beating classy galloper Mourayan. From the inside barrier, Robl should have the horse asleep and ready to pounce whenever he likes. Can he beat the top tip though? I doubt it.
Roughie: Keep a close eye on Fictional Account. He has plenty of upside and his run at the Valley behind Buxted was solid. Don’t leave him out of exotics at $35.
$500 Glencadam Gold Free Bet
Race Nine: Styletread Premiere Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: In, in, in again on Rain Affair. Yes, he was terrible at Warwick Farm. Put that down to the rock hard track and the fact he was first up. There’ll be some give in the ground by the time this race is run, so conditions will be perfect. Brown is back on board, inside barrier, should control the race and the $2.20 on offer is a steal.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the top tip. He looks a class above these at this track/distance.
Big Danger: Red Tracer is a first up specialist (4:2-0-2). Has trialled well leading up to this and she loves the track/distance. Streama is the best horse in the race, but might struggle to win at 1200m. But her first up run was a beauty so it’s hard to ignore her.
Roughie: Emotional Circus got a bit too far back in the Shorts, but still got home nicely for seventh. The hot pace expected up front will really suit this mare and she could easily win without surprising me. But I do feel the top tip will be too nippy, provided he brings his A-game.
$500 Rain Affair Free Bet
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