6/11/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Melbourne Cup day

The Cup Carnival at Flemington continues on Tuesday with a monster ten race card, highlighted by the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup (3200m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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If she runs up to the debut, 1 Champagne Boom (Bet Now: $2.25) will be winning. She was kept pretty safe in betting when having her first start in the Debutant and despite some ugly steering into clear, gee she lengthened like a good horse and won with class and authority. Ran well down the straight in a jump out so no issue there, got the race experience and seemingly a stack of brilliance.

11 Sisstar (Bet Now: $4.20) is a regally bred for Tony McEvoy having her first start. Being by Zoustar out of the former high class mare Solar Charged, you’d expect her to come to hand quickly and being the full sister to Sunlight, you’d like to think that’s the case, and that appears so off a couple of really encouraging trials. Big watch.

6 Bella Rosa (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Snitzel filly on debut for the Maher/Eustace stable. Bred to come to hand early and that appears to be the case off a Cranbourne trial win where she looked to do things rather nicely and seemingly under a hold. That was back in September and I can’t find a recent jump out so market will be the guide but she looks decent enough.

Trifecta BET 💰- 1,11/1,6,10,11/1,6,9,10,11

5 Mamzelle Tess (Bet Now: $5.00) is an absolute beauty for the Corstens team and is deserving of a win. Ran in the Tesio on Cox Plate Day where she had the suck run just off the speed and tried hard as she always does when second to Shoko. The only negative with her is a strong 1700m. Will she run it? That’s her only question mark.

There is a bit to like about the Matt Cumani trained 12 One More Try (Bet Now: $5.50). Few weeks between runs since racing over the Bendigo mile where she was very impressive in coming from the back to get the win, admittedly the race was set up for her via a decent clip. Should get the suck run behind Mamzelle Tess and be strong late.

2 Samovare…(Bet Now: $15.00) there’s a question mark on how well she’s going, but gee this is the weakest race she has contested since joining the Hayes/Dabernig team. Hasn’t raced since the Coongy Cup where she wasn’t beaten far when fifth to Best Of Days/Mask Of Time. That form has been franked big time and she does have class/quality.

Trifecta BET 💰- 5,12/1,2,5,7,9,12/1,2,5,7,9,12

Is 10 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $2.90) a contender of pretender? If he is to head to the Railway in Perth he’d want to be winning this. Thought he was going to win last time at Caulfield but Manuel just had it too good in front and fought on strongly. Interesting to see where Ben Allen puts this horse from a tricky draw. Best horse in the race by far…I think. Just want to see him confirm that.

2 Manuel (Bet Now: $14.00) found winning form in the race mentioned above and it was largely down to an absolute peach of a steer in front from McEvoy, who controlled things beautifully and rightfully kicked on. He won’t lead here with Crafty Cop and Oak Door coming over, but he could land a dream sit just off them.

17 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $23.00) looks very well suited up to 1400m. This bloke was quite good first up down the Flemington straight behind Haunted before going to the 1400m at Bendigo where he just had no turn of foot but was strong late behind Penny To Sell. Like him third up at 1400m and is a definite threat provided he doesn’t get too far back.

Trifecta BET 💰- 10/F/F

If he’s right, 10 Shraaoh (Bet Now: $5.50) is the bet of the day. Speaking to Jamie Lovett a few days ago, he was very happy with this purchase and is expecting good things from him. His UK form just reads so well, with the likes of Hamada, Poet’s Word and Muntahaa in there. That form just reads far superior to this and from all reports he’s loving life at Werribee.

12 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $4.20) the one to beat of the locals. Darren Weir has this bloke going really well at the moment, winning two on the bounce before racing over 2400m at Caulfield where he was one of the first under pressure when Valac took off but he just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed on the line by stablemate Azuro. 2800m on the big track looks ideal.

16 Ilwendo (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Matty Smith trained stayer from Warwick Farm who comes here off the back of a solid placing on his home track at Warwick Farm where he batted away at the one speed but was far from disgraced when third to Tamarack. He’s racing as if the 2800m will suit and down in the weights, she can threaten.

Trifecta BET 💰- 10/1,3,12,14,16,17/F

Very keen to see the resumption of 8 Singular Sensation (Bet Now: $7.50), formerly with Steve O’Dea but is now with Tony Gollan. This girl, IMO, was the best youngster in Queensland last season, or at very least alongside Sesar. Won 2/2 in the Spring of last year before being tipped out. Now with Gollan and she went like a jet in a recent Doomben trial.

3 Legend Of Condor (Bet Now: $4.80) is bursting to win a race. He has just been plagued by wet tracks this time in but his effort in the Brian Crowley when beaten narrowly by Diplomatico was a beauty. Loomed large to win and was going to run past that horse but he couldn’t let down on the track. Back on top of the ground, he’s a definite threat.

I’ve learned not to put a line through Adelaide gallopers so giving a bit of respect to 2 Heaven’s Deal (Bet Now: $9.00). Really poor resumption behind stablemate Schilldora before being freshened up and winning impressively over this trip. Stable should always be respected when they come to Melbourne.

Trifecta BET 💰- 3,8/3,6,7,8/1,3,6,7,8

5 Beauty (Bet Now: $6.50), my word she is. 3/3 for Tony McEvoy and her win on Cox Plate Day was outstanding. Covered ground, had to come somewhat wide on the turn but still finished best and won impressively. She’ll eat up 1400m and the bigger track, and should get decent three wide cover from the draw. The one to beat.

12 Mirette (Bet Now: $4.00) is a talented filly for Archie Alexander who comes out of a hot maiden win at Benalla before going to the Thousand Guineas where she was far from disgraced behind Amphitrite. I think that’s really good form for this and no surprise to see support. Just needs cover from a sticky gate.

9 Into The Abyss (Bet Now: $12.00) comes through the race mentioned above won by Beauty and you could make a case she should have been right in the finish. Just had no luck at a vital stage when trying to build momentum. Surely won’t get caught in traffic from the wide gate this time around and hopefully we can see what’s under the hood.

Trifecta BET 💰- 5,6,9,12/3,5,6,9,12/3,5,6,9,12,13,17

3 Magic Circle (Bet Now: $8.00) heads into the Cup first up in Australia, similar to that of Rekindling last year who proved it can be done. His last two starts he has blitzed his rivals in some good staying races winning both by 6L. To the eye, he looks a Melbourne Cup type of horse. He will definitely run the distance, he relaxes well and he has a brilliant turn of foot which is needed. The reports from the stable is that he has thrived since arriving and will be set to run a massive race on Tuesday.

Write off Lloyd at your own peril. 11 Yucatan (Bet Now: $6.00) looks the horse the others will need to beat and his price suggests that. His Herbert Power win was the one of the best Cup trials you’ll see and if he runs up to that, he will be very hard to beat. As with all Cup runners there are some negatives. Firstly, the price. $4.50 in a Melbourne Cup is too short for any horse. Secondly, can he run a strong two miles? I don’t know. Finally, can he maintain his first up form, because his form prior was not the best and he arguably didn’t beat much at Caulfield.

What to do with 9 Marmelo (Bet Now: $13.00). I thought he would be very hard to beat in the Cup last year and was a bit disappointing. He still hasn’t really proven himself as a strong 3200m horse although if they go slow throughout he is arguably one of if not the best 2800m horse in the race. There are definitely a lot of unknowns with him but thats the same for most horses but if he is close to his best, he is definitely good enough to win this.

I can’t believe the odds you can get for 22 Youngstar (Bet Now: $16.00). Her run in the Caulfield Cup, IMHO, was clearly the best of the race given they did no work in front, they crawled and those out the back really had no hope. She did an amazing job to get as close as she did. Two miles will be no issue for her, remains down in the weights, better suited at Flemington and the Turnbull run, she ran a beauty behind Winx. That’s the form to be respected. And she grows a leg if it’s wet.

Trifecta BET 💰- BOX: 3,5,9,11,22,23,24

3 Life Less Ordinary (Bet Now: $4.60) looks the one to beat. Chris Waller trains this bloke, who comes here off a 2000m run in the Coongy Cup behind Best Of Days/Mask Of Time, and was unlucky not to finish closer. The 2000m back in trip formula is one used to great effect by Waller, so I’m giving this bloke the nod in a pretty decent race.

It was hard to miss the resumption of 7 Kiwia (Bet Now: $9.50) in the VOBIS Gold Star on Manikato night. He was back against the bias but loved the way he poked his way through and attacked the line with purpose. Was well backed second up last prep but got a mile back. Like him second up at 1800m and draws to get a lovely run.

Jury is out on 4 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $31.00) but perhaps back up in trip and back to Flemington can spark him into action. Thought he was okay last time out in the Crystal Mile at the Valley when finishing behind Cliff’s Edge. Tends to save his best for Flemington and this looks a considerable drop in depth.

Trifecta BET 💰- 3,4,7/3,4,5,7,13/3,4,5,7,13

13 After All That (Bet Now: $11.00) is a beauty for Rod Northam. Outstanding first up run in the Shorts behind Ball Of Muscle before going to the Kosciuszko where he got back and probably wasn’t entirely happy on the bog track but the effort was more than sound in defeat behind Belflyer. Back on top of the ground, hard fit now, he can run a belter.

It was just an utter nightmare if you were on 6 Trekking (Bet Now: $5.00) at Caulfield last time. Looked to be in a good spot but when it came to getting clear air, he had no luck in the straight and went to the line as if it was a barrier trial. Racing down the straight is a little query, and he’s been up a while, but continues to race well.

Huge fan of 17 Teleplay (Bet Now: $23.00) for Mick Price. Smashed the clock when winning first up at Ballarat before going to the Mares race on Geelong Cup Day where she had no hope the way the track played and in the end, she was outstanding in defeat behind Moonlover. Not sure she can measure up to these, but a must for exotics.

Trifecta BET 💰- BOX: 4,6,13,17

She’s a beauty is 4 Princess Posh (Bet Now: $8.50) and I don’t think you can go wrong backing her each way. Been up forever it seems but gee she’s going well for Kris Lees. Loved her run on Cox Plate Day in the Tesio against the bias when closing off to run third to Shoko. Bit of juice in the track is perfect, back to 1400m a big tick, hard fit/in form, she’ll do me.

6 Savapinski (Bet Now: $11.00) is a quality mare for the WaterBott team who seemingly was disappointing first up in track record time at the Valley behind Runson but bear in mind she pulled up with a throat issue, so there was an excuse. Bolted up at this track this time last year and at her best, she’s certainly capable of beating these.

17 Spanner Head (Bet Now: $20.00) is a daughter of Helmet for the Archie Alexander team who somewhat overachieved I thought in the Paris Lane last time at Flemington when on speed and fighting on strongly to run second to Eckstein, who has since run well in the Nivison. I think that form reads quite well for this and stable has to be respected.

Trifecta BET 💰- 4,6,17/1,2,4,6,9,12,15,17/1,2,4,6,9,12,15,17

BEST BET: Race Four Number 10 Shraaoh

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Champagne Boom

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 13 After All That

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 17, 22

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7, 13, 14

Leg Three: 5, 6, 13, 17

Leg Four: 4, 6, 9, 17

$50 Investment= 5.2% of the dividend if successful

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