5/10/2013 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

Feature Victorian racing returns to Flemington on Saturday for Turnbull Stakes day which has attracted a fantastic field of runners this year. The day is a ten race program with the feature races being the Turnbull Stakes, Gilgai Stakes, Edward Manifold Stakes, Blazer Stakes and the Bart Cummings.

The current track condition at Flemington is a Dead 4 and there is no rain forecast for Friday and only light showers for Saturday so i don’t expect the track to change much between now and race time.

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Race One: Maribyrnong Trial Stakes 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Euchre Star has won his only trial which was on a heavy track. The Niconi breed is known for throwing up early two year olds and he looks to fit that match. In a race that all runners are having their first start he looks a good value bet at $10.
Don’t Back Me: Risen From Doubt has won two trials heading into the race but has been a notable drifter in the market so at the odds i wont be backing him although this is a very hard race to have a dont back me in.
Big Danger: Dragons Eye is the only Darley runner in the race and has to be respected. Darley always performs in these two year old races and i doubt this year will be any different.
Roughie: Princess Kachia isn’t trained by a big name trainer although Luke Nolen takes the ride so at the $34 she has to be respected.

$500 Euchre Star Free Bet

Race Two: Uci Stakes 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Orion i don’t think really handled Moonee Valley too well last start and i think he will be much better suited at Flemington on Saturday. He has drawn well and i think the distance will be perfect for him. Currently a $5 chance in betting and i think he will start shorter come race time.
Don’t Back Me: Rockford had all the favours last start in a form race that hasn’t shown much since. Has been backed into $4.20 and with two starts at Flemington for just the one placing i will be leaving her out.
Big Danger: Epic Saga chimed in very strongly last start at Caulfield in the race won by Rockford. Doesn’t meet him that well in the weights here but i think he will be the horse to improve more from that run.
Roughie: Famechon put in a massive run last start when not beaten far on the line. Goes into Saturday’s race as a maiden but i think he has a massive chance at $26 to break that status.

$500 Orion Free Bet

Race Three: Yellowglen Vintage Stakes 1410m Form Guide

Back Me: Paximadia won on debut before going on to contest some very good races over the Autumn and Winter were he was competitive. This is an easier race for him and he races well fresh which he showed on debut and the influx of money for him which has seen him firm into $3.30 suggests he will go very close.
Don’t Back Me: Kingdom Of Dreams won in midweek company last start and i was surprised he opened so short in this race thus at $5.50 i wont be backing him.
Big Danger: Murtle Turtle has had a long run of placings and he run last start suggested she would be winning at her next outing although she has found a tricky race to do that in. She has drawn perfectly and is well weighted in the race so at $10 i will be keeping her safe.
Roughie: Churchill Dancer was luckless at Moonee Valley last start and back to Flemington he will be much better. $15 in betting and will probably start longer come race time but i think he is a very chance in the race.

$500 Paximadia Free Bet

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Race Four: Cap D’antibes Stakes 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Menage A Charge had no luck last start at Caulfield so i am happy to put a line through that run. Two starts ago she won at the track and distance and i think she can replicate that run on Saturday were she is a $10 chance.
Don’t Back Me: Anatina won well at Geelong on the synthetic surface last start although im not a fan of the synthetic form heading in to these sorts of races so i wont be including her.
Big Danger: Chloe In Paris ran a massive race on debut at Caulfield in a good form race in which she led and was only run down late in which she was entitled to do as the pace of the race was strong throughout. If she get’s an easier run in front on Saturday she will be very hard to beat.
Roughie: Romancingthestone has impressed me in four of her five starts and the other run was on a heavy track which she didn’t handle at all. She will go around at big odds in the race and i think she is a live winning chance.

$500 Menage A Charge Free Bet

Race Five: Headquarters Tavern Stakes 1410m Form Guide

Back Me: British General did the donkey work for the rest of the field last start and he wasn’t beaten too far on the line. He has a very good record over the track and distance winning three times and placing twice from five tries. Happy to give him one more chance and the $7 looks relatively good value.
Don’t Back Me: Don’t Get Excited was well backed last start and had every chance although the report said he bled so with that information i wont be backing him here.
Big Danger: Launay loves Flemington having won five times from seven tries at the track. He has been okay at his two starts this preparation but should improve from those runs and he will be hard to beat on Saturday at $8.
Roughie: Molto Bene was impressive in South Australia at his first run this preparation and he looked like he will be better for the run. Will start close to double figure odds and he is one of the horses i think they will have to beat.

$500 British General Free Bet

Race Six: The Bart Cummings 2520m Form Guide

Back Me: Tanby looks very well placed in this race on Saturday. His third up record is very good having won three form four and he likes the distance as well. He will have to carry a large weight although he is against an easier field than he has been up against in his career and the $12 on offer looks very good value.
Don’t Back Me: Sea Moon has run twelfth and thirteen at his two Australian starts and he has opened at $2.30 on Saturday. There is no way you can take those odds simply based on his overseas ability as he hasn’t shown much since coming to Australia.
Big Danger: Moudre i thought run an exceptional race in the Naturalism were he made a stack of ground in a race that the tempo was heavily against him. He will be better back at Flemington and there looks to be more speed in this race which will suit him. The $7 on offer looks good value and im happy to take those odds each way.
Roughie: Brigantin returned with a very good run i thought with the big weight at Flemington close to a month ago. He will be better for the run and he showed in the Geelong Cup he has plenty of ability. At $18 in betting at the moment and i think there may be some late supporting for him.

$500 Tanby Free Bet

Race Seven: Edward Manifold Stakes 1610m Form Guide

Back Me: Romantic Moon i think is coming through by far the best form race from all of the runners in the field. She raced wide last start and the run before that she went back in a slowly run race. She will find this easier and at $6 looks a good bet.
Don’t Back Me: Politeness has raced at Flemington twice and is yet to place. She finds another tough field on Saturday and i doubt she will get a win in this race.
Big Danger: Wordplay has won and ran twice from three career starts and she looks very hard to beat in this race and punters agree having backed her from $6 into $4.50.
Roughie: Godiva Rock has placed on three of her four career starts but will go into the race still a maiden. She wasn’t fully tested last time out and i think she can certainly break her maiden status on Saturday at $14.

$500 Romantic Moon Free Bet

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Race Eight: Turnbull Stakes 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Puissance De Lune looks very well suited in this race and with the 56.5kg on his back i think he will be winning on Saturday. He has drawn the inside barrier so won’t have to do any work throughout the race and with a little bit of luck will be hitting the line strongly. He is getting out to very good odds of $4.40 which im happy to take.
Don’t Back Me: Royal Descent will jump as the likely second favourite in the race but im not quite sure she is up to this quality of a race. She raced well in the George Main Stakes but she had all the favours. Prefer to watch her here and look at the Caulfield Cup as a betting proposition for her.
Big Danger: Hawkspur didn’t have much go right for him in the George Main Stakes so im happy to put a line through that run and before that he had won four of his past five races. I think he will handle Flemington and the straight will be perfect for him.
Roughie: Fawkner drops 4.5kg from the George Main Stakes in which he hit the line really well in. He loves Flemington and will enjoy the distance despite probably wanting further. He has a very good third up record and is a massive player in the race.

$500 Puissance De Lune Free Bet

Race Nine: Gilgai Stakes 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Sessions i thought was massive last start he went back in a relatively slowly run race and over raced throughout but had too much ability and still won the race. I think the 1200m will suit him perfectly and if he can handle the Victorian way of going he will be hard to beat at very good odds at $4.60.
Don’t Back Me: Aeronautical raced well first up although his second up record is pretty poor having only placed once on four tries. Has drawn wide and at $4.60 in betting im happy to pass.
Big Danger: Steps In Time is weighted and drawn to run a big race first up. She has a very good first up record and she has found a very winnable race by her standards. She had a good Winter carnival and is likely to have a few good wins in her over the Spring.
Roughie: Reflectance wasn’t beaten by too much last start and her second up record is much better. She showed plenty of ability early on in her career and i think she could be a blowout in this race.

$500 Sessions Free Bet

Race Ten: Blazer Stakes 1410m Form Guide

Back Me: Peron was my best bet of the day at Caulfield on Sunday in the Rupert Clarke Stakes in which she was scratched. She finds a much easier race here and i think she will be winning and winning well so take the $3.20 on offer as soon as you can before she shortens.
Don’t Back Me: Catkins won by a narrow margin last start but this is a much tougher field and she is yet to win at the distance from two tries so against some very good horses ill be leaving her out at the odds.
Big Danger: Flying Snitzel put in by far her best career run at Flemington were she beat Norzita. If she can match that run here she will be right in the finish again and she must be kept safe.
Roughie: A Time For Julia was caught wide throughout at Caulfield last start so you can put a line through that run, the start before that she was unlucky at Flemington so i think with some luck she can be a massive chance here at double figure odds.

$500 Peron Free Bet

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Best Bet: Peron

Next Best: Puissance De Lune

Best Roughie: Tanby