5/5/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Lord Mayors Cup day

2 Roosevelt (Bet Now: $1.75) should be winning. James Cummings trains this colt, who looks well above average after debuting with a win at the Warwick Farm midweeks when doing plenty wrong but proving far too good for his rivals. Was due to run in the Pago Pago but bypassed, trialled up beautifully a couple of weeks back. Very keen.

6 River Bird (Bet Now: $10.00) is a daughter of Epaulette that resumes for Jason Coyle. This well bred filly had two runs in the Summer to kick off her career, debuting with a fourth to Estijaab before a third to Fiesta in the Widden. That’s red hot 2YO form, so that should measure up here, and her Canterbury trial was quite pleasing.

3 Miss Invincible (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Bjorn Baker trained filly who showed good promise in her first two runs to kick off her career in the Summer before being tipped out. Confidently backed to win the Wellington Boot first up and got the job done nicely, albeit the margin was narrow. Looks to have upside and form around her reads well.

Just leaning the way of 2 Regimen (Bet Now: $3.90). Her form earlier in the prep in Melbourne was excellent but in recent times it has just fallen away a touch, the latest run resulting in a last behind Reilmartini but that race had far more depth than what she faces here. Freshened up, back to Sydney, inside gate, she’ll do me.

3 Star Sensation (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Star Witness filly resuming for the in form Mark Newnham team. This girl hasn’t raced since the Spring/Summer where she did a really good job for the stable in some quality three year old races. Been given a good break and has trialled well a couple of times leading up to her return.

4 Goldfinch (Bet Now: $12.00) probably has the early toe to lead this field up but the last 100m will test. Ran over the 1000m at Muswellbrook last time out where she showed dazzling early toe to lead up an open class field and though paddling late, she clung on. If the track is suiting those on speed, that’s her best chance of winning.

Happy to give 5 Augustus (Bet Now: $7.50) another look. Liked his win against the older horses two back at Warwick Farm before going to the Tulloch where he was outclassed behind Levendi, who franked the form of course by winning the Derby. Trial last week at Canterbury was quite good and on his best form, he should take some beating.

3 Primitivo (Bet Now: $3.70) is still a maiden for John Thompson but he’s much better than that. No luck in the Tulloch behind Levendi before going to the Frank Packer Plate where he was asked to do too much from the back behind Higher Ground. I think the drop in depth is ideal, as is back to 1800m. Definite threat.

4 Almighty Crown (Bet Now: $6.00) started bolters odds when winning here at the midweeks before going to Kensington where he wasn’t as dynamic but still ran well i thought behind Bezel, who was good last Saturday at Hawkesbury, so the form reads well enough and I think third up at 1800m is an ideal recipe.

Tough race for the mares but I just went the way of 7 Zonk (Bet Now: $2.70), who resumes for Les Bridge. I think if you want to make money on her, it’ll come during the early part of the preparation because she tends to fade away deeper into a prep. Two trials leading in have been great and she does have a very good fresh record.

Very wary of 8 Epidemic (Bet Now: $4.00), who is first up for James Cummings. This girl had a pretty good Spring/Summer prep, which ended with a close up placing in the Gosford Guineas behind Bella Martini in a race which looked t have good depth to it. Just the one soft 800m trial win leading up, which is always a no no for me, but the quality is there.

3 Miss Ballantine (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Chris Waller trained daughter of Redoute’s Choice that resumes. Her Summer prep ended on a high when getting a lovely ride from Tim Clark to win at he Warwick Farm midweeks despite starting long odds. Like horses that go out for a spell on a high and her recent trial was very good to the eye.

I think 10 Mia’s Got Class (Bet Now: $5.00) can get the job done here. This daughter of Rothesay ran over the 1350m at Ipswich a couple of Wednesdays back and worked home strongly from the back to run second to stablemate Cascata Rossa. I think back to a fast run 1500m will suit her ideally and she handles all conditions.

13 Valree (Bet Now: $4.20) has to be included. Rod Northam has this Ad Valorem mare going really well at the moment. Peach ride from RT got her home two back at Tamworth before going to Newcastle where she bombed the start and her fate was sealed then but she somehow managed to get within two lengths of them in a remarkable effort. Clean jump and she’s right in this.

5 Central Witness (Bet Now: $8.50) deserves a crack in a Highway. Danielle Campbell has this gelding absolutely flying at the moment. Defied a betting drift to bolt up at Coffs Harbour before going to Grafton where he took on a strong field on a firm surface and he did the job impressively. Better with give in the track, but if he doesn’t get that here, I still think he’s a live chance.

Have to stick with my girl 7 Nettoyer (Bet Now: $2.70). It’s been one of the best preps you’ll see from a horse without winning when you go through her runs. She’s flying but just hasn’t had the breaks go her way in order to win. Produced great late splits last time out in the JRA Plate but the bludger himself Tally decided to turn up and put in his best showing. 2000m, Rosehill, hopefully that little bit of moisture in the track, she’ll do me.

2 Ecuador (Bet Now: $3.00) is on the seven day back up for the Waterhouse/Bott team after running in the Hawkesbury Cup last Saturday where I thought Hippo gave the horse every chance in front, controlling things beautifully but at eight years of age, he isn’t a sit/sprint type and that played into the hands of Kingsguard. Up to 2000m, he can roll and try to break their hearts.

3 Maurus (Bet Now: $14.00) needs some sort of give in the track so the weather will determine how well he goes. Found the track far too firm last time out in the JRA Plate behind Tally so i think he can be forgiven for that. Run prior behind Arbeitsam was a beauty and he loves racing at Rosehill so I’m giving him another chance, but he will need the track to not be bone dry.

7 Serene Miss (Bet Now: $1.95) has to go on top. There were doubts about her at a strong 1400m leading into the Provincial Championship Final but she handled it beautifully and won like a star, doing it with a touch of arrogance on the line. Back to 1350m no issue…the depth rise is a concern but I think she has the quality to overcome it.

4 Special Missile (Bet Now: $5.00) had trialled like a bomb leading in to this campaign, but to my eye has been a touch disappointing in three runs. In saying that, they have been stronger races than what he faces here and he maps super, plus gets McDougall back aboard. Loves Rosehill and I think he’s capable of bouncing back hard.

9 Peacock (Bet Now: $9.00) gave them a galloping lesson when bolting up to win here two back at this track/distance, beating home a couple of subsequent winners, before going to the Warwick Farm midweeks where he beat all bar Veladero. One thing I’ll say about that Warwick Farm run, he was carrying condition, so he’ll improve off that.

9 Awoke (Bet Now: $6.00) on top for me. Chris Waller trains this mare, who promised so much early on in her career but has failed to reach those lofty heights and expectations. In saying that, thought her resumption a couple of Wednesdays back at Kensington was full of merit, closing off with purpose late to run fifth to Thaad. Up to 1500m on her home track looks ideal and does have a very good second up record.

7 Bastia (Bet Now: $4.80) can improve big time back in grade. Comes through the Provincial Championship Final where he found the class and depth a bit rich in the end when down the track behind stablemate Serene Miss. Has run well at Rosehill before and will welcome the drop in depth and class. Can bounce back hard here for sure.

8 Solo Mission (Bet Now: $11.00) is an interesting runner. Former UK galloper making his Australian debut for Chris Waller. His best form will come once he gets to 2400m+, but he has shown enough in jump outs to suggest that the stable has put speed into his legs. Enough speed to run well first up at 1500m? Time will tell.

I’m the number one ticket holder for her fan club and I’m very keen to see how 13 I Am Serious (Bet Now: $4.00) returns to racing. Teased in her first two runs for Chris Waller last prep in the first campaign for the stable but she won her last two impressively, most notably the latter at Randwick when beating a Group l performed mare in Just Dreaming. The trial at Canterbury was enormous to the eye, and she has shown in the past she’s got the brilliance to win over these shorter trips despite being better suited over further.

Back to 1200m off a little freshen up should see 6 Bon Amis (Bet Now: $2.20) prove hard to beat. He ran in the Provincial Championship Final at Randwick last time out where he was three and four wide no cover for the entire yet kept finding and was very game in defeat behind Serene Miss. Draws much better and loves Rosehill.

7 Mana (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Joe Pride trained gelding who has been given a little freshen up since running a close up fourth to Bolero King at the Warwick Farm midweeks, beaten under a length. That horse went on to be Stakes placed so that form reads very well. This horse does excel with give in the track so the fine weather could be a slight concern.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Nettoyer

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Roosevelt

VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Awoke

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Two: 4, 6, 7, 9

Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 8, 9

Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 9, 13

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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