The Grand Finals of Australian racing, The Championships, have arrived at Randwick (eventually), and the first day promises to be an absolute ripper with four Group l races, highlighted by the $3 Million Star Doncaster Mile (1600m), along with the $2.5 Million T J Smith Stakes (1200m), where Chautauqua, Terravista and Lankan Rupee renew their rivalry. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. The last time the rail was true was on Valentines Day and the rail was a complete no go zone. it’s been nearly two months since that ground has been used, and with the heavy track, it may be best to avoid that ground, but we should get an idea before the majors.
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Race One (12:10pm) : Widden Kindergarten Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Might be the first race, but the best bet on the card IMO is here in the shape of Sooboog (Best Odds: $2.60). He has only had the one career outing and that was back in the Spring when second to Vancouver in the Breeders Plate. We know what Vancouver has done since, but this bloke has pretty slipped under the radar. He has looked outstanding in two recent barrier trials, looks a rising star and I am supremely confident he can get the job done here.
Big Danger: Furnaces (Best Odds: $3.20) ran a brave sixth in the Slipper to Vancouver after getting a suck run just off the speed. He just couldn’t quite match it with the better ones and tired late. Looks beautifully placed here at set weights, and provided he has come through the Slipper well, he is a definite contender.
Roughie: Tempt Me Not (Best Odds: $11.00) hasn’t been one of mine, but Team Cummings sent her to the provincials last week at Newcastle in a 900m maiden and she absolutely caned them, winning by six under hands and heels. Her form earlier on in the Autumn suggested she could be competitive at this level, and that she has won a race, her confidence is up and she can run a cheeky race.
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Race Two (12:45pm) : Daily Telegraph Carbine Club Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: There was plenty to like about the win of Hi World (Best Odds: $9.00) at Warwick Farm last time out, slogging it out best in the mud over this distance to win impressively. He ran a beauty prior to that at Flemington in a strong race, and he does have upside, plus he’ll handle the give in the ground, so with the scratchings of Sweynesse and Kermadec, he’ll take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Washington Heights (Best Odds: $12.00) is one of the better maiden gallopers in Australia. He had no luck at all last time out in the Sebring (1200m) when sixth to Peeping after copping a bad check halfway home. Jumping to the mile from 1200m, and on a testing heavy track…that’s the problem, but he has the brilliance, perhaps to beat these.
home. Jumping to the mile from 1200m, and on a testing heavy track…that’s the problem, but he has the brilliance, perhaps to beat these.
Roughie: Sworn To Silence (Best Odds: $17.00) will appreciate the drop back in class after racing against the best of the best so far this Autumn, including a game fourth in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m). Bred to handle the wet and in form rider Zac Purton jumps on.
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Race Three (1:20pm) : Schweppes Chairman’s Handicap 2600m: Form Guide
Back Me: This race just looks set up so beautifully for Grand Marshal (Best Odds: $4.20). He has taken his time getting fit this Autumn, but there was plenty to like about his effort in the Manion Cup (2400m) when fourth to Permit, making up good ground late. Gets on the limit weight, Moreira on, drawn well, loves the mud…keen.
Big Danger: Disclaimer (Best Odds: $4.40) is on the quick back up after racing last weekend in the Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m) when making ground late to run fifth to Pornichet. Go back to the Spring, and when he was at this distance range, he won the Newcastle Cup and ran fourth in a high quality Metropolitan. Gets to his ideal distance range now, and has give in the ground.
Roughie: It wouldn’t be a staying race in Sydney without old Phrases (Best Odds: $11.00), and the old bugger is racing as well as ever. Looked as though he was going to win the Manion Cup but just found Permit too strong on the day. He loves give in the ground and he loves a dog fight, and that is exactly what this race will be.
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Race Four (1:55pm) : Country Championship Final 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tarangower (Best Odds: $4.50) for me in the Final. He resumed in January here and was terrible behind Timeless Prince, so Paul Messara sent him for a break, trialled well at Muswellbrook and savaged the line to run second to Voodoo Lad in the Tamworth heat. He does have an excellent record at the track and a fast run 1400m looks right up his alley.
Big Danger: Voodoo Lad (Best Odds: $4.60) had become a touch frustrating with punters in recent times, but come the Tamworth heat of this series, the Rod Northam trained gelding lapped up the soft track and sprinted clear to secure a start in this race. He has been kept up to the mark with a lovely trial win on his home track at Scone, and this bloke was one of the most impressive heat winners. Hard to beat.
Roughie: One at value to include could be the Coffs Harbour runner Kareem’s Edge (Best Odds: $81.00). He worked home very strongly to run third in the Grafton heat behind Redwolf, beaten just over half a length. He did trial well prior to that, so I have no doubt he was wound up there and he ran accordingly. His best form is over a mile and slightly further, so a fast run race here will really suit, and for mine, $51 seems crazy overs.
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Race Five (2:30pm) : Dilmah Tea P J Bell Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Cracking race for the fillies, but just completely lost as to who to go with. I’ve landed on Peeping (Best Odds: $3.90). She showed tremendous courage to win The Sebring (1200m) last time out at Rosehill given she looked as though she was going to be headed with about 200m to go, but Sam Clipperton got the best out of her and she kicked hard to win and win well. Won a smart maiden on debut on a heavy track, so the ground won’t be an issue, she’s trained on the track and is rock hard fit compared to most of her rivals, and that will be a definite advantage.
Big Danger: Pittsburgh Flyer (Best Odds: $5.00) was given an absolute peach by Moreira to win last time out down the Flemington straight, beating home Earthquake, who was unlucky in the William Reid last Friday night. The Magic Man sticks, drawn to get nice cover and the stable is in Group l winning form.
Roughie: I give the Queensland filly Miss Cover Girl (Best Odds: $14.00) a sneaky chance. She produced a booming finish to win first up at Doomben before going to the Gold Coast and getting too far back, running fifth. She has a brilliant final sectional on her and is a winner on soft ground.
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Race Six (3:10pm) : Inglis Sires 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Taking on Pride Of Dubai given how poorly he trialled, and I’ll go with unlucky runner from the Slipper, Ready For Victory (Best Odds: $5.00). He wouldn’t have won, but he definitely should have run second had he not got completely lost around Rosehill, veering towards the outside fence and losing plenty of momentum and ending up running fourth. I think already this far out, he’ll go close to winning the Caulfield Guineas, but here, with the big track and rise to 1400m, he should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $16.00) ran a cracker in the Slipper when eighth, beaten just over two lengths. He has steadily gotten better with each outing, and he ran so well behind Vancouver, especially from the wide gate. Rod Northam is a smart trainer and he wouldn’t be running the horse if he didn’t think the horse was right. 1400m looks ideal, as does the return to Randwick.
Roughie: There is always one horse, or a couple actually, that run well in the Sires and don’t have Slipper form, and the best of those appears to be the Team Hawkes Rageese (Best Odds: $17.00), who really caught the eye in his first run back from a spell, flashing home from well back to run second to Tarquin in the Pago Pago Stakes (1200m). Looked really impressive in a Rosehill trial on Monday, looking to have taken good improvement from the Pago Pago. Has a stack of upside and will be strong at the end of 1400m.
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Race Seven (3:50pm) : BMW Australian Derby 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a cracking Derby. I’m going to stick fat with Ruling Dynasty (Best Odds: $16.00). His run in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) last week was enormous. He just got too far back from the wide gate, and they did crawl in front (First 1400m in 1.28.08), so for him to wind up and finish as close as he did was outstanding. Strongly run 2400m on his home track looks perfect, and one thing we do know about this horse is that he will be very strong at the end of the distance.
Big Danger: I jumped off Volkstok’n’barrell (Best Odds: $4.80) in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) because I was keen on Sweynesse, but the kiwi showed how good he was, showing tremendous courage late to nail Preferment close to home. Those two are clearly the best pair in this race, but out of the two, I think the kiwi has more brilliance, and from all reports, he has thrived since the Guineas. Recent history does suggest that kiwi visitors do struggle in the Derby after running in the Guineas given they’ve had a long prep back home for their Derby, but this bloke is very special, plus he looked very sharp in trackwork on Tuesday morning.
Roughie: I honestly don’t know what to put in as a roughie, because IMO it looks a race in three between Ruling Dynasty, Volkstok’n’barrell and Preferment (Best Odds: $3.30). I’ll put Preferment in here, but he isn’t a roughie, he is the third best horse in this race. He’s ticking over beautifully for the Derby and will relish the big track and 2400m.
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Race Eight (4:30pm) : Darley T J Smith Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Sticking fat with Chautauqua (Best Odds: $3.50). He was a touch unlucky in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m), because one moment he was hard on the back of Brazen Beau, and the next minute he was lengths off and getting held up. He wouldn’t have beaten Brazen Beau, but he would have finished. He gets away from Flemington which is a query, but as a three year old, he was explosive in several runs, most notably the Hawkesbury Guineas. He’s a star and he’ll take a power of beating here.
Big Danger: Terravista (Best Odds: $3.00) resumed in the Newmarket and was solid without being spectacular when third to Brazen Beau, beaten over three lengths. His two trials leading up to that were just okay IMO, and after the Newmarket run, I have absolutely no doubt that Joe Pride will have this horse 100% primed for this, and he has lethal stats second up, at the track and at the distance.
Roughie: Rain Affair(Best Odds: $17.00) ran an encouraging fourth to Generalife in the Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill on a bone dry track. He was beaten off about 300m from home, but his last 75m was pretty good. He is the best wet tracker in this race by a mile, he should lead, and with Williams sticking, he’ll give a bold sight at odds.
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Race Nine (5:10pm) : Star Doncaster Mile 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Once upon a time, the golden rule with the Doncaster is that you need a 2000m horse to win the race unless there is a standout. That rule really hasn’t applied in recent years, but there looks to be great depth in the 2015 edition, so I think that rule will apply, and on that basis, I’m going with Pornichet (Best Odds: $8.00). He was given an absolute peach by Shinn to win the Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m) last week at Rosehill, sitting off the speed before peeling out and exploding late to win with ridiculous ease. He’ll relish the Randwick mile, he’s in the right stable and should be just about ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: Royal Descent (Best Odds: $8.00) looked in need of the run first up in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) here behind Cosmic Endeavour before going to the George Ryder Stakes (1500m) and working home strongly near the inside. She was so close to winning the Doncaster last year but she had a torrid run out wide and was grabbed by stablemate Sacred Falls late. Not going as well as she was last year, but she gets a wet track, and her record at Randwick is fantastic.
Roughie: The likelihood of a wet track does bring Sacred Falls (Best Odds: $17.00) into the mix as an outside winning chance. His first up run in the Canterbury behind Cosmic Endeavour was good, but he just found the track too firm in the George Ryder. He’ll go down as one of the greats if he was to win here, and as I said, the wet track and the Randwick mile give him a chance, as does the case with Rudy, who’ll run much better with give in the ground.
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Race Ten (5:50pm) : TAB Adrian Knox Stakes 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Zarzali (Best Odds: $5.50). One thing about these young stayers is that it doesn’t matter what they beat. If they stay, they stay, and this girl certainly does that. She brained them last time out on a heavy track at Kembla Grange over 2400m, so no doubt this’ll be used as a tune up for next week, but Williams booked is a good lead and she is proven at the distance range.
Big Danger: Gust Of Wind (Best Odds: $17.00) is trained on the track by John Sargent and the daughter of Darci Brahma has looked very impressive in two wins from as many runs this time in, starting with a maiden win at Scone followed by a triumph at Hawkesbury. Gives the impression she’ll handle the 2000m and Zac Purton is booked.
Roughie: Pat Carey knows a thing or two about stayers, in particular young ones, and he has a handy one in Choix De Maia (Best Odds: $34.00), who worked home okay last Friday night in the Alexandra Stakes (1600m) behind Fontein Ruby, who’d start odds on if she ran here. She’ll get back and work home well late.
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BEST BET: Race One Number 3 Sooboog
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Grand Marshal
VALUE: Race Seven Number 8 Ruling Dynasty
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 10, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19
Leg Four: 2, 3, 8, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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