New Years Eve racing in Melbourne will be staged at Moonee Valley for a strong eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (16:40) : 1PRINT Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Kid Flash (Bet Now: $5.00) is a well bred colt that had a bit of hype about him prior to debuting at Geelong where he was backed late in betting and despite being placed under pressure on the turn, he responded quite well and clung on to win in what will more than likely turn out to be a handy form reference. Stable is flying with their youngsters and he looks a good type.
Big Danger: 3 Prevailing Winds (Bet Now: $8.00) is a well bred colt that debuts for the Darren Weir yard. This son of Exceed And Excel, like most Weir runners, haven’t trialled publicly but the whispers are pretty strong in regards to this colt and he could have easily found a maiden in the country but instead runs in town first up.
Long Shot: 5 Tapestry Red (Bet Now: $8.50) is a gelding that debuts here for the Robert Smerdon yard. No public trials to report, but his jump outs, to my eye, have been quite sharp and certainly good enough to suggest he can run well fresh here. Market will be the best guide, especially when it comes to this stable.
Race Two (17:20) : Get Wines Direct Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Crystal Fountain (Bet Now: $7.50) finished off strongly to win on debut at Werribee before going to Geelong where she looked to do plenty wrong outside the speed and was there to be beaten in the straight but she kept finding under pressure to the job done narrowly but impressively. Looks above average and I am confident she can measure up here.
Big Danger: 14 Witches (Bet Now: $4.80) is a filly I am willing to give another chance to. She toughed it out strongly to beat a subsequent winner first up at Beaumont-Newcastle track before being sent South and racing under the lights here last time out where she should be forgiven for her failure because she just looked to really struggled around the corners. If this was away from the Valley, I’d have her clearly on top, but just the tight turns here do leave me with some slight reservations. Still, a legitimate winning chance.
Long Shot: 7 Bella Ava (Bet Now: $6.50) came with a well timed run to break the maiden tag first up at Wangaratta before racing down the straight at Flemington where she couldn’t find the A ground, plus she had no cover into the breeze when a game sixth to the above average Khaki. Looks better placed here and is capable of bouncing back hard third up.
Race Three (17:55) : Essendon Nissan Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Lady Esprit (Bet Now: $4.20) is a costly conveyance but she find a very, very winnable race here. She ran down the straight at Flemington last time out where she sat off speed and chased hard all the way but couldn’t quite finish it off when fifth to Lyuba, who went close to winning at Caulfield on Monday. Two runs at the Valley have been very good, both in much stronger races than this.
Big Danger: 7 Definia (Bet Now: $17.00) is a horse who has shown plenty of promise but injuries have sort of plagued his career. He ran over this track/distance last start and tried hard but was just no match for tearaway winner Core Beach, who led them a merry dance. Draws to get a soft trip here and should take some beating.
Long Shot: 2 It’s A Shame Billy (Bet Now: $15.00) is a handy sprinter that is first up here for the Udyta Clarke yard. He can be hard to trust and follow in terms of winning, but he is never far away from the action, as we saw last time in with a number of placings, including placings at Sandown. He goes well fresh, handles all conditions and he will be strong late with a likely genuine tempo.
Race Four (18:30) : Simpson Conctruction Handicap (78) 2040m:
Back Me: 11 Honey Cara (Bet Now: $3.00) is a mare in ripping form at the moment for the Darren Weir yard. She comes here off the back of a six length spank job of her rivals over this track/distance three weeks back where she led all the way and just absolutely bolted in. Clearly more depth here, but she does have recent winning form at the track/distance stable in form and she doesn’t necessarily have to lead in order to win.
Big Danger: 9 Get The Picture (Bet Now: $7.00) has been a very frustrating horse throughout his career because he has promised a hell of a lot but just hasn’t quite put it all together. In saying that, he has shown glimpses this time in, including a win over this track/distance two back before good efforts behind Gallic Chieftain and Flying Light. Got good stats at the track, and if they go keen in front, this is the horse you want to be on.
Long Shot: 8 Sammy The Snake (Bet Now: $28.00) is a tough on speed galloper for the Ellerton/Zahra team that comes here off the back of a gritty all the way effort over 1800m at Sandown last Wednesday where he was pretty much gifted the race to the eye and the time backs that up with the last 600m in a tick over 34. I doubt he will get it his own way here, but he doesn’t mind getting down into the trenches.
Race Five (19:05) : Melbourne Signage Concepts VOBIS Gold Carat 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Our Luca (Bet Now: $5.50) was backed late when debuting last week at Sale and the market got it absolutely spot on as he showed super early toe to lead, and comfortably. Once he was clicked up halfway down the straight, he just bounded away and won with plenty in reserve, and ran good time. Despite this being a $100,000 race in town, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t measure up.
Big Danger: 2 Gratwick (Bet Now: $3.80) toughed it out strongly at Ballarat two back when third in the Eureka Stockade before going to Pakenham where he sat just off the speed and fought on well when a game third to Snitzson, who has since failed with excuses. This is horse is finding it hard to win, but he is in the right stable and they love to target these VOBIS races.
Long Shot: The Hayes/Dabernig team had a couple nominated for this race but will just be represented by 8 Fuhryk (Bet Now: $4.20). She savaged the line late to win first up at Wodonga before coming to this track/distance where she sat wide most of the way but despite that, she charged clear late and won quite impressively. Draws a lovely gate and Cory Parish, who rode the filly first up, is back on.
Race Six (19:40) : Quest Moonee Valley Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Kievann (Bet Now: $10.00) should prove really hard to beat here. Encouraging first up third behind King’s Command at the Valley before racing down the straight at Flemington, a track he hasn’t had much success on, and was far from disgraced I thought behind impressive winner Divine Mr Artie. Looks as if he’ll get on speed favours, and really, his best form is just about better than anything engaged here.
Big Danger: 6 Armada (Bet Now: $5.50) closed off strongly when resuming on Kilmore Cup Day behind Airalign, who of course franked the form by bolting up at Sandown. Armada then ran down the straight at Flemington and finished with purpose but was no match for tearaway and impressive victor Divine Mr Artie. Been a long time since he has won, but he does strike a very winnable race here and stable is absolutely flying.
Long Shot: 7 Grand Emperor (Bet Now: $14.00) ran fourth to Boggoms at Morphettville last time out and he didn’t have the best of luck in the run despite having a bit to offer it would seem. He can be a hard horse to trust, but he finds a very winnable race and with speed on, he should be strong late.
Race Seven (20:20) : Snap Fitness Essendon Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Anatola (Bet Now: $3.40) is a mare that is bred in the purple but that hasn’t quite translated into race day. Still, her effort here fresh over 1000m was a beauty behind Scandimania and you could make a very strong case that she should have won the race had she not got cut out of the run at the top of the straight. Extra furlong looks ideal and I am keen to butter up on her again.
Big Danger: 10 Deal With It (Bet Now: $8.50) is a quality mare that resumes for the Weir camp after a pretty solid Winter prep to kick off her career, which ended with a down the track effort at Flemington but by then she was looking for the paddock. Her two Sandown wins look pretty strong form wise and she did run well fresh both times. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 15 Blithe Belle (Bet Now: $11.00) resumed down the straight at Flemington where she sat last in the run and stuck on really well though she only beat one runner home behind Lyuba. Suited up to 1200m, and with the speed likely to be on here, she’ll be the one finishing with purpose late.
Race Eight (21:00) : William Hill Handicap (90) 1000m:
Back Me: If you backed 2 General Truce (Bet Now: $18.00) last start, like I did, then talking about last start is painful. He ran down the straight at Flemington and looked to be absolutely bolting behind the speed. All he needed was a clear run, but when he tried to get that run, he got cut out and lost all momentum. Convinced he would have been in the finish had he got the run. Got a really good record at the Valley and I am keen to butter up.
Big Danger: 3 Beau Rada (Bet Now: $6.50) comes through the same race at Flemington mentioned above won by Decision Time where he found the right ground near the outside fence and finished his race off strongly late in the piece. He is another with some really good stats at the Valley and can bounce back for sure.
Long Shot: 5 It Is Written (Bet Now: $10.00) hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing at Pakenham where he had a nice sit just off the speed and stuck to the task really well I thought when third to Smart Dart, who has franked the form by running well in the Christmas Stakes at Caulfield. He has one of the better Valley stats in recent history, so he has to be included.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 General Truce
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Our Luca
VALUE: Race Six Number 1 Kievann
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7, 15
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 10, 15
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 11
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