31/10/2012 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Bendigo, Bendigo Cup day

A last ditch to squeeze into the Melbourne Cup field will be seen this Wednesday with the running of the $250,000 Listed Jayco Bendigo Cup (2400m). Last year, the event was won by Tanby but didn’t take place in the Flemington showpiece race. A cracking field has been assembled for the 2012 edition, with Lloyd Williams represented by Excluded and Practiced. The main dangers appear to be Fiumicino for Team Hawkes and the talented former European galloper Puissance De Lune.

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Race One: Schweppes Tonic Maiden Plate 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: In a handy little maiden race, I am going with Star O’Reilly. Ran in a hot maiden on debut in September of last year when not beaten far. Had a break and resumed in February at Ballarat. He sat outside the speed and was gallant in defeat when finishing second. He has had plenty of time to mature and strengthen right up. Olly is riding and he looks the way to go.
Don’t Back Me: Looks to be a three horse between the three main tips.
Big Danger: Pacarc is on his home track here and should be right in the finish after an eye-catching return here over 1000m where he sat wide with cover, took a little while to wind up, but did find the line in a blanket finish. A certain threat.
Roughie: Loose Lion looks a capable type who is on debut. Has trialled a few times in preparation and has looked solid enough. Can definitely run a forward race to kick off his career.

$500 Star O’Reilly Free Bet

Race Two: Pura Milk Maiden Plate 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Sharnee Rose. The best maiden galloper in Victoria, and probably Australia. Has run some good races against some quality horses in the past…surely she wins here. If she doesn’t win here, put the line through her and steer clear from her…forever.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat Sharnee Rose. She just wins.
Big Danger: Copper Vision ran his race in patches when resuming at Cranbourne under the lights. He was wide with no cover throughout and was seemingly gone at the 500m, but he did work home well. He has barrier one here and he should run a much improved race.
Roughie: Sovereign State made his first career start over the 1000m here and was caught wide with no cover yet stuck on very well for third. Form around that race is a tad suspect, but he is the next pick out of these.

$500 Sharnee Rose Free Bet

Race Three: Winning Edge Presentations Maiden 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Going to give Arkie The Red another go here. I thought he was a moral at Warrnambool, but he didn’t really have a clear run into the straight. I will admit he was a shade disappointing over the final furlong, but I am prepared to forgive him. Drawn well again, should get the perfect sit and should be hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Divine Moon will be near the top of the betting given he has contested good races at his past two starts. However, there were warning signs at Caulfield that he has had enough. Be careful if you like him.
Big Danger: We haven’t seen a Lloyd Williams first starter for some time, so it’s worth while keeping a close eye on Wimba. Appeared to trial well last month on a wet track at Cranbourne, but he gives the hint that he’ll be better on top of the ground.
Roughie: Evens had absolutely no luck at Warrnambool in a good maiden race. Was held up and held up and never really had a decent crack at them. A wider barrier will ensure she gets clear space and be allowed to let down fully. Could be the blowout horse.

$500 Arkie The Red Free Bet

Race Four: Myjet Charter Handicap (C1) 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Popular Acclaim is a more than capable filly who has done well recently in city races. Drops back to a weak class one here, drawn nicely and Walker is riding in mint form at present. She should get the perfect sit from the barrier and prove hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Magnus Reign has shown some promise and deserved the win first up, but he beat absolutely nothing there. Big step up here against some quality animals.
Big Danger: The 1100m might be too short, but watch out for Chalupa to charge hard late, especially if the pace is on. Got too far back at Donald but still caught the eye again. If the pace is on in front, look out for this son of Econsul.
Roughie: Certain Hope probably has the class to be in the finish here. Had some very good form in his first preparation, with form around Glenmaura and Classy Chloe, both blacktype class gallopers. Keep an eye on him.

$500 Popular Acclaim Free Bet

Race Five: State Trustees Handicap (78) 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: In a tough race, I am going with Lone Star. Led and recorded a dead heat win at Adelaide before being run off his legs in the Apache Cat on Cranbourne Cup Day. Froggy should get over from the barrier quite comfortably and be hard to beat. But there isn’t much confidenec because the race is very even on paper.
Don’t Back Me: King Cotton is the topweight and ran well first up in a strong race at Warrnambool. However, he has a dreadful second up record and is being asked to carry 61kg.
Big Danger: Muchos Respectos is an excellent fresh horse who does look well placed. Had two starts in the Summer, with a dominant win at Geelong before bleeding at Moonee Valley behind the blacktype class mare Koonoomoo. Should get the perfect sit near the speed and prove hard to hold out.
Roughie: Dad Knows Best is a horse that has the talent to win a handy race, but he either doesn’t turn up or has bad luck in the run. He wasn’t too bad at Albury last start behind Stacey Lee, who ran ok on Geelong Cup Day. If this bloke brings his best form, he can win. Throw him in exotics.

$500 Lone Star Free Bet

Race Six: Bendigo Ford Handicap (68) 1300m Form Guide

Back Me: Sticking with Consecrate. Loved his first up run at Sale before winning on Cranbourne Cup Day last start, aided by a gem of a ride from Nick Hall. He sat off a hot speed hence was asked to go earlier given the front runners put up the white flag. He was exposed earlier than what he would prefer, but he showed some grit late and held on in a narrow win. He’ll improve with more fitness now, Hall sticks with him and he does have the fitness edge on his main rivals.
Don’t Back Me: I was disappointed with Scottish Queen and her first up run at Mornington behind Big Buddie. Had three wide cover, but when Nolen peeled her out, she was just flat. Is fitter and drawn much better, but she needs to improve.
Big Danger: Everything says that Family Portrait will be right in the finish. Showed plenty of promise in Adelaide before being transferred to Darren Weir. Made her debut in Victoria at Echuca where she sat last before winding up hard late for second behind Angelic Light, who was ultra impressive at Moonee Valley last Friday night. I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t finish top three.
Roughie: Mild Mannered hasn’t won for a long time, but he keeps racing well and his last start at Kyneton rang the alarm bells. He was very stiff and nearly should have just won. He’ll get back from the wide barrier and be charging late, providing they run along in front.

$500 Consecrate Free Bet

Race Seven: Yalumba Handicap (68) 2200m Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value with the Sydney stayer Zenocoin. Made his Victorian debut at Kyneton in a weakish race. Sat midfield before being flushed out very wide at the 600m and making a long sustained run. He finished third and ended up only getting beat just under two lengths. 2200m is perfect, the booking of Froggy is a positive. In a lottery event, he looks like value.
Don’t Back Me: Dubosc was game last start at Cranbourne behind Kimurasun, but he was safely held near the line. Stepping out to 2200m is a slight concern given that Cranbourne race was 2025m.
Big Danger: The danger is definitely Kimurasun. The close relation to Haradasun has promised to do some good things but has lacked maturity. However, his few runs this prep have indicated that he is on track and his win the other day at Cranbourne was very good. Distance is no issue and he looks a great chance.
Roughie: St Mark had absolutely no luck behind Kimurasun and looks the big improver here while Severn Road was very good at Warrnambool and he ran the 2200m there very strongly. He could be the roughie to surprise.

$500 Zenocoin Free Bet

Race Eight: Jayco Bendigo Cup 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: Bossy wins big races and I am tipping he’ll win this big race with Puissance De Lune. This former European ran a very strong race when resuming in the Gold Nugget at Ballarat. Then he toyed with them at Mornington before being ridden pretty poorly at Warrnambool when beaten as a $1.30 favourite. He has a wide barrier, but that won’t matter given he does sit back and charge late and that racing style suits Bossy, especially in these staying events.
Don’t Back Me: Sky Raider was gallant in defeat when finishing fourth in the Bart Cummings at Flemington, but I think he just lacks that quality to win a good race in Victoria. He’ll run well, but I doubt he’ll be winning.
Big Danger: The main threat is definitely the Lloyd Williams owned Practiced. I think he’ll be genuine Cups contenders in 12 months time, but he is in form now and is a chance of sneaking into the Melbourne Cup field with a win here. He is the new kid on the block. He was very good at Caulfield last start. It may all come up too soon for him in terms of the Cup, but he is a definite threat here.
Roughie: Zuma Roc was ok behind Practiced at Caulfield and he is a big, lanky type that needs a big track and a genuine tempo. He will get both here and he may sneak into the exotics.

$500 Puissance De Lune Free Bet

Race Nine: Centrebet Handicap 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: If he gets normal luck, then Good Value is the best bet on the program. Got too far back and charged late for second first up at Mornington before sitting deep with no cover at Cranbourne yet fought on hard for third, beaten a half length. Walker jumps on board now, should be cherry ripe in terms of fitness and he isn’t taking on much here.
Don’t Back Me: From The Vault has got a new lease on life since being transferred to Victoria, and he did beat Good Value last start…but surely he can’t do it again.
Big Danger: Prepared to forgive Forever Here for her first up failure at Warrnambool. But in saying that, she was only beaten just under four lengths by the talented sprinter British General. Drawn well again, does race well second up and prefers a bone dry track, which she may get here.
Roughie: Keep Cool ran a belter of a race when resuming in Adelaide. That was a strong race he contested so it looks as if he has come back in good order. This is certainly not beyond him.

$500 Good Value Free Bet

Race Ten: Lake View Hotel Handicap (72) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: The big improver is Impulsive Dream. She sat near last and worked home strongly without looking likely at Warrnambool over 1200m. The extra furlong looks ideal, as does the inside barrier and on her best form, she’d give this a shake. She hasn’t won for over three years, but she has contested some good races in the past and she looks value.
Don’t Back Me: Kasmaher ran some good races during the Winter, but she is first up here and probably prefers slightly longer and some give in the ground. Looks to be unders.
Big Danger: Facts and figures suggest that Spelldancer can run a much better race here. Unbeaten at the track, has won second up, has won at 1400m and McEvoy is riding in wonderful form at present. She should get the gun run from the barrier and be right in the finish.
Roughie: Queenera is a hot and cold mare. She can be talented, but she can also be terrible, so it’s hard to know which Queenera will turn up, but if she brings her best form, she can certainly be there when the whips are cracking.

$500 Impulsive Dream Free Bet