30/4/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Brierly Steeplechase day

The iconic Warrnambool Carnival kicks off this Tuesday for Brierly Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Gee I reckon 7 Maatsuyker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good each way gamble to start the Bool. Tom Dabernig trained stayer that doesn’t really have decent flat speed, so here he is over the jumps, and I reckon his trials to get ready over the jumps have been quite good to the eye, the latest being here last week when second. My theory with these jumps races recently is you need to start looking for horses who will run the trip vs flat ability. I reckon this guy will love 3200m, he can jump and handles juice in the track.

1 Alakahan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Ciaron Maher trained gelding that is the best flat horse in the race IMO and he does have the Maher polish, and we know how much he loves the Carnival. His last run was on March 8 when down the track at The Valley behind Think N Fly. His Yarra Valley jumps trial was solid enough behind a subsequent winner and has class.

6 Holster (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Yargi trained gelding that is capable with his best. He ran last Saturday at Mornington where he was first up and he didn’t fire a shot behind a good horse, Sea What I See, but he had been looking strong in jumps trials and the stable can get them ready for the jumps, so watch the market and see what it does.

I think you have to take a chance with 6 Southern France (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Declan Maher. Formerly with Matty Smith, he is now with Declan Maher with eyes towards jumping, with this as his kick off point. He’s had a couple of flat trials followed by four jumps trials, where he has seemingly got better with each trial and the stable are very good with these cast offs. Flat ability, best horse by a mile, and I reckon jumping is just sharpening him up a touch.

9 Wilewink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat for Aaron Purcell. He comes here around a month between runs since bolting up over 2700m at Stawell where he made a mess of them, sitting just off the speed before making a sustained run and he was dominant late. Gapped them in a recent trial win last week here and he looks ready to go…the price is just too short.

1 Apache Thunder (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the improve and can take this out without surprising. Rachael Cunningham trained gelding that ran over 2200m at Bairnsdale last start and was game in defeat, looming to win but just found one better in Glens Top Cat, who has won again since, so the form reads well and his jumps trials have been more than encouraging.

6 Leaderboard (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be favourite IMO and I am surprised he is not. Mark Walker trained stayer that made his jumps debut at Pakenham and ran well in defeat but was simply no match for Huntly Castle. He’ll be better for that run, he’s proven at the trip and he swims so if the track remains to have proper give in it, it’s advantage him.

5 Irish Butterfly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy horse that comes here again after racing at this track/distance in a Maiden Hurdle where I thought he had every chance but couldn’t get past Elementary. Subsequent trial was more than encouraging I thought and for mine, he gets a jockey upgrade with Willie McCarthy replacing Lee Horner.

10 Vadarchie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. Rachael Cunningham trains this guy, who ran over 2200m at Bairnsdale last time out where he got a fair way out of his ground but I really liked the way he found the line late without threatening behind Glens Top Cat. Recent trial here was strong and he will stay.

12 Dimora Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a great bet here for Lindsey Smith. This filly resumes, having not raced since her debut back in October where she debuted at this track/distance. She led and gave a strong kick but was no match late for Flying Fizz, who I feel is above average and will take beating later in the card. She smoked in a recent Terang jumpout and with the stable, she looks prepped to resume a winner during the Carnival.

15 Porrista (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has race experience on her side and fitness. Henry Dwyer trained filly that debuted at Ballarat where she was a touch tardy away but she kept finding the line and was strong in defeat when third to Spirit Of Camelot. Good improvement to come and up in trip, J Allen on, she rates highly.

14 Platinum Reggae (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an engine under the hood for Gemma Reilly and commands respect. This girl has had solid jumpout work in readiness for start one, the latest at Pakenham when near the speed and I thought she picked up nicely late between runners. Not sure she wins, but for exotics, she can be certainly entertained.

11 La Vie En (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Blue Point for Lindsey Smith that is on debut. She looked strong in a recent jumpout win at Terang down the back straight, leading throughout and was strong to the line in winning. Maps soft, looks the leader and from there, she’ll take running down.

1 Harpalee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has race experience on her side and brings strong form with her. Bumped into a potential jet in Growing Empire two back in The Valley Pearl before going to 1000m at Caulfield where she got back off the speed and kept finding the line in a really good effort behind Rich Dottie. Key threat.

5 Colour Our World (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Blue Point filly for Matty Williams that is on debut. This girl has jumped out well in readiness for start one and being trained on the track, you would assume she’s forward and ready to go for the Carnival, so watch the market and see what it does.

1 Stern Idol (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is short enough but I do think he has a bit on these. He won the Spencer Memorial at Pakenham, leading throughout and was dominant in the run to the line. He has been the best Steeple horse I feel for the last 12 months but needs a big race Warrnambool win on the CV. I think he’ll be getting that here.

7 Instigator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Aaron Purcell. I was disappointed with his effort at Ballarat last time. I was keen on his chances and I thought he had every chance in the straight to win but had to settle for a second to Mighty Oasis. He is a tough campaigner with runs on the board and will be strong late.

2 Britannicus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the defending champ and the key to him is the track. If this track does dry out and they don’t water it, then he becomes very dangerous. Super winner of this race last year, beaten a lip two years ago…he’s a marvel for Symon Wilde. Did more than enough fresh at Stawell and looks ready to rock and roll.

17 The Yachtsman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps here I feel. He got better as the race went on when winning over 2580m at Cranbourne two back before going to 2600m there and was good late without threatening behind Sky Hero. I always like horses right down in the weights on wet tracks, and this horse is right down in the weights, and he’s racing well. Trip will be no issue and this race, in the past, can throw up a rough result. He’s the speck.

7 Vivideel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done nothing wrong this time in for Team McEvoy and rates as one of the hardest to beat. He attempted to lead throughout over 2000m at Ballarat last time and gave a decent kick but just couldn’t quite see it through and felt the pinch late when third. I think with a more patient steer, he’ll be far more effective.

10 Red Patrol (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Wayne Walters. This guy was very good in defeat fresh in the Mount Gambier Cup before going to Bordertown where he got just off the speed and threatened but couldn’t quite finish the job. Hard fit, handles all conditions and trip should be fine. Knockout hope.

1 Claidheamh Mor (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best on the card IMO. Gemma Reilly trained stayer that resumes after becoming a Country Cups king last prep, winning a host of features and did win a couple in town as well. He is better suited over further, he looks prepped right up for a first up kill off strong jumpout work. Proven weight carrier, he swims…I have him marked near odds on. Keen.

2 Not Usual Glorious (Bet Now:  $SP.00) saves his best for tracks with juice in it so with that in mind, I do feel he is a big improver here. He resumed in the CS Hayes on Adelaide Cup Day and just looked in need of the run behind Meridius, plus the track was firm, so you have to be forgiving. Better set up here, he’ll run a much improved race.

5 Rolls (Bet Now:  $SP.00) placed in this race last year before going on to win the Warrnambool Cup. He ran in the Golden Mile at Bendigo when near the speed and seemingly had every chance but he stayed on and was quite sound in defeat I thought behind El Soleado. He saves his best for this track and will be strong late.

11 Flying Fizz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good filly for Matty Williams that resumes. This girl kicked off her career in the Spring, winning her opening two races before finishing second to Miraval Rose in the Twilight Glow at Caulfield. That looks really strong form for a race like this and I loved the way she went in a recent Terang jumpout. I am surprised she is not favourite.

3 Keitel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading chances. Price/Kent trained gelding that ran over 1200m on Terang Cup Day last time out where he got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose late in the piece when second to Beour Boy. He draws to get decent cover and with a hungry Nash on, he rates highly.

7 Calico Jack (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the Blinkers on and is trained on the track so there is clear intent, especially with a local owner. He resumed at Caulfield Heath and I thought he found the line really well in defeat behind Excess, finishing third, beaten 1.5L. Gets a good set up here and should map ideally from the gate. Leading chance.

I can see the market gravitate towards 12 Unlimited Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Clinton McDonald trained mare that resumes, having not raced since Oct 29 when pulling up lame at Sale behind Rey Magnerio, who would be $1.50 against these. She has looked to jog in a couple of Cranbourne jumpouts and gets J Kah fresh. if she runs up to her jumpout work, I think she’ll win.

15 Sasqualah (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Magnus for Symon Wilde that resumes. This girl is first up, with her last run coming on Oct 27 at The Valley in a strong 80 when far from disgraced in defeat behind Port Albert. I thought she moved well enough in a recent jumpout and is dangerous if the inside gate is used to advantage.

6 True Nobility (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Peter Chow trained mare that is first up. She resumes after a Spring/Summer prep, which ended with a down the track effort at Colac. She is a mare who can sprint well on the fresh side and trained on the track, you have to assume the fitness levels are up.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Claidheamh Mor

NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 12 Unlimited Magic

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 17 The Yachtsman

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 7, 10, 13, 17

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 11

Leg Four: 12

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