30/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, City Of Marion Stakes day

Racing returns to the course proper at Morphettville this Saturday where it is City Of Marion Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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2 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $5.00) is an absolute beauty for the John Hickmott stable that I like back to 2000m. He ran over 2250m last Saturday on the Parks track and did a really good job I felt given the tempo was an absolute crawl set by the eventual winner Dr Dependable. He kept grinding away and was good in defeat. Back to 2000m, hard fit, he’s a leading chance.

For the most part, I think 4 Ridgewood Drive (Bet Now: $1.70) has been really disappointing this time in, but gee finds a very winnable race to bounce back into some positive form. Ran over 2000m at Flemington a few weeks ago when back in the run and chasing hard, being far from disgraced behind Savvy Oak. This is a winnable race and with luck in running, he’s a leading chance.

3 Korodon (Bet Now: $3.80) is third pick. He is racing pretty well for the Jolly camp but hard to back with confidence off his effort in the Clare Cup on Sunday when behind the speed and when the sprint went on, he was the first horse beat, but stayed on to run third. His best chance of winning is if he leads and dominates proceedings.

6 Quietly Discreet (Bet Now: $2.60) is a well bred filly for Phillip Stokes that is on debut. This girl has had one public trial in readiness for start one, which came a couple of weeks ago at Murray Bridge when winning the trial and looking to do it quite nicely I thought. Think there is a bit of depth to this 2YO race, but she looks to have her share of ability so happy to be in her corner.

5 Strikes Again (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Zebedee colt for Ricky Moore that I think can run well here on debut. This colt trialled here on October 31 when winning the trial and did it in good style in okay time relative to the morning. Stable aren’t normally known for producing juveniles, but this guy did look pretty good so keen to see how he goes here on debut.

2 Candy Dude (Bet Now: $10.00) is a big watch here. Son of Reward For Effort having start one for Stuart Gower. He had a jumpout here last Tuesday when leading and though pushed out, responded well and looked to move nicely when beaten late, but I was impressed with the way he went, so I think watch the market late and see what it does with this guy.

5 Sunstone (Bet Now: $3.00) looks just about the good thing on the program. The McEvoy stable trains this filly, who was a few weeks between runs when racing last Thursday at Balaklava. Vorster had her in a striking position on the turn but took a little while to wind up, but the last 100-150m was the best part as she attacked the line and drew clear. Fitter, up to 1600m, hard to beat.

I think the 1600m will be okay for the Phillip Stokes trained 3 Holy Dancer (Bet Now: $4.20). She last raced over 1500m here four weeks ago when leading throughout and landing some good bets in fending off Sign Of Usurri, who went within a lip of winning a handy benchmark race at Bendigo, so the form reads well and the tick over trial was pleasing enough.

4 Cleary Adonis (Bet Now: $10.00) is still a maiden for John Hyam but I think he’s capable of measuring up here. Just found The Pugulist too goo two back on the Parks track here before going to Murray Bridge and looming to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow second. Could I back him to win a race like this? No. But I’d certainly include him in multiples.

In the corner of 8 Lady Pavli Chenko (Bet Now: $2.80) for Shane Oxlade. This filly resumed over 1000m at Murray Bridge where she got into an okay spot from a tricky gate but did a bit wrong when placed under pressure. Straightened up and found the line well in defeat when second to Ruler By Choice. Like her up to 1200m and the depth here, I don’t think, is as strong.

7 Double Blue (Bet Now: $4.00) looks a handy filly who hasn’t raced since Melbourne Cup Day over the 1050m here when back and wide, sticking on pretty gamely in defeat behind Kayseri in a maiden where I think the depth was pretty good. Like her up to 1200m and really, anything that Todd Pannell is riding at the moment can’t be dismissed.

3 It’s A Shame (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Shamus Award that was was relatively unwanted in betting when debuting at Strathalbyn but really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Streetcar Strangler, who has good form around him. Suspect It’s A Shame has plenty of upside to come. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

8 Raabeeha (Bet Now: $2.35) steps up against tough, seasoned campaigners, but is going well for the McEvoy team. Took on an average bunch of Maiden/Class One gallopers at Murray Bridge last time and did what was expected, spanking her rivals by a space and doing with something in reserve. Far from disgraced at Stakes level start prior so she’s hard to beat here.

6 Vinaceous (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a leading chance for Matt Laurie. Hops the border after winning over the mile at Hamilton last time out, sitting off a good speed before being presented clear air and under Thornton, surged the last little bit and win. If he can hold up and use gate one to advantage, he’ll give the fav a decent run for sure.

7 Hahndorf (Bet Now: $12.00) is a hard fit galloper for Ryan Balfour who was solid two back behind Wanted By All before backing up a week later over 1550m on the Parks track when in the market and running well but was held by Secret Vega in a race that was run at a very solid tempo. I think with a more conservative steer, he’s hard to beat here.

No reason why 9 Nasifa (Bet Now: $5.00) can’t continue his winning ways. She was impressive when winning here first up on Cup Day before racing over 1250m on the Parks track two weeks ago and despite being strongly challenged in the straight, she kept finding and on the line was too good. Kylie Huxtable has this mare flying and I think she can make it 3/3.

11 Seababe (Bet Now: $7.50) is a huge watch here. Daughter of Sebring that was formerly with Gary Portelli but is now with Will Clarken and we know the record that Clarken has at improving these tried horses and getting wins out of them. This girl is better suited over a bit further, but no jumpouts to find and noteworthy that Pannell jumps off Nasifa to ride this girl, so perhaps a lead there?

2 Pale Ale (Bet Now: $21.00) is a beauty for Danielle Wilson and he’ll only run well here. Was somewhat unwanted in betting first up two weeks ago over 1000m but despite that, I thought he ran a good race, tracking up nearer the inside and looming to be a threat, but he just ran out of condition the last little bit. Fitter, up in trip, he’s a knockout chance.

Happy to be in the corner of 8 Columbia (Bet Now: $4.40) for Will Clarken. This gelding hasn’t raced since October 16 at Caulfield, which was Blue Sapphire Day. It was a real on pace domination won by Usain Bowler and those behind had no chance, but liked the way this guy found the line in a race where the form has been good since. No recent jumpouts I can find, but a fast run 1200m looks a good set up.

Think you have to give 11 Miss Jane (Bet Now: $13.00) another chance. She was really well backed when resuming over 1000m here a few weeks ago when on speed, doing a bit of work to hold the front, and given she was first up, she jut felt the pinch late when second to Irish Mint. Like her up to 1200m and with that run under the belt, I think she’ll take some beating.

I doubt 3 Go The Journey (Bet Now: $15.00) beats these but for multiples, I’d be including him. He was part of a mad speed battle two weeks ago on the Parks track alongside Benz and that really put pay to his chances but I thought he stuck to the task pretty well in defeat. He lands on speed here, hopefully runs along without copping pressure, and can be tough to run down.

4 Tongsai Boss (Bet Now: $2.70) has returned in excellent order for John Hyam. Was 1600m back to 1400m when racing on the Parks track a few weeks ago and that, plus a moderate tempo, didn’t help his cause and on face value, was disappointing when third to Jentico, but I think there were excuses. Back up to the mile, he can bounce back for sure in a winnable race.

The best version of 7 Shrouded In Mist (Bet Now: $5.00) is clearly good enough to beat these, but she can be very hit and miss so bet with caution if you fancy her. She ran over 1700m at Flemington during Cup Week and worked home pretty well from the back I thought without really being a winning threat behind Sure Knee. She goes close to winning here if she runs to her best.

Up to 1600m looks a perfect step up for the John Macmillan trained 11 Stryke In Style (Bet Now: $19.00), who was three weeks between runs since racing over 1200m on the course proper here where he was back near last in the run and finished off strongly to run fourth, backing that up with an impressive win at Strathalbyn on Sunday. Hard to beat here.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Sunstone

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Tongsai Boss

LONG SHOT: One Number 2 Flow Meter

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6, 7, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 11

Leg Three: 3, 8, 9, 11, 12

Leg Four: 4

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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