3/7/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Winter Championship Series Finals day

wwOutside Carnival time, the biggest meeting at Flemington is Finals Day and the 2021 edition rolls around this Saturday, with the feature being the Winter Championship Final (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Playing a straight bat with 1 Mennea (Bet Now: $1.85 TOP ODDS) in the opener. Maher/Eustace trained juvenile that was smashed in betting on debut at Donald and despite doing work in the run out wide, he was much too good in winning. Time was much quicker than the other 1200m race on the program, he’s progressive and looks to have nice change up speed.

3 Cardinal Gem (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a progressive juvenile for Grahame Begg. Both runs this time in have come over 1200m on Synthetic tracks at Pakenham and Ballarat, the latter seeing him get his maiden win out of the way in good style. Harder here, but drawn out, so will get clear air from the outset and be strong late.

Gee there is a tail to this race. 9 Stalking (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings juvenile that was big odds when debuting at Wangaratta, but thought she closed off her race pretty well when second to Widaad. Winkers go on, gets a jockey upgrade and has plenty of room for improvement. One for multiples.

3 Seb Song (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a Warren/Krongold trained three year old that has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Good late two back at Sandown behind Sarodec before going to Cranbourne where he got a bit too far back in the run but liked the way he finished his race off. He has the talent to beat these for sure.

4 Vibrant Glider (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has to carry Jamie Mott, who isn’t exactly shooting the lights out at the moment, but he is riding a horse who is looking like he’ll be spot on for this race. Took on the older horses over 1400m at Sandown last time out and was good late when third to Scantoon in a race that rated well for that meeting. If he can use gate one to advantage, he’ll be hard to beat.

1 Rathlin (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is starting to find some positive form now he’s being trained as a 1400m/1600m horse. He tried very hard several weeks ago at Caulfield to wear down Riot And Rose but was just no match for that talented filly. Not sure I could back him to win, but one for exotics.

2 Grand Promenade (Bet Now: $1.55 TOP ODDS) has the runs on the board to be spanking this field after beating up a similar line up at this track/distance four weeks ago. He does go up 4kg on that win, but barring fresh blood in the SA visitor, it’s a similar class field to the one he spanked.

Little bit of juice in the track should suit 5 Master Chum (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). Adelaide raider who was quite good here a few weeks ago over 2000m given he was a few weeks between runs and stepping up from the mile. Loomed to win but his condition just gave out late. His best can see him run a positive race at odds.

9 Smokin’ Pierro (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) doesn’t win out of turn but is one for wider exotics. Honest stayer for Michelle Payne that is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize and that was the case when he raced here a fortnight back behind South Pacific. Doubt he wins, but can fill a first four spot.

10 Whatafox (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is racing like he will appreciate the 1600m. Ran over 1300m at Sandown last time out where like the debut, she lacked a turn of foot but stayed on and just missed out on the win when a narrow second. The mile should be fine for her and has upside to come.

2 Celestial Fury (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is proven at the track and should be okay at the mile. He was off the bit on the turn when racing over 1400m here two weeks ago but he kept finding under pressure and was strong late in getting the job done. Off that, 1600m here is fine. Just not sure how strong that race was.

6 Bon Vivant (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) should appreciate a step up in trip. James Cummings trained colt that debuted over 1400m here a fortnight back in a race shape that probably didn’t suit but thought he closed his race off pretty well. Got more upside than most and is in a leading camp.

2 Star Of Uma (Bet Now: $3.50) looks a key threat. Team McEvoy filly that had to tick the 1400m box on the Parks track four weeks ago and she ticked it off in spades. Gapped them from on speed and was strong to the line in getting the job done. Off that, I think she has to command respect here.

1 Aidensfield (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Team Hayes filly that was kept pretty safe in betting when resuming in the Creswick. Thought she had her chance but she was fresh from a decent break and just lacked the race fitness. Fitter and up to a suitable trip, she has class and that will carry her a long way.

6 Sensationalisation (Bet Now: $13.00) is back on track I feel. Far from disgraced two back in the Inglis Guineas at Rosehill behind Midland. Freshened up and ran over 1300m at Sandown when ridden cold and found the line nicely against the track pattern behind Comica. On her home track, fitter and up in trip again, I think she’ll be dangerous, especially if she can sit closer in the run.

It’s hard seeing anything other than a win for 2 Dice Roll (Bet Now: $1.95). Very progressive galloper for Nick Ryan that is unbeaten since arriving in Australia, his latest win coming over 1400m here two weeks ago where he sat off a slow speed and was able to produce the finale of a good horse to get the job done again. They’re cooking with gas when it comes to this guy. He can win this and potentially be a potential Toorak/Cantala contender.

10 Kirwan’s Lane (Bet Now: $6.00) will appreciate getting firmer footing. John O’Shea trained gelding that is a few weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Randwick. Loomed to win but on the wet track, he couldn’t dash and tired late. Does no work from the draw and on top of the ground, he can threaten.

6 Furrion (Bet Now: $23.00) is one I can entertain as a first four contender. First run for the stable came behind Dice Roll where he was specked at a big price and the move was right to an extent. He didn’t run top three, but his finale was very good for a horse best suited over further. Not sure he wins, but is one for exotics.

3 Token Spirit (Bet Now: $4.50) is an out and out stayer and he has the 2400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead. That 2400m run resulted in a win at Sandown where he was quite strong at the end of the race despite a slow tempo and a race shape against him. I think he’ll be strongest late.

4 Unique Artist (Bet Now: $4.40) has just looked a different horse since the Blinkers went on. Gave them a spanking in a maiden on the Pakenham Synthetic. Then raced over 2000m here where she had a suck run behind the speed and once she got the gap, away she went. Progressive, upside, hard to beat and the 2500m should be fine.

Not sure he wins, but for exotics, I can certainly entertain 12 Mr Pocket (Bet Now: $81.00) at big odds. Travis Doudle trained three year old that was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1800m at Murray Bridge last time out and I liked the way he finished his race off when third. Up to 2500m, he lacks a turn of foot but will stay.

3 William Thomas (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented sprinter for John Price that was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1100m here two weeks ago but despite that, liked the way he finished his race off behind The Astrologist. Fitter and up to 1200m, if he gets a decent drag into the race, he’ll be hard to hold out.

8 Hi Stranger (Bet Now: $4.50) is a beauty for Shane Fliedner. Four year old that resumed over 1100m here and worked home with real purpose late, just missing out on picking up The Astrologist. He’ll love the step up in trip and should be strong at the end of this. Leading contender.

4 Banquo (Bet Now: $5.50) has a good second up record and can be a big improver. Looked like he needed the run when he paraded prior to resuming here two weeks back and that is how it panned out when fifth to The Astrologist. He does go better second up and up to 1200m should suit.

Bit of a throw at the stumps here for me in the shape of 1 Why Choose Her (Bet Now: $23.00) for Lindsey Smith. This mare has had a couple of runs in Melbourne, first run being a close up fourth at Caulfield. Then went to Sandown where she got back and worked to the line pretty well behind Chassis against the pattern. Her form from WA is good enough to run well here at a price.

13 Lindhout (Bet Now: $3.50) is a progressive mare who I think can measure up to this level. Ran in a Heat of this Series two weeks ago here and closed off strongly from off the back, just missing out on picking up Don’ttelltheboss. Giving away hardened experience, but has upside and progression.

10 Galgani (Bet Now: $5.00) is racing really well at the moment for Nikki Burke. Tough win two back over 1300m at Sandown before going to Flemington where she was wide no cover for the trip and was the lone survivor of that speed battle when third to Don’ttelltheboss. If that hasn’t busted her, she’s in the mix.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Dice Roll

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Not Usual Glorious

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Why Choose Her

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Four: 1, 4, 10, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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