Eight races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (14:23) : Devil’s Lair Plate 1000m:
Back Me: I’ll cop the tip with 4 Wild Front (Bet Now: $9.00), who debuts here for the Damian Miller camp off the back of a couple of sharp trial efforts, both times going about his business quite nicely. Pike is booked and I am sure he was offered rides in the race, but picks this bloke. Good enough for me in the opener.
Big Danger: 2 Vital Blast (Bet Now: $4.80) had confident market support when debuting over 1100m here a fortnight back and gee he was super in defeat given he was wide no cover on speed yet fought on strongly to be only beaten narrowly. Draws better here, and he just needs normal luck to go close.
Long Shot: 10 Sophia’s Secret (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Written Tycoon filly on debut for the Dan Morton camp. She has only had the one trial to prepare fro her debut, which came at Belmont when running third, beaten just over a length, but went nicely to my eye. Draw makes it tough, but she gets Brad Parnham steering and is the form rider in WA at the moment.
Race Two (15:03) : Lavazza Handicap (78+) 1600m:
Back Me: Going with some value here in the shape of 4 Corporate Larrikin (Bet Now: $10.00). He is a free wheeler on speed who loves to set up a margin then cling on. Didn’t get away from them last Saturday and caved in to run a howler. This field isn’t as strong to my eye and he is the sole speed engaged. Think he will give a great sight at odds.
Big Danger: 2 Dezzies Dream (Bet Now: $4.00) will appreciate the drop back in grade/depth after contesting Stakes company her past three where she has run well but just hasn’t quite measured up. Has the sticky gate to overcome, but if Pike can slot her in and get cover, as well as a drag up to the turn, she’ll look the winner at some stage.
Long Shot: Though looking for further, I think 5 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $7.00) could be included in exotics. He has contested the same races at Dezzies Dream twice this time in and hasn’t been far away from her each time yet you’ll get a good price for this bloke, and he does have upside. He’ll be strong late, and if he is close enough on the turn, he’s certainly good enough.
Race Three (15:43) : Kirin Megumi Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Quilista (Bet Now: $1.80) picks herself here to my eye. Strung together several very impressive wins before dipping her toe in Stakes company three weeks back in the Raconteur where she ran a credible third to Variation. Little break between runs should do her the world of good and she is the one here.
Big Danger: 6 Detango (Bet Now: $3.60)is a progressive mare for the Brett Pope yard but she is showing really good promise. Plenty to like about her last start effort at Pinjarra where she was wide with cover but a fair way off them yet came with a lovely finale to win. Toughest test to date here, but I think she can measure up.
Long Shot: 1 Distant Memory (Bet Now: $26.00) is on the seven day turnaround after racing over 1000m here last Saturday where she had a suck run on the rail and couldn’t finish off with purpose behind Remember Berlin. That race had more depth than what she faces here, so if she was to rediscover her best, she’d be right in this.
Race Four (16:19) : Seacorp Handicap (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: Siding with 5 Sweet Ora (Bet Now: $4.00) but only just. Good mare for the Dan Morton yard who ran some ripping races last time in but hasn’t quite lived up to that this time in with two okay efforts, but nothing to jump up and down about. Takes on the older horses here, which is never easy, but she maps well and gets Pike steering.
Big Danger: 9 The River (Bet Now: $5.50) is the big watch here. He was the star two year old of last season in WA but didn’t quite measure up as a Spring 3YO. On his day, he’s a high class animal this part of the world and there were encouraging signs in a recent trial placing. Will be interested to see what the market does with him.
Long Shot: 1 Delicate Miss (Bet Now: $26.00) is a talented mare for the David Harrison camp who has been given a four week break since resuming at this track/distance where she sat on speed and just tired late behind Woolibar. Draws to get the suck run near the speed here and the claim for Fitzgerald is a big tick.
Race Five (16:54) : Tabtouch Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Going to trust my eye with 11 Top of The Class (Bet Now: $8.00). Resumes for the Lane after such an impressive debut at Bunbury on January 11 where she took a while to wind up but her last 150m was very sharp. Form out of that maiden has been strong and though the two trials haven’t been overly inspiring, I’ll gamble that she switches on raceday.
Big Danger: 1 Next Generation (Bet Now: $4.40) is a very consistent three year old for the Parnham yard who is in a rich vein of form at the moment. He has won his past two, the latest coming over 1100m here on Good Friday when charging clear after a nice sit off the speed. Looks as if he will get a similar run and gets the claim for Mitchell.
Long Shot: 8 My Grace (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented filly but she is hard to trust at times. In saying that, she should be forgiven for her failure here on Good Friday behind Just Act Natural given she pulled up lame, which is never ideal. The big key here is that Pike rides her, so she is capable of a sharp bounce back.
Race Six (17:30) : Grant Thornton Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Star Glitter (Bet Now: $3.80) on top for me in a really tricky race. He ran over this track/distance on Good Friday and made up nice ground late without threatening when fourth to Just Act Natural. Keep in mind he was scratched from a weaker race on Wednesday to be saved for this, so stable confidence perhaps.
Big Danger: 1 Travellin’ (Bet Now: $3.80) was a big flop first up behind Ripper Rio but was much better in that Just Act Natural race mentioned above. Had the suck run behind the leader/winner and did get out in time. Winner was just too sharp. Looks to get a similar run here and the 3kg claim for Tayla Stone helps big time.
Long Shot: 11 Airlie Sun (Bet Now: $7.50) was 39 days between runs when racing at Bunbury last time out where Pike gave the horse a peach, sitting it 1/1 throughout and presenting at the right time but the horse just lacked the match fitness to win. Has that now and Pike remains on which is a good lead for mine.
Race Seven (18:10) : Amelia Park Lamb Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: Siding with 7 Key To Fame (Bet Now: $9.00). On the back up for Simon Miler after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where he had confident market support late and though tiring late, he clung on for a strong and determined win. Maps well here and gets weight relief, so I think he is the each way play.
Big Danger: 3 Majinika (Bet Now: $6.00) is a beauty for the Durrant/Miller camp. Ran over 1200m here three weeks back where he copped heat on speed and for several moments looked gone but he just kept finding and dug deep to win. Form out of the race has been good and he draws to get the perfect run.
Long Shot: 2 Military Ruler (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented miler that resumes for the Mcauliffe camp. Ran some really good races in Stakes company and was far from disgraced. Didn’t do a great deal in a recent Lark Hill trial, but he has class/quality on these and if they go quick in front, he’ll be the one charging late.
Race Eight (18:50) : Subiaco Football Club Handicap (1MW) 2200m:
Back Me: 13 Impresszar (Bet Now: $61.00) is the value bet on the program for mine. Might only come off a York maiden win on Easter Monday but there was a bit to like about the win. Got going 800m out and dashed to the lead and from there she just kept running. Doesn’t have to do that here I think, she draws well and Autier sticks which is a good lead.
Big Danger: 8 At The Ready (Bet Now: $3.70) has been given a little break since the WA Derby where he ran a credible race but just didn’t quite measure up when sixth to Gatting. This is a big drop in grade, but he has been up for a long time, so how much upside left is the query, but he has class/quality and Pike steers.
Long Shot: 6 Proxy (Bet Now: $8.00) is getting close to his D-Day this prep. He has had four runs back from a break so he should be ready to show his best. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and battled away okay without really threatening when fifth to Couleur Bizarre. Gets a 2kg weight swing on that horse and has more upside.
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BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Quilista
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Wild Front
VALUE: Race Eight Number 13 Impresszar
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg Four: 3, 6, 8, 13
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