Racing returns to Rosehill this Saturday for their traditional Derby Day program and it shapes up to be a very good meeting. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:05) : Lidoran Group Pierro Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Darhad (Bet Now: $3.40) was hard in the market when debuting at Randwick a fortnight back and for the most part, he was the better horse in the event but inexperience probably beat him in the end when finishing a lip away from beating Madame Moustache. He now has the run under the belt and this race doesn’t look as strong. Clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 9 Epidemic (Bet Now: $3.70) is a regally bred filly for Godolphin that debuts here off the back of a nice trial at Wyong against the older horses, running second to Prince Dylan. Time was quick and they home sharply, so I’ll respect that nd though drawn widest, I think she has to be respected.
Long Shot: 7 Ibanez (Bet Now: $6.00) ran third at Randwick behind Madame Moustache and her effort was tidy after sitting back off the speed and chasing hard all the way and was actually coming hard near the line. Has upside, stable is in form and she strikes a very winnable race.
Race Two (12:40) : West Tradies CFMEU Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Ozark (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented Colt for Godolphin that is two from two. He won well on debut at Kembla, beating home a subsequent winner. He then went to Gosford and led most of the way, beating a pretty handy line up. Comes to town as a likely prospect and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Star Of Monsoon (Bet Now: $7.00) has to carry the grandstand but has earned it after a closing second to Spright in the Brian Crowley. That form probably should see him win this. The problem is that he is a maiden and a money muncher.
Long Shot: 6 Eckstein (Bet Now: $7.50) ran in a Randwick Highway last time out where she was hard in the market and aided by a lovely on speed steer from Heather Poland, she kicked hard in the straight to get a narrow but impressive win. Should only have upside and maps quite well. Hard to beat.
Race Three (13:20) : AMWU Handicap (77) 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Moher (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the bet of the day IMO. Ran over 1400m at Randwick two weeks back where he sat outside a brutal speed and really had every right to drop out but he took care of the leader and gave a kick before being bloused late by the in form Invinzabeel. He saves his best for the Rosehill 1500m, he maps well, hard fit now and the claim for Nick Heywood…the one to beat.
Big Danger: 6 Legendary Luke (Bet Now: $12.00) comes back to 1500m after racing at the Doomben mile last start where he bolted to the front and looked the winner, but he just couldn’t quite run the trip out and had to settle for third to Brazen Moss. If he has a bunny to chase, he will be more effective.
Long Shot: 9 Bank On Henry (Bet Now: $16.00) resumed in the Tony Campbell Cup at Canberra and got a long way back in the run before coming wide and finishing off strongly to run second to Hermosa Beach, who ran well without much luck last week at Randwick, so the form reads okay, he has upside and stable don’t bring them to town for nothing.
Race Four (14:00) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1300m:
Back Me: 8 Artistic Beauty (Bet Now: $13.00) has to be closely watched here from a market perspective. This mare is a Cameron Crockett trained daughter of Excellent Art that is first up. She hasn’t raced since finishing down the track in a Highway here over 1500m in late May. Best form is over further, but gee I liked her trial behind Stakes winner Alart at Muswellbrook, closing off hard under minimal riding. Tipping she is wound up to run a beauty fresh.
Big Danger: Matty Dunn has had great success with Highway events and he comes back again courtesy of 1 Delightful Feeling (Bet Now: $6.00), who comes here off the back of a strong midweek win at Doomben on October 12. That was the identical scenario Hanwritten had before winning a Highway at Randwick. Has to be rated as a massive threat.
Long Shot: There has been alot to like about the way 9 Dramatico (Bet Now: $14.00) has gone about her business this time in, winning two from two at the Nowra 1200m and on both times she has shown an electric turn of foot when presented. This is a tough test, but given the vein of form she is in, she has to be respected despite the tricky gate.
Race Five (14:45) : CFMEU Mining Handicap (83) 1350m:
Back Me: Gee if you backed 2 Magicus (Bet Now: $7.00) a fortnight back at Randwick, it was just awful to watch. Looked to have plenty to offer but unfortunately for Jason Collett, he just couldn’t get into the clear and pretty much went to the line under a hold. The horse has had a few of those runs throughout this prep, which is a real worry, but with a clear and bringing his best form, he’ll take a power of beating, and from gate nine, he will get clear running.
Big Danger: 4 Royal Tudor (Bet Now: $3.00) had good market support when getting the job done two back at Warwick Farm before going to the Invinzabeel race at Randwick where he had the nice sit just off the speed and he tried hard down the straight when running third. I think with a more cold ride, he can be more effective, and he does get weight relief from that outing.
Long Shot: 1 Duca Valentinois (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented Godolphin galloper that resumes here. He last raced mid Winter at Canterbury over 1550m when sitting back in the run and producing a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. Been quite impressed by what I’ve seen at the trials and I am tipping him to run a very good race.
Race Six (15:25) : Vincents Country Classic 2000m:
Back Me: 15 Lonely Oprhan (Bet Now: $7.00) comes through the Port Macquarie Cup (2000m) where she got a long way back in the run in what was a fast run race and she simply had too much to do but she ended up making solid ground late behind Sofin. Go back to the Autumn and she was considered good enough to contest the Vinery Stud (2000m) here behind Single Gaze. That reads so well for a race like this.
Big Danger: 16 Mysticism (Bet Now: $4.80) resumed in a Highway at Randwick over the mile and after receiving the sweet trip off the pace, once she got the split in the straight, it looked game over but she just lacked a turn of foot and couldn’t finish it off when a close up fourth to Distinctive Look. Only time she was at 2000m she was ridden upside down, so I think with a cold ride here, she will run it no trouble and has the class factor. Gate 18 is the worry but I’ll leave that to Avdulla.
Long Shot: 7 New Divide (Bet Now: $26.00) closed off well two back at Port Macquarie before backing up four days later at Taree where he had really good market support and it was justified with a strong finishing burst late to get the victory. He has run well in Highways before, so he isn’t new to the city and I think at 2000m, he’ll be well placed.
Race Seven (16:10) : Blacktown Workers Handicap (93) 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Iggi Pop (Bet Now: $9.00) on top for me in a race where the confidence levels aren’t high. He resumed over the Randwick mile two weeks ago and surprised a few with how well he went behind Fabrizio, sitting off speed that day before railing through and finishing off well, though beaten well and truly by the leader/winner. Second up at 1800m looks ideal and this isn’t a strong race.
Big Danger: 7 Tower Of Song (Bet Now: $3.20) had solid market support when racing over the Randwick mile a fortnight back and it was Avdulla who lifted the gelding home. He was back near last on the turn before presenting wide and though taking time to wind up, he did and got there in the end. That leaves me thinking that 1800m will be no issue, he’s hard fit, in good form and in the right stable.
Long Shot: 9 New Tipperary (Bet Now: $3.70) really had no right to win last time out over the Warwick Farm mile but it was some brilliance from Avdulla that got the horse home, ducking and weaving nearer the inside before really attacking the line and getting the win in the last couple of strides. Gets really good weight relief from that outing and he did run well at 2000m last time in, so 1800m is no issue.
Race Eight (16:55) : Bradford Soundscreen Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: If you backed 10 Dixie Chick (Bet Now: $5.50) at Randwick three weeks back, it was a nightmare to watch in the straight. She looked to have plenty to offer but unfortunately for her supporters she just had no clear run at any stage. She just needs normal luck to go close to knocking this field off.
Big Danger: 4 Rillito (Bet Now: $3.80) was a dominant first up winner at Canterbury before racing there under the lights last Friday night where on the turn it looked to be no betting, but that turn of she had wasn’t there and she just plugged on for fourth. If you are forgiving, I am sure you could butter up again because she is well above average.
Long Shot: 7 Leami Astray (Bet Now: $8.50) ran over this distance at Randwick three weeks ago where she sat on speed and gave a really good sight for most of the straight but was no match for the in form Snowden mare Denpurr and settled for second. I think that run proved she isn’t just a Highway horse and that she can be a legitimate city grade galloper.
Race Nine (17:40) : Viridian Lightbridge Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Elemenohpee (Bet Now: $4.60) really came of age for Team Hawkes during the early part of Winter, winning three on the trot before ending the prep with a close up third at Randwick behind Badajoz, who went on to run a couple of ripping races in Melbourne. Trials leading in have been sharp and he looks ready to run a beaut race fresh.
Big Danger: 3 Alart (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Stakes winning mare that resumes here for Pat Farrell. Her prep last year just stank to be fair, running some awful races, albeit in harder company than this. But I think she may have turned the corner judging on her Muswellbrook trial win, where she bolted up and won it under triple wraps, and ran time. Just needs luck from the tricky gate to be a threat.
Long Shot: 5 Arise Augustus (Bet Now: $26.00) ran in the feature sprint race on Port Macquarie Cup Day where he sat off speed and chased hard all the way as he always does when running fourth to the low flying Supreme Effort, beaten four lengths. Isn’t racing as well as he can, but he tries hard and should be around the mark.
BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Moher
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Darhad
VALUE: Race Four Number 8 Artistic Beauty
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11, 15, 16
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9
Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 10, 12
Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 9, 13
$50 Investment= 5.71% of the dividend if successful
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