29/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Underwood Stakes day

A bumper card of racing has been assembled for Caulfield on Sunday for Underwood Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Underwood Stakes Field 🏆: View the Underwood Stakes Field

Bit of a nothing race this with a host of chances. Landed with 8 Tysonic (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS), who is having her second start under the care of Lindsey Smith. Resumed over 1500m at Bendigo where she paraded as if she’d take good improvement from the outing and raced accordingly behind Tides but the effort was still solid. Like her at 1800m and has run well at Caulfield previously.

3 Pierrocity (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) is a Busuttin/Young trained mare that won a couple on the bounce before being tested at Stakes level last Saturday at Morphettville in the Tokyo City Cup and I thought she was far from disgraced behind Single Handed, with that form being ticked off yesterday thanks to Charossa. Back to Maares grade from gate one, she’ll be hard to beat.

2 Special Alert (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS)…is she back on track? Didn’t think she was too bad two back behind Junipal before being okay late again behind Silent Roar, a race that has turned out to be a decent form race. Big ticks for her are up to 1800m, back to Mares grade and she should just about be at peak fitness now, so no real shock to see her backed at the longer odds.

I’m keen to see how 10 Island Daze (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) resumes for Grahame Begg. This mare looks to be flying if the trials are any guide. Looked to move very well in the first trial when second to Evil Cry before not being asked for an effort at all behind another talented mare in Humma Humma. She’s a bomb when produced fresh and should take some beating here.

I’ve always had time for 5 Petrelle (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) and she looks to have returned in really good order for Archie Alexander. Can’t remember a time she has trialled bad, but was very taken by her recent jumpout win at Warracknabeal. Led all the way over 1000m and ran sub 58 in winning, and did it without being extended. Then jumped out at Ararat and went beautifully in behind Harbour Views. Unbeaten fresh…just hope they let her sit on speed and not look for cover.

9 Victory Kingdom (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare that was well tried and liked when racing at the Valley last time out but nothing really went right for her. She was back near last whereas most had her mapping near the speed so a total forgive behind Tofane. Her run prior was outstanding and she’s third up here, so she should just about be ready fitness wise.

Bit of residual fitness and a potentially soft lead, I’m going the way of 6 Masculino (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS), who hasn’t raced since August 24 when down the track at the Valley over 2040m behind an in form Kentucky Breeze. Back to 1700m against some class animals is a little query, but he has residual fitness, should lead for fun and gets the claim for an in form Lachie King.

If he’s right, 3 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) should go close to winning this. Talented animal for Anthony Freedman that resumes, having not raced since the early part of the Brisbane Winter Carnival when down the track over the mile at Doomben behind Archedemus. Has a good fresh record and loved what I’ve seen from him in two trials. 1700m fresh tells me he’s ready to go.

This time last year, 5 Vassilator (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) was placing in the Caulfield Guineas behind The Autumn Sun. He’s had three runs back from a spell and has been steadily getting better with each outing, the latest coming over 1400m at Flemington when a closing fourth to Rox The Castle. Racing as if he wants further now he’s had two 1400m runs and his best is clearly good enough.

4 Waging War (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is flying for the Macdonald/Gluyas team and is knocking on the door to win. I think he gets his chance here. His effort in the Balaklava Cup was absolutely enormous, getting stuck wide no cover for the majority of the race yet kept finding and was outstanding in defeat when beaten narrowly by Brown Ben. Has run well in Melbourne before and he should be doing that again here.

Kerry Edwards has done a fab job with 2 Rox The Castle (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS). Soft lead ensured he won two back at Sandown before going to the 1400m at Flemington where it wasn’t so much the tempo, it was the ride from Williams that got him the win, showing initiative from the wide gate to land on speed and from there, it was a pretty painless watch if you were on. He’ll run well once again.

10 Admiral’s Joker (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is a very talented animal for Kylie Vella. He resumed over an unsuitable trip at Geelong, 1100m, and he was back in the run, but gee he produced an outstanding finale and was one of the wins of the day in getting the job done. Willow takes over, gets really good weight relief, up in trip with upside…he ticks plenty of boxes against these.

I’m the #1 ticket holder in the 3 Dalasan (Bet Now: $2.45) fan club and won’t be dropping off him here and into the Guineas. He looked drunk down the Flemington straight in the Danehill, he was looking for further, but class got him home and on the line, it was pretty soft. He should take a fair amount of improvement from that and up to 1400m, fitter…I’m really keen on him.

I think the main threat to Dalasan both here and into the Guineas will be 12 Express Pass (Bet Now: $10.00). Arrogant maiden winner first up at Bendigo before going to the Danehill where he was very good from the back behind Dalasan in an excellent showing, confirming he belongs at this level. Trained on the track and off the last run, he should really appreciate the 1400m.

Huge fan of 8 Roccabascerana (Bet Now: $13.00) and confident he can measure up in Melbourne, like so many Adelaide runners have done in recent weeks when heading this way. He’s 2/2 this time in, and 3/3 in his career to date. Looked in a bit of trouble last time out but once he was fully extended, his class came to the fore and he was too good. Think he’s looking for extra ground, which he gets here, he’ll land on speed and be hard to run down.

3 Flit (Bet Now: $3.60) looks one of the hardest to beat in the Thousand Guineas so keen to see how she goes here. She resumed in the Silver Shadow behind Libertini and was very good late when second to that star filly, looking like she wants further which she gets here. This should top her off for the GF, where I think she’s just about #1 seed for the race. She’ll be charging at the end.

2 Tenley (Bet Now: $4.80) looks to be getting back to her best. Just looked in need of the run first up behind Libertini at Randwick prior to racing over 1400m at Flemington where she was one of a couple of desperately unlucky runners and you could easily make a case she should have won when third to Legionnaire. Third up, should be hard fit and she does have class.

Bigger track and 1400m should really suit 13 Saone (Bet Now: $18.00). Not sure what Lindsey Smith has in mind for her, but she’s got ability. Loved the way she found the line first up in the Atlantic Jewel behind Exhilarates after getting back to near last in the run, producing really good late splits to run third. Should eat up the 1400m here you’d assume and take good improvement from the run.

It’ll take a good one to get past 8 Homesman (Bet Now: $2.30). He was relatively solid in betting when resuming in the Feehan at the Valley and under a confident steer from Ben Melham, his class really came to the fore and despite it being his first run since the Caulfield Cup, he powered clear late and was impressive. You’d like to assume there is only room for improvement.

He’s a star 1 Hartnell (Bet Now: $4.40) and will run well once again. His effort in the makybe Diva was excellent after a somewhat negative ride from the gate. Just had too much ground to make up out wide but his effort was still full of merit. Been trained as a miler for the last 12 months, so up to 1800m is a little query, but he has the runs on the board and did place behind Winx in the Queen Elizabeth at the end of last prep.

12 The Chosen One (Bet Now: $12.00) gets another chance. The Baker/Forsman stable trains this four year old, who resumed in the Feehan when wide no cover for the trip and that early work just told on him late behind Homesman, but he was far from disgraced. Like him up to 1800m and with better luck this time around, he can run a much improved race at good odds.

11 Haunted (Bet Now: $7.50) is a real model of consistency for James Cummings who rarely runs a bad race. Continued that good run of form several weeks ago in the Regal Roller when a tough second to all the way winner Begood Toya Mother. There is a bit of depth to this line up, but have to like the way he’s going about his work and has to be rated as one of the leading chances.

Big fan of 15 Special Reward (Bet Now: $3.50) and the fact he comes over to Melbourne instead of staying in Perth tells me the stable are confident he can measure up to better races. He resumes for Simon Miller after doing some really nice things last time in. He was a standout in a recent set of Lark Hill trials, he lands on speed, hard to beat…just the price. Too short.

2 Brave Song (Bet Now: $9.00) is a quality sprinter for the Snowden camp that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since the Healy Stakes during the Brisbane Winter Carnival when getting a well deserved Stakes win next to his name and he was unlucky not to get a run in the Stradbroke, where he would have run well. Liked the way he went in a recent trial and does like Caulfield.

I could easily have something on 9 Snogging (Bet Now: $13.00). The Busuttin/Young stable trains this mare, who is first up after what was a decent enough Autumn prep, which saw her place in a couple of blacktype races during the Adelaide Carnival. Can sprint well fresh and loved the way she went in a recent Cranbourne jumpout. I reckon she’s ready to run a bold race fresh.

The horse that most will be watching is 17 Harbour Views (Bet Now: $2.40), the boom OTI galloper for Matty Williams that is unbeaten and has looked outstanding each time he has stepped out. He looked sharp in a recent Cranbourne trial and his Ararat jumpout was just outstanding where he made noted trial star Petrelle look just fair. He’ll take a power of beating.

The Adelaide raiders always have good success when they come to Melbourne so I’m respecting 11 Aiguilette (Bet Now: $6.50) for John Macmillan, who is 2/2 this time in and has been impressive each start, the latest coming just over two weeks when on speed and though challenged late, he gave a good kick when asked and was too good. Hardest test to date, but all you can do is win and he has earned a crack in Melbourne.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Dalasan

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Homesman

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 9 Snogging

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 13

Leg Two: 1, 8, 12

Leg Three: 2, 8, 11, 15

Leg Four: 6, 9, 11, 15, 17

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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