A key meeting in terms of the landscape for the three year olds and the sprinter/milers will take place at Caulfield this Sunday, with the highlight being the $400,000 Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m), with a crack field assembled, headed up by multiple Group l winner Dissident and iron mare Sweet Idea.
Preludes to the Thousand Guineas and the Caulfield Guineas also highlight the program, with Bring Me The Maid looking to bounce back in the fillies division after her luckless Golden Rose performance, while Rich Enuff will have to be every bit as good as what he has shown if he is to win the boys race given he has drawn barrier 18.
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Race One (1:00pm) : TROA Supports Jockeys Trust Plate (84) 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen on Spinderbella (Best Odds: $4.60) here. I really liked the way she trialled prior to her first up run at Mornington, where she was fantastic, coming from the back, looking the winner on the turn before being bloused in the last two or three strides by a horse who had a weight pull and race fitness. Fitter, quickly up to 1800m now, Bossy steers, home track and gets weight relief. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Aliyana (Best Odds: $4.80) was brilliant at her debut for Darren Weir at Flemington, then has run two placings at the Valley since. She was very strong late behind Relentless, then I thought she had her chance when third to Rememba Howie, but the one excuse I could give her was the fact she was ridden a touch closer to the speed than normal, so perhaps with colder steer, she can find the line, and if that eventuates, she’ll go close.
Roughie: Winta Chiller (Best Odds: $6.00) was just behind them late in the Let’s Elope, cluttered up in a wall behind Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi. Big drop in class here and isn’t really hurt at the weights, so really there are no excuses for her here. Only concern is that it has been a while since she has greeted the judge.
$500 Spinderbella Free Bet
Race Two (1:35pm) : Inglis Ready2Race Sale Plate (90) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Count Encosta (Best Odds: $7.00) for me here. He has really found his best since joining the Weir camp, and there was plenty of merit in his fighting second to Mulaqen at the Valley over 2500m last time out. He kept finding, but the winner was a touch too strong over the journey, so coming back to 2000m and on to a bigger track, with Rawiller back aboard, looks a recipe for victory.
Big Danger: Wrotham Heath (Best Odds: $12.00) was given a slaughter by Dunn two back at the Valley, but the champion hoop made amends with a plum steer to get the horse home a fortnight later, although the horse had nothing left in the tank. He has been given three weeks to recover from that outing, and perhaps a more patient ride will be better suited for this race hence why Nick Hall is on top. Hard to beat provided he holds his form.
Roughie: Hartani (Best Odds: $81.00) is an interesting import for Team Williams. He has only had the one Australian run, back last year in the Eclipse when down the track to Mouro, but going back through his form, four runs back he spanked the Melbourne Cup favourite, The Offer, by over six lengths. If he brings that here, he is right in the mix.
$500 Count Encosta Free Bet
Race Three (2:10pm) : CityOpera Plate (90) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Waddle your finger and hope for the best. I will go with the Adelaide mare, Quick Lover (Best Odds: $13.00). She was heavily backed first up at Morphettville and was given a 12/10 steer by the best apprentice in South Australia, Jake Toeroek, getting up towards the fence and bursting clear to win impressively. Big leap in class now, but as we know with Richard Jolly, he doesn’t bring them over for a holiday. He brings them to win.
Big Danger: Minaj (Best Odds: $6.00) comes back to benchmark company after racing in the Carlyon Stakes first up at Moonee Valley. She showed her usual dazzling early speed to lead them comfortably, but the hotness of the race itself and being fresh probably just got to her late and she petered out of it. Should have no trouble leading these from the rails draw, and gets in well after the claim for Regan Bayliss.
Roughie: Griante (Best Odds: $12.00) was an alarming drifter in the market when resuming at Mornington, and she ran accordingly, being a spent force on the turn and plugging away for fourth. She is much better than that, as we saw during the Winter, where she was stakes placed. Dunn back aboard, bigger track, fitter, expect improvement.
$500 Quick Lover Free Bet
Race Four (2:45pm) : Caulfield RSL Welfare Fund Plate 1700m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Prince Of Penzance (Best Odds: $6.50) on top, but I’ll say this is D-Day for him. He needs to win, or at worst run top three to warrant a campaign in better races. First up run was okay here behind Henwood, then went to Flemington and was just fair behind Brambles. Stays at 1700m, good record at Caulfield and finds a very winnable race if he finds his best form, which I’m gambling on that he will bring here.
Big Danger: Le Roi (Best Odds: $6.50) is one of many interesting runners here. Won impressively at the Valley before being sent to Randwick for the Queen Elizabeth where he was totally outclassed behind It’s A Dundeel and co before going to Morphettville and looking like a tired horse when sixth to Ominous in the Port Adelaide Cup. He trialled at the end of August and attacked the line with purpose behind Gangster’s Choice, indicating he was relatively forward enough to perform well fresh, and he does have a good first up record. Oliver being booked is also a good lead.
Roughie: It’ll be one of the training performances of the season if Practiced (Best Odds: $14.00) was to get the job done here given he is first up from a 575 day spell. He was last seen during the Autumn of 2013 where he ran a close second to Auld Burns at Flemington. Couple of starts prior he ran second to Puissance De Lune, so we know he has the ability, and when Team Williams persists with an injury plagued galloper, they usually get rewards at some stage, so keep an eye on the market.
$500 Prince Of Penzance Free Bet
Race Five (3:25pm) : Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Bring Me The Maid (Best Odds: $2.90) looks the safe way to go here. She kicked off her Spring with a dominant win in the Silver Shadow at Randwick, then was sent around as top pick in betting for the Golden Rose where she didn’t have a great deal of luck in the straight. Should have finished closer, but I doubt she would have won given the fast lane was out wide. Comes back to Melbourne, own age and sex, good gate, looks the winner.
Big Danger: I think Pickin’ Time (Best Odds: $9.00), potentially, is the best filly in the race, but she has no idea what the racing game is all about, as we saw last week over this track/distance when second to Thinking Of You. She cruised up on the turn, but she didn’t know how to finish the race off and was all over the shop in the straight. She can storm over the top and beat these without surprising me.
Roughie: Gotta forgive and forget Go Indy Go and her fresh run in the Danehill where she went dreadfully and finished tailed off last behind Rich Enuff. Pulled up fine but, so I’ll put it down to the firm track. She’ll get a similar track today, so that’s a worry, but we saw in the Autumn how good she was when she got to this distance range, so give her another chance at a crazy price.
$500 Bring Me The Maid Free Bet
Race Six (4:00pm) : BECK Caulfield Guineas Prelude 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks Like The Cat (Best Odds: $3.60) was superb at his first run away from Queensland when second to Rich Enuff in the Danehill, making up a stack of ground late and beating the rest with ease. Extra distance definitely suits, as does coming back to racing around a bend, along with added fitness, he looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: The step up to 1400m will also be really beneficial for Awesome Rock (Best Odds: $9.00), who also attacked the line with purpose in the Danehill, but was no match for the first two. What brings him right into the mix here is the good gate. He can sit much closer to the speed and not spend as much petrol, and he may have a head start on the top tip.
Roughie: Liberation could well be the best three year old in Australia, but as long as he is a colt, he won’t fulfill his true potential. Should have won his past two outings, but very erratic manners has cost him dearly. Blinkers go on now, comes to Melbourne for the first, and it was a near identical path used with Helmet a couple of years ago. He won this race then went on to win the Caulfield Guineas after racing erratically in Sydney.
$500 Looks Like The Cat Free Bet
Race Seven (4:40pm) : Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I have been very impressed by the way Sweet Idea (Best Odds: $7.50) has gone about it this Spring. She trialled brilliantly then backed it up with a tough first up win in the Missile before running in the Memsie and giving her all when second to Dissident, the in form galloper this season. Her recent jumpout at Flemington was out of this world, then was sizzling in trackwork on Monday at the Valley. Can’t see her copping too much pressure in front, so she looks the one to beat for mine. I was hugely impressed by Dissident in the Makybe Diva, but given his big aim is the Caulfield Stakes, I am steering clear of him here.
Big Danger: Trust In A Gust (Best Odds: $8.50) has been racing so well for a while now that he deserves a crack at Group l level and he finds a great race to test out just how good he is. He had no luck in his first two runs this time in, but he did win fresh and was beat by the bob of the head at his next outing. He then ran last week here and just absolutely brained them, running slick time. Tumbles down to 52kg, maps so well outside Sweet Idea, and he doesn’t mind getting dirty when it matters.
Roughie: Cluster (Best Odds: $7.50) was one of the wins of the afternoon on Golden Rose Day at Rosehill when winning the Theo Marks given he was last in the run, last on the turn and they hadn’t gone hard in front. He has been up since June, with a couple of freshen ups in between, but is racing with class and quality at the moment, and was outstanding in trackwork during the week. Massive chance.
$500 Sweet Idea Free Bet
Race Eight (5:15pm) : BECK Probuild Testa Rossa Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Well if you backed Vain Queen (Best Odds: $5.00) last time out here in the Heath, it was very ugly to watch and it wasn’t one of Craig Williams’ best rides. She didn’t have a great deal of luck too it has to be said in the run, but the steer wasn’t flash. Fitter, extra 100m looks ideal and a jockey who has had success on her and knows her well, Tom Sadler, takes over the steering. One to beat for mine in a really good race with plenty of depth and class.
Big Danger: Lion of Belfort (Best Odds: $13.00) wasn’t too bad I thought when he resumed with a fifth to Atlante at the Valley. He got cluttered away near the fence and never really got a decent crack to sprint, and given he was first up since February, he was never going to win with that situation. Back to his home track now, Nick Hall sticks and will appreciate a hot speed, which he’ll get here.
Roughie: Target In Sight (Best Odds: $7.50) surprised many with his electric first up win over 1000m at Randwick, then stayed at that distance in the Concorde and was simply run off his legs in the mud, tailing out early on before savaging the line in the last 100m when seventh to Wouldn’t It Be Nice. 1200m is a definite plus, as is a firm track, and as is the case with the Big Danger, a good tempo will be right up his alley.
$500 Vain Queen Free Bet
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Bring Me The Maid
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 Spinderbella
VALUE: Race Seven Number 7 Sweet Idea
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 12, 13
$50 Investment = 4.34% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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