With the AFL Grand Final being played in Melbourne on Saturday Rosehill racecourse will take centre stage for horse racing around the country. There are six feature races on the day including two Group 2’s which are the Stan Fox Stakes and the Shannon Stakes.
The current track condition is a Good 3 and it is likely to remain that way throughout the day and the weather forecast looks kind for racegoers heading to the track.
Race One: Kari Aboriginal Resources-bm80 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: Ecuador beat a field of this quality with ease last start and he will do the same again on Saturday. He will go to the front and will take a lot of beating although punters will have to take odds of $1.40.
Don’t Back Me: Multilateral was well beaten by Ecuador last start and despite getting into this race better in the weights i doubt it will be enough to turn the tables.
Big Danger: Animoso hit the line well in a similar class race last start and he will be better from the run. Could be the danger to the favourite in the race.
Roughie: Masahiko was a little disappointing last start in a race that he would be right in the finish although im happy to give him another chance on Saturday and at $21 he looks a very good place hope.
Race Two: Stan Fox Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Criterion has had two starts this preparation finishing back in both of them although both weren’t bad runs and i think he will be much better on Saturday against easier competition. Currently $5 in betting which goods value in a very winnable race for him.
Don’t Back Me: Eurozone won his first three career starts although that was against much easier competition. Last two starts have shown he is not up to this class and he will be beaten again on Saturday.
Big Danger: Aussies Love Sport will start as the odds on favourite in the race and he looks hard to beat in the small field. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed so he may be able to go forward and dictate the race.
Roughie: Bodega Negra has shown a lot of ability at his three career starts although he has thrown two of those races away by running erratically and jumping poorly. If he can put it all together on Saturday he will be one to watch at $17.
Race Three: Tab Colin Stephen Qlty 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m Imposing went back in the run last start and in what was a slowly run race he didn’t really have a chance of winning. Likely to race in the same pattern and over the longer distance he will be able to show his staying ability and the pull in the weights is a massive bonus making the $6.50 on offer great value.
Don’t Back Me: Less Is More i thought peaked on his run over the 2000m last start which makes me think he wont get the 2400m trip on Saturday and his form suggests that having only won one from five over the trip so at $4 in betting i will be backing around him.
Big Danger: Julienas put in a big run last start and his form suggests he will be hard to beat here. He will have to carry the top weight which may cost him the race but he looks hard to beat.
Roughie: Polish Knight was slow to begin last start then got a long way back before making decent ground late. The step up in distance from that run will suit and he could blow out this small field at $17 in betting.
Race Four: Bacardi Reginald Allen Qlty 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Greytfilly jumped slowly last start then went back in what was a pretty slowly run race and she was able t make up good ground. She finds an easier race here and there should be more speed in this race which will suit her running pattern and at $9 she represents good value in the race.
Don’t Back Me: Champagne Cath won on debut like a super star but has failed to live up to that run failing at her following three starts. Ran an improved race last start although i am happy to risk her until she shows the form she showed on debut.
Big Danger: Shahad is yet to win from seven starts but she finds an easier race here and she will go to the front and dictate the race. If she doesn’t get pressured too much early she will be hard to beat.
Roughie: Kirramosa was unlucky two starts ago then came out last start and won well. Looks a filly who will continue to improve and she doesn’t find that tough of a field on Saturday were she is a $12 chance.
Race Five: Golden Pendant 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Red Tracer has never been unplaced first up which she is on Saturday. Nash takes the ride and he has never been beaten on her from five rides including the Group 1 Tatt’s Tiara last preparation. She will need some luck from the barrier, in saying that she will be very hard to beat at good odds of $4.
Don’t Back Me: Appearance is a very good mare although she has never placed over the distance and has never won second up which she is on Saturday. She will go back and im not sure there will be enough speed in the race to see her win.
Big Danger: Bennetta returned this preparation with a very good first up run and looked like she would take a lot of improvement from that run. Has drawn barrier 1 so wont spend any energy but will need a bit of luck in the straight.
Roughie: Express Power showed she could match it with some of the best fillies and mares in the country last preparation and despite needing a run or two to be at her best i think she can put in a big one first up on Saturday in which she is $15 in betting.
Race Six: Pj’s Irish Pub Gloaming Stakes 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Drago didn’t hit the line as strongly as perhaps i thought he would in the Golden Rose although im confident with the extra distance here and the drop in class will see him winning on Saturday. The barrier wont be an issue as he will go back and he will be coming on strongly wide late at decent odds of $3.
Don’t Back Me: Savvy Nature had all of the favours last start when he went back on what was a quick tempo and he came over the top of them to win. This is a step up in class and i doubt he will get things to suit again so i will be backing around him.
Big Danger: Order Of The Sun was very gallant in defeat last start when he went to the front in what was a very quick tempo and his ability allowed him to stick on to only just be beaten on the line. If he can get some slow sectionals on Saturday he will be right in this race at $21.
Roughie: Dowdstown Charlie has been disappointing his last two starts when being well beaten although he is a much better horse than what he showed in both of those runs. He will start at big odds on Saturday and i think he can turn his form around and put in a big run in a winnable race for him.
Race Seven: Ascend Trophies Shannon Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Single is coming out of the best form race i think heading into this race and he drops in weight from that run. He will need a bit of luck from the barrier but im sure Tommy Berry will give him every chance and at $18 he looks great value.
Don’t Back Me: High Esteem has run second at his last two starts and goes up in class and weight here so i am willing to risk him on Saturday in which he is currently $4.60 in betting which isn’t good value.
Big Danger: Your Honour’s run last start was massive when making up a stack of ground late in a race that didn’t have the tempo for him to win. There looks to be more speed in this race and with the light weight he could put in a big run and win.
Roughie: Hoylonny has a good first up record which he is on Saturday and has a good record at the distance and the track. She raced in some good races last preparation and this looks to be a very winnable Group 2 for him.
Race Eight: The Paslode Sprint (bm85) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Agent has had to carry massive weights at his last two starts so the drop in weight on Saturday i feel will be enough to see him win. He is yet to be unplaced at the distance and his record at Rosehill is good. $8 in betting which i think is massive value.
Don’t Back Me: Knight Exemplar stepped up in grade last start and wasn’t disgraced although his record on good tracks isn’t good having never won from six starts and this is a very tough race so i will be betting around him at odds of $5.
Big Danger: Heart Testa looks very well placed in this race and she deserves a win after being so competitive in good races in her last two preparations. She has drawn well, likes the distance and on top of the ground will be very hard to beat.
Roughie: Tromso has a very good first up record as well as a good strike rate at the distance and a decent strike rate at the track. He has been given the top weight but with the 3kg claim of John Kissick he gets in quite well in the weights.
Best Bet: Drago
Next Best: Criterion
Best Roughie: Single
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