28/6/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Winter Cup day

Rosehill is where Sydney racing takes place this Saturday with a strong eight race card, highlighted by the $100,000 Listed Winter Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is dead and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. With the rail in the true position and with the fine weather, the track should play fair and every horse will get their chance.

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Race One (12:20) : TAB Early Quaddie Handicap 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Winx (Best Odds: $1.75) on top. Waller youngster who really impressed in winning on debut at Warwick Farm, settling off the speed before surging out wide late to win with something up the sleeve. No qualms about 1400m and should get every chance from the paint.
Big Danger: Joadja (Best Odds: $9.00) worked to the line strongly late a fortnight back behind Sniper Fire, where that particular horse had a picnic in front and sprinted them up. A similar situation may unfold here and the race appears to have more depth, but she is rock hard fit with the race experience.
Roughie: Patinack youngster Win For Levi (Best Odds: $31.00) closed off really well on debut at Kembla when beaten narrowly by Detachment. Gets a slight well pull here and appears to have more upside, so he goes in as third pick.

$700 Winx Free Bet

Race Two (12:55) : Theraces.com.au (74) 1350m Form Guide

Back Me: In A Knot (Best Odds: $3.90) on top for me. He was one of the runs of the day last week at Randwick given he was near last in a race dominated by the leader and eventual winner Sugar Rush, who absolutely crawled them in front. In A Knot had no right to make up as much ground as he did, so provided he has come through the run in one order, he should take a power of beating here.
Big Danger: Black Revolver (Best Odds: $7.50) has been a touch frustrating to follow this time in, but if you do look closely at his runs, they are better than what is seen on face value. Forget he went around last start given he didn’t have much luck and the small field didn’t suit. Bit more depth here now, hopefully more speed for his supporters and he should be in the mix.
Roughie: There were question marks about Truly Ready (Best Odds: $5.50) beyond 1200m, but she put those to bed with a strong, gritty win over 1300m at Kensington, aided by a Nash gem. Should get a dream run from the barrier and prove hard to beat.

$700 In A Knot Free Bet

Race Three (13:30) : Spring Carnival On Sale Handicap (83) 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: Forever Crazy (Best Odds: $11.00) for me here. I thought she was quite good first up here a fortnight back when working home nicely between runners, finishing a 1.2L sixth to Sense And Reason. I’m very keen to lay Sense And Reason in this because she is taking on the older mares and is now starting to creep up in the weights. Forever Crazy has upside and the barrier advantage.
Big Danger: If you are looking at this race in the weights, then Zuccherina (Best Odds: $8.00) is the mare to beat. She was very unlucky when second to Sense And Reason given she was out wide and made to work hard, whereas the winner pinched a glorious inside run and dashed through. That filly goes up 3kg in weights, while Zuccherina drops a kilo…firmer track and a fairer surface will see be there when the whips are cracking.
Roughie: I didn’t mind the chances of Fulminate (Best Odds: $15.00) when she resumed at Canterbury, but she was simply dreadful there, too bad to be true. Has since gone back to the trials and went very sharply in running second. She did this also prior to the Canterbury run, so she needs to show it on raceday, but if she does, she’ll give it a shake.

$700 Forever Crazy Free Bet

Race Four (14:05) : Significant Stakes 1900m Form Guide

Back Me: Putting The Alfonso (Best Odds: $2.90) on top. His last two wins from as many starts have been quite impressive, in particular last time out at Warwick Farm where he let down powerfully despite carrying 58kg and taking on the older horses. Looks to have plenty of upside, distance rise suits and is on his home track.
Big Danger: Off The Rails (Best Odds: $8.00) was a tough winner two back at Randwick, then was gritty and gallant in defeat when a narrow second to Majorly at Kensington. He was quite good there considering he was up on the speed, on a heavy track and carried 59kg. He gets weight relief here and is a winner at this distance range.
Roughie: Enormous Honour (Best Odds: $7.50) is another Waller runner who looks to have plenty of upside. Last two starts, both resulting in wins, have come at Canterbury, and I was quite taken by his last win considering he was held up badly on the rail behind a tiring leader upon straightening, then getting the split and sprinting hard to win quite comfortably on the line. Bigger track looks a massive plus and looks as if he’ll have no qualms with 1900m.

$700 The Alfonso Free Bet

Race Five (14:40) : Perfection Fresh ATC Winter Cup 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: Destiny’s Kiss (Best Odds: $3.20) looks the way to go. He was outstanding in winning the Stayers Cup, carrying 59kg on a heavy track and being made to carry it courtesy of the tearaway leader Astro Avalanche. He eventually wore him down and got the job done. My only concern is whether that gut buster has taken alot out of him and whether or not he has had enough recovery time. If he is fit and healthy, he really should be winning this.
Big Danger: Mulaqen (Best Odds: $4.50) has had three solid runs this time in now, the last of which came here two weeks back when a strong third to Keep Cool over 2000m. He gets up to his best distance now, on the minimum, and the jockey/trainer combination has been firing recently.
Roughie: The stop start tactics didn’t work out with Sir Bigglesworth (Best Odds: $10.00) last Saturday at Randwick when well beaten by Jo Jo Girl. He should get a dream run in front here, and if they give him a more conservative front running ride, he can give some cheek and cause an upset.

$700 Destiny’s Kiss Free Bet

Race Six (15:15) : Natski Handicap 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: I’ll put Scream Machine (Best Odds: $2.60) on top, but the confidence is not as high as what it was last time out. He would have been a good thing beaten had he not got the split 150m out, but thankfully he did, and burst through powerfully to win. I do remember trainer Jason Coyle saying to the media prior that the horse was fresh and had upside, so I can only expect improvement, and even with the weight rise, he looks the way to go.
Big Danger: Single (Best Odds: $11.00) is getting close to winning again after three strong runs back from a break, in particular behind Scream Machine where he made up nice ground. Winona Costin sticks, carries the same weight as last start and shouldn’t be too far away from the good draw.
Roughie: I think maybe wait for Bagman (Best Odds: $7.50) to get over a bit more ground, but he has come back so well for Chris Waller. Behind Scream Machine he went to the line under double wraps, never ever getting a look at them. With even luck, he could win without surprising, but I think his turn will come as the distances increase.

$700 Scream Machine Free Bet

Race Seven (15:50) : TAB Rewards Handicap (85) 1900m Form Guide

Back Me: Saigon Tea (Best Odds: $4.60) looked the good thing on the program when racing at Randwick three weeks back, and she duly saluted albeit the field wasn’t great. But the key was getting a confidence boost because she had been racing well without much luck prior to that. Much better with give in the ground, so that is the query, but the stable are unstoppable at the moment.
Big Danger:  Dream Folk (Best Odds: $4.50) was given an absolute peach steer by Shinn last time out, but just couldn’t quite pick up the leader and eventual winner Keep Cool. Firmer track helps, as does coming back in distance and facing inferior opposition.
Roughie: Going for a real bolter in King Utah (Best Odds: $101.00). He had been off the scene for 16 months prior to resuming at Grafton. Take away his second up run, and I think each of his three other runs have been ok. Take away the Waller runners, along with another one or two, and this race is pretty thin. Chuck him in exotics.

$700 Saigon Tea Free Bet

Race Eight (16:25) : Tooheys New Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Oh Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $6.50) … you did it to me again last start. Loomed to win late in the piece, but had a good think about it and let your stablemate win. I’m hoping he is a touch closer from the good draw and Jason Collett takes the ride, which is a plus given he has had success on the horse in the past.
Big Danger: Casual Choice (Best Odds: $7.00) had his first run for Joe Pride here a fortnight back and worked home well in the race mentioned above, finishing just under three lengths away from Green Beret. He should have a stack of upside left and will get every chance from barrier one.
Roughie: Field Marshall (Best Odds: $9.50) was a very frustrating horse to follow last time in, continually having bad in run race manners, which cost him at least two wins. The two trials he has had leading up to this tell me he may have turned the corner. Would have been top tip had he drawn a gate, but still rates as a serious chance.

$700 Earnest Ernest Free Bet

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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 4, 6, 7, 8, 10

Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 7

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.