The Doomben part of the Brisbane Carnival wraps up this Saturday with a cracking program, headlined by the time honoured Group l Doomben 10000. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:07) : Ambassador Travel Handicap (95) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Fine Mist (Bet Now: $2.40) was an eye catcher in the Gold Rush (1100m) at Hawkesbury given she was first up and had to cut back to the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. She has been nommed/accepted a couple of times since, so she is all about placement and this looks a good race for her.
Big Danger: 8 Upstart Pride (Bet Now: $8.00) ran here a fortnight back where there was support for him and he ran on late when fourth to Sony Legend. He was once known as a speed demon, but they are riding him with cover now and he is attacking the line better. Winning chance for sure.
Roughie: 9 Londehero (Bet Now: $9.00) ran at this distance at the Gold Coast three weeks back and worked home well late behind Royal Occasion in running fourth, beaten two lengths. Hasn’t won for a while, but if he can somehow sit closer, he is a genuine threat.
Race Two (12:42) : Suez Queensland Day Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Mogador and Barood. Leaning towards the one with upside, 5 Barood (Bet Now: $3.80). Both come through the Scone, and both were unlucky, more so Barood, who was bolting in the run and looked a winning chance but got cut out of the run. Better luck here and he will take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Mogador (Bet Now: $2.80) has the class on his side but hasn’t quite fulfilled his potential. He ran third in that race at Scone and was a little unlucky too not to finish closer. This is D-Day for him and whether he is a Stakes horse or not.
Roughie: 4 Always Sacred (Bet Now: $5.00) was smashed in getting when resuming and duly saluted before going to the Gold Coast Guineas where he ran a game third to Takedown in a race where the form has been mixed since. Still, he is a talented and only third up here.
Race Three (13:22) : Glenlogan Park Stakes 1350m:
Back Me: 8 Ghisoni (Bet Now: $1.70) is the obvious. Was touted as a 10000 contender, but instead tackles the softer option here after a desperately unlucky run in the Arrowfield Sprint (1200m) behind Japonisme. Recent Warwick Farm trial was very good and she looks the one to beat on form.
Big Danger: 9 Press Report (Bet Now: $12.00) is a ripper for Lee Curtis. Problem is she hasn’t won for a long time but she should run well here off the back of her game third to Danish Twist in the Dark Jewel during the Scone Carnival. She’ll do no work from the gate and I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t place.
Roughie: 10 Beatniks (Bet Now: $26.00) comes through the Silk Stocking at the Gold Coast where she just couldn’t make ground in a race that was dominated by the front two. She saves her best for Doomben and will get a soft trip from the gate.
Race Four (14:02) : Channel Seven Premiers Cup 2200m:
Back Me: 4 Real Love (Bet Now: $3.00) won the JRA Cup and was given a beaut steer from Brad Rawiller to get the job done. She is an iron mare who is getting on, but continues to race so well and there is no reason why she can’t win here.
Big Danger: 1 Junoob (Bet Now: $5.50) loomed to win the JRA Cup but given he was second up, his fitness just gave way late and had to settle for a close up fourth. He has enormous upside and under the weights scale, he is the best weighted horse here.
Roughie: 5 Puccini (Bet Now: $19.00) is the knockout hope. Forget he went around in the Hollindale because WFA isn’t his go. This is, and that was his first run in a month, so for mine, he is the watch horse. Certainly capable of winning at his best.
Race Five (14:42) : Mitavite BRC Sires Produce Stakes 1350m:
Back Me: 2 Souchez (Bet Now: $2.30) resumed in the Champagne Classic (1200m) here a fortnight back and closed off strongly between runners late to run a close up third to Winning Rupert. He is another that will be better suited on a bigger track, but he has the run around Doomben under the belt, up in trip and should be strong late.
Big Danger: I’m a huge fan of the kiwi raider 6 Sacred Elixir (Bet Now: $11.00). He made his Australian debut at the Sunny Coast over 1400m and produced a brilliant finish from the back to win with a leg in the air. Back in trip and on tight track are the two major negatives, but he looks very classy and just has enormous upside.
Roughie: 12 Candika (Bet Now: $13.00) also comes through the Champagne Classic where she got back in the run and finished off her race nicely. Her Grand Final is clearly the J J Atkins, so I’d be looking for her to attack the line leading into the Group l, but she has the class and talent to beat these.
Race Six (15:21) : Programmed Property Services Lord Mayors Cup 1615m:
Back Me: Scone Cup looks the main form reference and I thought the best run of the beaten brigade was 6 Mighty Lucky (Bet Now: $4.80). He was four and five wide no cover for the entire trip yet still kept coming to only be beaten a half length. WFA really suits him here given his rating and looks the clear weighted horse to win here.
Big Danger: 1 Amovatio (Bet Now: $4.60) has been ridden a treat by Rory Hutchings in his last two starts, resulting in a Hawkesbury Cup triumph before a narrow second to Pajaro in the Scone Cup where he got a long way back and hugged the rail. He is a horse who loves to travel and he rarely leaves without a cheque if on the road.
Roughie: 7 Hopfgarten (Bet Now: $6.50) is another well weighted horse. He comes through the Prime Minsters Cup at the Gold Coast where he stuck on well behind Coolring. WFA is his go at this level and being third up now, he should be ready to fire.
Race Seven (16:00) : James Boag’s Premium Doomben 10,000 1350m:
Back Me: 1 Delectation (Bet Now: $5.50) is my early Stradbroke tip but he can definitely win this in the process. He was the clear unlucky runner in the BTC Cup (1200m) where he got back near last in the run and absolutely savaged the line before being stopped in his tracks the final 75m when about to burst through. If he gets normal luck here, he’ll go very close, but keep in mind his Grand Final is the Stradbroke.
Big Danger: 7 Azkadellia (Bet Now: $3.00) looks a moral IMO with two negatives. She is the second best mare in Australia behind Winx and that was evident in the Autumn with a third to that mare in the Doncaster before backing up and winning the Coolmore Legacy in dominant fashion. She trialled last week at Eagle Farm and trotted up in winning. If this race was at Eagle Farm, I’d happily take $1.10. The Doomben track is the big query, but if she can handle that and not give away too big of a start, she’ll win. But the barrier will make it very hard for her.
Roughie: 8 Two Blue (Bet Now: $21.00) is an absolute beauty for Kristen Buchanan who is never too far away from the action. She gave an almighty sight in the BTC Cup but just felt the pinch late when fourth to Malaguerra. Up to 1350m is a big tick for her, she looks the sole leader again and will give them something to chase. Definite exotic player again.
Race Eight (16:37) : Mullins Lawyers Grand Prix Stakes 2200m:
Back Me: 8 Eagle Way (Bet Now: $10.00) was one of the better runs of the beaten brigade in the Rough Habit (2000m) given he was back near last in a race dominated on speed. Extra trip and a more genuine tempo will be right up his alley, and he looks the great value.
Big Danger: 4 Mackintosh (Bet Now: $2.30) does look the obvious threat. He crawled them up in front in that race mentioned above and never ever looked like getting beat. If the same thing happens here, he’ll win again, but I am hoping there is more pressure, which will probably suit this horse as well, along with others.
Roughie: 5 Unbreakable (Bet Now: $14.00) probably should have won last time out at Caulfield but the rider thought he was steering Might And Power and took off far too early. He can definitely measure up here in a very good race.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Delectation
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Mighty Lucky
VALUE: Race Eight Number 8 Eagle Way
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7
Leg Three: 1, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
$50 Investment= 25% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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