Group l racing in Sydney for 2015 starts off this Saturday at Warwick Farm, with the Western Sydney track to hold its lone major for the season, the $500,000 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), with Contributor looking the clear horse to beat in a star studded, including last years winner Boban, who has struggled in two runs back from a break. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (1:05pm) : Schweppes Handicap (83) 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Artibai and Danjeu. I will go with the Chris Waller trained Danjeu (Best Odds: $2.50). Don’t look too much into his Randwick win last week because he went to the front and was pretty much gifted the race. He looked impressive, but he was made to given the negative rides from the beaten brigade. He has to step it up a notch here, but is the runner with so much upside, so he has to go on top.
Big Danger: Artibai (Best Odds: $6.50) was desperately unlucky here two back over this track/distance when second to All My Loving. Trainer Kris Lees then beautifully placed him up north at Doomben and the horse duly won as an even money pop. Comes back to Sydney now and is starting to build up an impressive record.
Roughie: Those two look a fair way ahead of the rest, so who to put in for third? I’ll put in Sasenkile (Best Odds: $6.00). He was a dominant winner over 2000m at Rosehill, but he has to rise in weight, and the form out of that race has been very ordinary, but he just looks the best of the rest, which aren’t much good…especially Ghost Protocol…Jeez Louise. I will say that Ruling Dynasty is a nice up and comer for Team Cummings, but I doubt he’ll beat these tough, seasoned campaigners.
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Race Two (1:45pm) : Pro-Ride Skyline Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card here thanks to Exosphere (Best Odds: $2.30). Loved his trial win at Randwick, so I was surprised he opened at $2.80, and was more surprised to see him drift to $3.60. He thankfully backed up the trial and bolted in, winning by a space under hands and heels riding. The key to him is ride him quiet and with cover. On debut he pulled his head off and ran last. He is one of the better Godolphin youngsters and should ensure his Slipper spot by winning here.
Big Danger: Wolf Cry (Best Odds: $4.00) worked home strongly first up in the Lonhro Plate despite doing plenty wrong in the straight, and probably cost Sebring Sun victory. He was first up there, so he perhaps raced a tad too fresh. His debut third in the Breeders behind Vancouver was excellent, his trials leading up to the Lonhro Plate were strong and he is in the right stable.
Roughie: Wouldn’t drop off Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $26.00). His debut win in the Inglis Nursery was very good before he was freshened up and ran in the Inglis Classic. He loomed to win here, but his fitness just gave way with about 150m to go and whacked away for fourth. All that prizemoney doesn’t count towards the Slipper, so he needs to win to secure a spot, and the talent he has suggests he could…but I am not sure he can beat Exosphere.
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Race Three (2:20pm) : Les Johnson Sweet Embrace Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Gee this is a hot race. I think there are two winning chances: Always Allison and Speak Fondly (Best Odds: $4.40). I am going to go with Speak Fondly. She was well fancied to win on debut in the Gimcrack back in the Spring and ran well when third to Calaverite. She loomed to win that, but it looked as though she hit the front and just had no idea what to do after. Has since been spelled, and has looked most impressive in a couple of barrier trials. She is well fancied to win the Slipper, so if you like her here, have something on her in the Slipper, because her odds will shorten.
Big Danger: Chris Waller isn’t known as a successful trainer of two year olds, but he looks to have a sharp filly in the shape of Always Allison (Best Odds: $3.10). She made her debut on February 4 and absolutely toyed with her rivals, winning by a space. Query is that she didn’t beat much and the time was a second slower than the other 1150m race on the program, but she looked most impressive in a trial win at Rosehill recently, and she has the experience around the tricky Warwick Farm circuit, which is an advantage.
Roughie: Mowgli (Best Odds: $13.00) ran an eye catching debut second to Italy at Canterbury, settling last in the five horse field before shoving into the clear and winding up strongly to just miss, possibly throwing the race away by racing greenly. There looks to be a stack of upside with her, and most importantly she is trained on the track, and Warwick Farm trained runners have a lethal record on their home track.
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Race Four (2:55pm) : Surround Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Recent history overall suggests that the best filly wins the Surround Stakes. The best filly in this race is First Seal (Best Odds: $1.95), by a fair margin. She was enormous in the Light Fingers given she got badly checked midrace, and that cost her the win, though the winner was impressive. Hopefully she won’t be too far away from the gate and with the run under her belt now, she should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: The winner of the Light Fingers was Adrift (Best Odds: $7.50), and despite her $41 starting price, she was most impressive for Gai Waterhouse. In her first prep she showed no gate speed at all, but come Light Fingers, she settled in the 1/1, appearing to be bolting. She’s a Zabeel, so she will only improve with fitness and distance increase. Smaller track may be a slight disadvantage for her given she is a big type, but she did win here over the mile at the end of her last prep.
Roughie: Winx (Best Odds: $9.00), aside from First Seal, was the best of the beaten brigade in the Light Fingers. She got a long way back in the run and was forced to go back to the rail, and she was one of only a couple of runners to have made up ground there. She’s a classy filly, the first up run was good and she wasn’t far off First Seal second up during the Spring.
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Race Five (3:35pm) : Liverpool City Cup 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Red Excitement (Best Odds: $4.00) clearly on top. It’s hard to go against him after his two wins from as many runs this time in, starting off at Rosehill and leading all the way with 61kg before going to the Chester Manifold at Flemington and sitting off a good speed to let down powerfully late and grab victory close to home. Why he is clearly on top is his barrier trial win at Rosehill, where he won by 13 lengths under triple wraps from Avdulla. I am very keen on him here.
Big Danger: On reputation and hype, I’ll put Pornichet (Best Odds: $5.00) in as the danger. He was excellent in two runs during the Spring, starting off with a close up fourth to Hucklebuck on Derby Day before going to Sandown and comfortably winning the Sandown Stakes. His two trials leading up to this have been questionable, in particular his latest trial behind Cosmic Endeavour where he came off the bit quickly and didn’t quicken. Class wise, he’ll be hard to beat, but from a betting perspective, I think I’d rather watch.
Roughie: As said earlier, locals have a remarkable record on Chipping Norton Day, so having that in mind, Territory (Best Odds: $8.00) has to rate as a chance. He has been settling just off the speed at his past few starts, including last time out at Randwick in the Southern Cross when third to Heart Testa. The booking of Pumper suggests that the connections want the horse to be ridden more aggressively, and there isn’t much early speed here, so he could roll forward and control from the front, and the 1300m start does suit leaders given there is only one turn.
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Race Six (4:15pm) : Liverpool Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: You have to go with Contributer (Best Odds: $2.70). His Apollo Stakes (1400m) triumph was outstanding, albeit he was given a sweet ride my McDonald and was on the right part of the track. Still, it was a dominant display, and he should have plenty of room for improvement off that. The tight turning track is a query, but the class is there and he just has to go on top because the first up win was too good.
Big Danger: Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $5.50) was great also in the Apollo given she got a long way back in the run and was forced to duck and weave her way through the field before going back to the inside, which wasn’t the place to be, yet she still ran on strongly for fourth. Her lone run here resulted in an unlucky placing in the 2014 Surround, and second up last time she was excellent in the George Main behind Sacred Falls. Good form to be a serious threat here.
Roughie: The speed map, like in the Apollo, suggests that Ninth Legion (Best Odds: $10.00) will get a very comfortable lead here. He got that in the Apollo and stuck on so well when second to Contributor. WFA isn’t his go, but he gets a soft lead here, loves firm ground and his last Warwick Farm came last year in the Liverpool Cup when third to Terravista and El Roca. He will give you a great sight at odds.
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Race Seven (4:55pm) : Guy Walter Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Arinosa (Best Odds: $67.00). She hasn’t run a decent race since Cup Week 2013, and her first up run behind Catkins was terrible, but she looked very sharp in a recent trial win at Rosehill, and was made a blackbooker on that performance. She draws gate one and Avdulla is back on. Last time she drew a decent gate in Sydney with Avdulla riding, she won the Group ll Premiere Stakes (1200m), beating the likes of Famous Seamus and Pinwheel. I’ll take a chance with her each way based on the impressive trial performance.
Big Danger: I think Cosmic Endeavour (Best Odds: $5.50) got a pass mark in the Triscay. She was first up with 60kg and was forced to sit wide all the way yet she still ran on well at the end. She should improve significantly off that and the weights are more compressed now, so the better class mares are well suited.
Roughie: Forgiving All Salsa (Best Odds: $126.00) for her first up failure at Canterbury given she was back and the track had a dynamite leaders bias that afternoon. Her trial leading up to that was outstanding and she now gets to the minimum. Does rise in grade, but she has a lethal turn of foot and is a definite outside chance.
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Race Eight (5:35pm) : Cal Rei Handicap (80) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Le Cordon Bleu (Best Odds: $3.70) on top. He has strung together two impressive wins from as many runs this time in, both at Canterbury, starting off with a win on Australia before being ridden more aggressively in a four horse field to lead all the way. He has shown versatility, so from the good gate, Tommy Berry has plenty of options. Looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: Floral Insight (Best Odds: $16.00) was beautifully placed and ridden to win over 1150m here two back before going to Canterbury last Friday night and being no match for the very impressive Grand Condor. He does seem to love racing here, and Priscilla Schmidt, who won on him two back, takes the ride.
Roughie: Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $14.00) returns to his home track for the first time in ages, but he does tend to save his best for his local turf. He ran on very well, again, last week at Rosehill when third to the in form Just A Girl. He hopefully won’t be too far away from the inside gate and gets in well at the weights after the claim for Brodie Loy.
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BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Exosphere
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Contributer
VALUE: Race Seven Number 5 Arinosa
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 10
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13, 16, 17
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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