2/7/2011 Vic Big6 preview, tips and selections

The big6 for Victorian punters on Saturday is on races 3-8 at Moonee Valley. Here is my $20 strategy.

Form Guide

Leg 1 – Really hard race to kick things off with at least six or seven winning hopes. I’d put in General Truce, Marmaa, Punctuate, Jugahlation, Turiff and She’s Got Gears, who is having her first run for new trainer Mark Kavanagh and has to be respected.

Leg 2 – Three hopes for me. Deliver The Dream sits on the speed and just fights like a bulldog. The key factor in these apprentice races is that 90% of the time, the best apprentice wins the race and I think Ashley Thompson is the best out of the ones engaged here. Jalsah was given a Brad Rawiller special to win at Morphettville. Now that she has won again, that might be the confidence boost to keep her going on towards winning again here. Fashion Black was very good first up on the Geelong Synthetic and does have plenty of upside on her rivals.

Leg 3 – Got it between Ariarni and Rue Maple. Ariarni probably wasn’t that comfortable in the going last start after winning well at Caulfield. She has drawn perfect for Olly and will get the run of the race. She looks great value. Rue Maple is very honest and deserves to win one of these mares races. Unlucky last start behind Mid Summer Music. This race is much weaker and this looks a good race for her to breakthrough.

Leg 4 – The barrier makes it hard for Philda, but he is a course specialist and he looks well weighted against a bunch of fairly average horses. Prepared to give Jungle Ruler a chance purely on the fact that there doesn’t seem to be much speed here and that Rodd jumps on and he rode the horse a treat to win during the carnival at Betfair Park last year. The kiwi visitor Spare A Fortune is clearly the best horse in the race and is weighted to win it, but there have to be question marks about how well he travelled coming from NZ and that it is his first run around the tight Moonee Valley circuit. Also include By The Way, Carnero, Mr Make Believe and Epic Dragon.

Leg 5 – Very tricky race. Black And Bent showed enough when resuming to say that he has come back well and could surprise with a win here. Riveted is always thereabouts in these races and has no weight on his back. Pass Me By was strong when winning at Betfair Park last time out and looks well suited to repeat. Dance With Her is genuine and races best at Moonee Valley, plus Damien Lane is riding so well at present.

Leg 6 – This looks to be Beyond Pardon’s race to lose. Forgive and forget last Saturday when he was pestered in the lead and weakened over 1420m. Back to 1200m here, Rodd jumps on, should control the race by either leading or sitting outside the speed and the horses he is up against here aren’t in the best of form. On his best form, he wins and wins well.

Leg 1: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8

Leg 2: 1, 6, 9

Leg 3: 2, 3

Leg 4: 1, 3, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14

Leg 5: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8

Leg 6: 3

A $20 investment = 1.58% of the dividend if successful.

Written by Adam Page