A $25,067 jackpot will entice Nsw punters to have a crack at the big6 on Saturday which is on the last three races at Rosehill and Moonee Vallety. Here is my $20 strategy.
Leg 1 – It’s hard to knock Title. Ploughed through the woeful conditions to win two back before blitzing a somewhat stronger field in the Takeover Target Stakes last start. 1400m looks perfect, drawn well and he just looks well placed again. I could find only two other dangers. Altered Boy flies fresh and in the wet. His trial behind Speeding To Win was a good indicator he will be hard to beat. Recoup De Fortune has a habit of firing himself up and leaving nothing in the tank late. If he relaxes in the run and gets cover, he will go close.
Leg 2 – The barrier makes it hard for Philda, but he is a course specialist and he looks well weighted against a bunch of fairly average horses. Prepared to give Jungle Ruler a chance purely on the fact that there doesn’t seem to be much speed here and that Rodd jumps on and he rode the horse a treat to win during the carnival at Betfair Park last year. The kiwi visitor Spare A Fortune is clearly the best horse in the race and is weighted to win it, but there have to be question marks about how well he travelled coming from NZ and that it is his first run around the tight Moonee Valley circuit. Also include By The Way, Carnero, Mr Make Believe and Epic Dragon.
Leg 3 – Looks to be good speed engaged here so look for value. I think one that is crazy odds is Speed Dubai. Ran a strong race in the Wagga Town Plate before a solid second behind Onthelookout on the Kensington track. That form looks good because that horse performed very well last Saturday and he is running in the Civic Stakes. 2000m won’t be an issue and he handles soft ground. Winning Glory was given a gem of a ride by Nathan Berry to win last start. He will get the gun run prove hard to run down. Also throw in Carnegies Cruzin, Our Cannavaro, Status Quo and Wazn.
Leg 4 – Very tricky race. Black And Bent showed enough when resuming to say that he has come back well and could surprise with a win here. Riveted is always thereabouts in these races and has no weight on his back. Pass Me By was strong when winning at Betfair Park last time out and looks well suited to repeat. Dance With Her is genuine and races best at Moonee Valley, plus Damien Lane is riding so well at present.
Leg 5 – Foxstar ran a really nice race when resuming behind My Vegas. She should be fitter and looks well placed in this somewhat of an average race. Dangers look to be Romanus and Brian’s Honour at value. I couldn’t make a case for any of the others here. They are either out of form, resuming or looking for further.
Leg 6 – This looks to be Beyond Pardon’s race to lose. Forgive and forget last Saturday when he was pestered in the lead and weakened over 1420m. Back to 1200m here, Rodd jumps on, should control the race by either leading or sitting outside the speed and the horses he is up against here aren’t in the best of form. On his best form, he wins and wins well.
Leg 1: 2, 3, 12
Leg 2: 1, 3, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14
Leg 3: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10
Leg 4: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg 5: 3, 9, 14
Leg 6: 3
A $20 investment = 1.05% of the dividend if successful
Written by Adam Page
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