26/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Cox Plate day

The Cox Plate (2040m) is regarded by many as the best race in Australia and the 2019 edition rolls around this Saturday at Moonee Valley with a full field, the first time sine 2015. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Been impressed with the Flemington jumpouts of 2 Hilflager (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) and confident he can run well here. He’s had a couple of jumpouts at home and has looked pretty good each time he has stepped out behind some seemingly nice types. Not sure there are any standouts here and the stable usually get them right for the early 2YO races, so keen to see how he goes.

All you can do is win and that is what 9 Mildred (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) has done in her career to date, winning 2/2, both wins coming down the Flemington straight, debuting with a narrow win over 900m before stepping up to 1000m and she was pretty impressive on speed and safely holding her rivals on the line. Race experience is such a huge advantage and she looks a real professional.

5 Itzhot (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) has had two decent jump-outs where he wasn’t really tested and is well bred being out of a listed winner and by Snitzel. Likely to get back which is a bit of a concern for these two-year-old races at The Valley. If they go really hard throughout i think he could be the horse to finish over the top of them late.

Every man and their dog…cat…bird…frog…I think even Noah has taken time out from building the ark to say that 4 Esperance (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) will win this. He’s a talented animal who has a good overall record. He hasn’t raced since Stakes Day during Cup Week last year when a fast finishing third to Order Of Command after getting a mile back in the run. Has looked sharp in a couple of trials leading in and was close up at this track/distance last year on Manikato Night. Hard to beat.

1 All Over Bosanova (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) has had a few homes right throughout her career but has done some nice things with Phillip Stokes. She comes through the Apache Cat Classic when off speed and chasing hard in the straight when fourth to Tavisan. She’s a short course specialist so like her at 955m and she does tend to race best when near the speed and rolling.

2 Holbein (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) for me. Steve Richards trains this gelding, who can be hot and cold at times, but his best is certainly good enough to figure in the finish. 955m is short of his best but his recent jumpout has been quite encouraging and he has placed in both career outings at the track. He likely lands on speed, he’s tough and should prove hard to run down.

6 Beauty Bolt (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a talented filly for the Grahame Begg stable who was disappointing two back in the Jim Moloney before going to the Edward Manifold at Flemington where she got back near last in the run and finished off strongly to run fifth to Moonlight Maid. I reckon she’s back on track after that run and if she can repeat the dose, she’ll go close.

1 Fascino (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) has only won the one race from six outings, but her runs have been better than what that record suggests. She comes through the Edward Manifold where Zahra gave her a lovely steer off the speed and she was there to win, but had no answers late for the finale produced by Moonlight Maid. This looks a really winnable race for her and has the form.

Big fan of 4 Aspect Ratio (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) and she’s one of the leading chances for John Sargent when it comes to the Oaks. She won her maiden last time out at Warwick Farm and there was a bit of quality in the win. Was able to sit just off the speed and looked to travel well before Atkins gave her clear air and the race was over as soon as the button was pushed. Confident she runs well here.

3 Villami (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) is flying and is knocking on the door to win a Stakes race. Beat all bar Libertini two back in the Furious before racing at this track/distance in the Scarborough when wide no cover on speed and fighting hard, only going down narrowly to Loving Gaby. Hopefully the rub of the green goes her way and she can get a blacktype win next to her name.

5 Free Thrills (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) has returned in excellent order for the Corstens team. Resumed with a sharp maiden win at Tatura in what has turned out to be a good form reference. Then went to Ballarat when a little unlucky not to beat Viking Warrior after getting held up at a vital stage. Been given a little fresh and her jumpout last week at Flemington was quite good.

10 Bronski Girl (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) deserves a crack at some blacktype. Did plenty of work in the run two back at Mildura but was far too good for her rivals in a maiden which has produced a few winners. She then went to Donald when backed off the map and after getting a soft lead, it was pretty much game over and bolted in. Toughest test to date, but she’s a filly in a purple patch.

Pretty keen here on 1 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $3.00). This bloke had trialled up enormous prior to racing in the Blue Sapphire last Wednesday where I thought Melham rode a poor race on him. Jumped well and could have landed on speed, but was restrained for cover, got pulling hard, then got into an awful spot and his race was done on the turn. Good record at the Valley, and fitter, should take some beating.

6 Heyington Station (Bet Now: $9.50) is heading in the right direction for Phillip Stokes. Spanked them to win the maiden two back at Moe before going to Mornington where he was a notable drifter in betting late but he continued on from Moe and recorded another sharp win and was strong to the line. Hardest test to date here, but I think he can measure up and run a positive race.

8 Three Beans (Bet Now: $6.50) is a son of Deep Field who has had a couple of career outings and looked pretty good each time he has stepped out. Sharp debut winner on the Ballarat Synthetic before being spelled. Resumed at this track/distance when leading and giving a good kick but just felt the pinch late when second to Ambleve. Fitter and in the right stable, so giving him another chance.

3 Serious Liaison (Bet Now: $7.00) looks a handy prospect for Danny O’Brien. Far from disgraced two back in the Derby Trial behind Adelaide Ace before stepping back to the mile last Wednesday where Olly gave him a lovely ride just off the speed before getting clear air out wide and finishing best to beat a handy one in Oscar Boy. Up to 2040m I like and he does have a turn of foot.

9 Moonlight Maid… (Bet Now: $4.60) gee I’m filthy I dropped off her in the Edward Manifold. Was really keen on her first up at Bendigo but she was wide no cover and didn’t come on at all behind Miami Bound. Then was sent around bolters odds in the Edward Manifold where she was back, ridden cold, and produced a brilliant finale to get the job done. She’ll eat up 2000m and is a live chance.

4 Fabulanski (Bet Now: $35.00) is the interesting runner. Just looked in need of the run fresh in the Danehill behind Dalasan before being have a little freshen up and racing over the mile at Caulfield last Wednesday when doing work out wide and jut fading out of the finish late behind Serious Liaison. He looks a stayer, so up in trip I like and stable did win this race last year.

Hard to get away from 6 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $2.80). He ran in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday where he was quite buzzed up in the gates and in turn missed the kick by a few lengths, then had absolutely no luck in the straight and should have finished much closer behind Mer De Glace. Gets the sweet trip from the gate and really, if he’s come through that run well, he’s better than these.

4 Downdraft (Bet Now: $4.40) is the X factor. Joseph O’Brien trains this galloper and he needs to win in order to get into the Melbourne Cup. Some are jumping up and down about his win two back, and visually, yes, very good, but the form has been rubbish. The St Leger Trial run following was good behind some good class horse flesh. If he is to win, he needs to be a truly run 2500m, because his staying prowess will come to the fore.

2 Ventura Storm (Bet Now: $11.00) won this race last year and I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if he repeated the dose. He got the A1 run in transit to win last year off some below average form and once again, he gets the near identical set up. He comes through the Herbert Power where the stop/start tempo didn’t suit and couldn’t sprint when it came to the crunch. Not ignoring him given the set up he gets.

Each way, going the way of 9 Pacodali (Bet Now: $10.00) for the in form Lindsey Smith stable. Had his first run for the stable in the Weekend Hussler at Caulfield where he was unwanted in betting but really liked the way he found the line late off the moderate clip to run fourth to Rox The Castle. Has a stack of upside one would assume and he can run well second up, plus he likes the Valley.

I think the key to 10 Sikandarabad (Bet Now: $5.50) is remaining at the mile. Not sure 2000m+ is his go in life as he gets older, but his last start effort in the Toorak was a ripper. Got back and held up before getting clear and finding the line strongly to run fourth to Fierce Impact. If he reproduce that here, you’d have to think he’ll take some beating in a winnable race.

5 Cliff’s Edge (Bet Now: $10.00) saves his best for the Valley so a decent run is on the cards. Went at a solid tempo in the Toorak last time out and gave a reasonable kick under Johnny Allen but couldn’t quite finish it off when sixth to Fierce Impact. Impressive winner of this race last year and while the depth is stronger in 2019, he has the right racing pattern and a liking for the track.

It’s either going to take a special performance from a rival to beat 9 Lys Gracieux (Bet Now: $3.30), or she’s off her game. Her last 12 months has been top shelf, winning a couple of majors in Japan and has been very close up in two key Sha Tin majors behidn top class company. Last start at Hanshin, her turn of foot was just lethal, and did it on speed. Gee she’ll take some beating here and am really keen on her.

8 Danceteria (Bet Now: $19.00) is the interesting runner. I’ve been on him for a few months so my eyes will be on him mostly. His overseas form is A1. Two back in the Eclipse, he was the only horse to take ground off Enable at the finish. He then went to a German Group l where he hated the sloppy going but class got him home. If he runs to his best, he’ll take a power of beating here I think.

14 Castelvecchio (Bet Now: $8.50) looks primed to run a beauty. The Cox Plate is always more intriguing when a 3YO is in and he is indeed that. He comes through the Spring Champion where you could make a little case that he should have won. He did have the back of Shadow Hero but Persan fell into his lap and lost a couple of lengths, with the final margin being only a length. He’s hard fit and will be strong at the end of 2040m I suspect. Also want to mention 13 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $16.00). She is back on track big time I think. Her win in the Hill Stakes at Randwick was the performance/win of the day IMO. Samadoubt got an absolute picnic in front and got it run to suit himself, but Verry Elleegant was able to sustain an 800m run from the back, doing the work herself, to win. She just needs juice in the track and she’ll be competitive in whatever she contests.

5 Amangiri (Bet Now: $3.00) looks set to peak here third up. Just looked in need of the run fresh at Rosehill behind Ranier before going to the Angst at Randwick where she led and gave a good kick, but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Nettoyer. She’s third up here, so she should be hard fit, ready to go, lands on speed, down in the weights…gee she’ll take some beating.

4 Music Bay (Bet Now: $6.00) has been really god in two runs back from a spell. Resumed with a solid third at Caulfield behind My Pendant before being freshened up and racing in the Paris Lane at Flemington when doing work in the run yet kept on and was good in defeat behind Rox The Castle, who franked the form next start. Third up at the mile against the mares, she’s likeable.

11 Vanuatu (Bet Now: $11.00) rises a fair bit in depth/grade, but I reckon she’s earned a crack. Resumed on Cranbourne Cup Day where she was back off a slow speed and had to get going on the turn, sustaining a long run, but was strongest to the line in winning and an impressive return to the track. She’ll appreciate the mile and while I doubt she wins, she’s one for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 5 Amangiri

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Condo’s Express

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 9 Pacodali

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 4, 6, 7

Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 9, 10

Leg Three: 8, 9, 13, 14

Leg Four: 5

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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