A golfing term used in tournaments is ‘moving day’. That term fits this Saturday at Caulfield, with feature races being the Preludes to the Caulfield and Thousand Guineas, as well as a couple of Group l races, both carrying $400,000 prizemoney; the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) and the Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:25pm) : Pancare Foundation Plate (90) 1100m:
Back Me: Going to take a chance with the talented Sydney mare Atmospherical (Best Odds: $7.00). She resumed in the Concorde and despite not being suited on the wet track, she worked home well late to finish fifth to Shiraz in a strong form race. Has to carry the grandstand, but she has loads of class on these the claim for Brodie Loy is a big tick.
Big Danger: Catch That Cat (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed over 1200m at the Valley and she was fantastic when second to all the way winner Tawteen, who had it too good in front and was given a lovely on speed steer. Catch That Cat has an excellent second up record and does tend to save her best runs early on in a preparation.
Roughie: Nautical (Best Odds: $19.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Nikki Burke. This mare can be awfully frustrating to follow, but it’s interesting to note that she comes here fresh with no trials and she normally does have a trial leading up to her return to racing. On her day, she is a Stakes class mare, but she hasn’t won for a while. She’s the watch horse.
Race Two (12:55pm) : Inglis Cup 2000m:
Back Me: Gee this is a poor field for a $250,000 race. Got to pick one, and I think the winner will be Kansas Sunflower (Best Odds: $3.00), who worked home strongly without much luck last start behind a real up and comer in the Velox. Her form prior to that was excellent and though I have doubts over her running 2000m, she strikes a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Muraqaba (Best Odds: $3.20) is the query runner. This Anthony Cummings runner is unbeaten in three runs to date, including last Wednesday at Canterbury where he just savaged the line from the back to win very impressively. On potential, he is the best horse and should win, but the weight scale just sways me towards Kansas Sunflower.
Roughie: Hell On Earth (Best Odds: $26.00) steps up to 2000m after running over the mile at Benalla just over a week ago, and he was completely luckless in the straight when running fourth to Classy Ruby, getting badly chopped out in the straight when he looked as though he was going to burst through and win.
Race Three (1:30pm) : Le Pine Funerals Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: Really good sprint race. Leaning towards Hard Stride (Best Odds: $15.00), who resumes here for the Ellerton/Zahra team. He hasn’t raced since early March when running fourth to Amorino over 1400m at Flemington. He has a very good first up record and he has looked sharp in recent jump outs at Flemington, so he looks ready.
Big Danger: Kuro (Best Odds: $5.50) made his debut for Team Freedman in the McEwen at the Valley where he was unlucky when finishing eighth to Chautauqua, the best sprinter in Australia. He looked sharp in jump outs prior, so he is loving life under the care of the masters, and with better luck, he should take some beating here.
Roughie: The Quarterback (Best Odds: $11.00) is a talented sprinter for Robbie Griffiths who ran also resumed in the McEwen and he worked home pretty well late without winning when finishing seventh, beaten four lengths. He has a booming finish on him, and the hot tempo will really suit his racing pattern, and he is the knockout hope.
Race Four (2:10pm) : Italktravel Harry White Classic 2400m:
Back Me: Tricky race to sort out. At First Sight (Best Odds: $8.50) for me here. He was three weeks between runs when running over 2500m at Flemington last time out when working home strongly to finish fourth to impressive winner Albonetti. Does get a slight weight pull on that horse here, and there is more upside with him compared to Albonetti.
Big Danger: The best horse in the race is clearly Excess Knowledge (Best Odds: $3.90). He wasn’t far off Mourinho in the P.B. Lawrence before running just a fair seventh to Magnapal in the Heatherlie, who has franked the form. Yet to race beyond 1700m, but you really can’t put anything beyond Gai Waterhouse, and as I said, in terms of brilliance, this horse is the best in this field.
Roughie: Epsom Hill (Best Odds: $13.00) steps up in grade after running over 2500m last Wednesday at Pakenham where he looked the winner with about 300m to go but just tired late when fourth to impressive winner Annus Mirabilis, beaten 1.5L. This will be his fourth run this prep now, so he should be just about ready to show his best.
Race Five (2:45pm) : Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude 1400m:
Back Me: I’ve already got a bet on Pasadena Girl (Best Odds: $5.00) to win the Thousand Guineas, but I think think she can take care of them here. Her run in the Atlantic Jewel at the Valley was just fantastic I thought, storming home from last to run second to Stay With Me. She gets a 1.5kg turn around on that filly and has more upside, plus is on her home track, as well as having Group l form at this distance and beyond.
Big Danger: Stay With Me (Best Odds: $4.00) was given a lovely steer from Dwayne Dunn in that race mentioned above, sitting wide with cover before letting down with a brilliant finishing burst to win quite comfortably. She has the brilliance on these. Normally that covers fillies who may struggle to run out a trip, but she does give the impression she will handle the rise up to this trip and the mile.
Roughie: Miss Gunpowder (Best Odds: $4.40) ran a beauty in the Quezette behind star filly Petits Filous before going back to Adelaide and winning like a star, albeit against much easier company, but it was against the older horses and she was giving weight to most, and that effort should not be underestimated. Philip Stokes knows when to travel runners, and this filly is all class.
Race Six (3:25pm) : BECK Caulfield Guineas Prelude 1400m:
Back Me: I’m keen on Ready For Victory (Best Odds: $3.50) to win the Caulfield Guineas, so I am really keen to see how he goes here. He probably should be unbeaten this time in. He got badly held up when a close up second to Gold Symphony in the McNeil before getting chopped out at a crucial stage in the Danehill behind Kinglike. He will love the rise to 1400m and getting back to his home track.
Big Danger: The very interesting runner is the kiwi raider Dal Cielo (Best Odds: $21.00). He is a classy animal for Murray Baker who won the Group l Diamond Stakes on Derby Day at Ellerslie. He resumed in the Breeders Stakes at Ruakaka and the bad barrier beat him when fourth to The Justice League, beaten just under a length. The stable has a big opinion of this horse, and they don’t travel them for a holiday.
Roughie: Metallic Crown (Best Odds: $21.00) is the Chris Waller nominated runner here. He had nominated with both this one and Press Statement, but with the latter in Sydney, the one on the up, Metallic Crown, comes here, and he should run an honest race off the back of a strong effort to win the Ming Dynasty at Randwick a few weeks back. Form out of that race has held up and any Chris Waller at the moment has to be respected enormously.
Race Seven (4:05pm) : Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: I’m keen on Contributer (Best Odds: $4.60) to bounce back. Just forget he went around in the Dato Tan. He didn’t handle the Moonee Valley track. I’ve put the line through him as a Cox Plate contender for that reason, but there are plenty of other Group l races away from the Valley, starting off here, and I am confident he can get the job done.
Big Danger: ‘The Lion Of Longford’, The Cleaner (Best Odds: $6.00), is just one of the great racing stories. The Tassie champ has been fantastic in two runs this time in, starting off with a close second to Mourinho in the P.B. Lawrence before making it back-to-back wins in the Dato Tan, aided by an absolute gem of a steer from Noel Callow. He will be leading again and we know that he is very hard to get past, and he does have the fitness edge on Contributer.
Roughie: Former Hong Kong galloper Dibayani (Best Odds: $13.00) has been excellent in two runs down under. He ran a close up third to Mourinho in the P.B. Lawrence before going to the Dato Tan and he looked a little lost on the turn, but he balanced up and was strong late to run third to The Cleaner. He will love the rise in trip and getting back onto a bigger track.
Race Eight (4:45pm) : Anthea Crawford Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: It’s really hard to tip against Disposition (Best Odds: $3.70). His first up win at Flemington was just arrogant and he did it with seemingly a heap of improvement left in him. He is a star and I think the $3.80 on offer is a steal. Only bad luck will beat him IMO and he looks one of the best bets of the weekend.
Big Danger: Stratum Star (Best Odds: $7.00) tried his guts out in the Memsie and at the 200m mark he looked the winner, but he just lacked the killer punch at the end and had to settle for third to Boban and Entirely Platinum. Bit easier here and he is beautifully weighted. Definite threat if the top tip is off his game.
Roughie: You find it hard to leave out Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $16.00). He is just bomb proof at the moment, winning four on the bounce, with two of those coming at this track/distance, including last start when beating home a couple of runners, Jacquinot Bay and Awesome Rock, who both ran well at Stakes level recently. He should lead here and prove very tough to run down.
Race Nine (5:20pm) : The Cup Club Handicap 1700m:
Back Me: Looks a good race for talented mare Iggimacool (Best Odds: $4.40). She closed off very well in the Heatherlie behind Magnapal, who has since franked the form. Iggimacool then went to this distance at Flemington and she was given a pearler from Bossy to win with real class and authority. More depth here, but she looks as though she can win better races than this, and I am confident she can get the job done here.
Big Danger: Kenjorwood (Best Odds: $6.50) drops a bit in class after running an absolute beauty in the Dato Tan at Moonee Valley when fourth to The Cleaner, beaten just over three lengths. He has a really good record at this track and at this distance, he’s fit and the stable is having a really good run at the moment under trying circumstances.
Roughie: Jacquinot Bay (Best Odds: $21.00) ran a ripper over 1400m here first up when second to Charmed Harmony before going to that Flemington race Iggimacool won, and he just petered out of it late and settled for seventh. He doesn’t normally produce anything positive second up, so I am prepared to forgive him for that and third up now, he should be ready.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Disposition
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 Contributer
VALUE: Race Three Number 3 Hard Stride
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 12, 13, 14
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 8
Leg Three: 12
Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 9, 13
$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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