With only a few showers predicted to hit Brisbane, we should have a good track at Doomben on Saturday in what looks to be an ordinary meeting on paper. Here is my preview of Race 4, a set weights Class 6 over 1630m (the rail is out 6m).
There appears to be only moderate speed in this race with Fiori, Nortepoppy and possibly Striking Rose pushing forward early. Here are my thoughts on each runner.
Fiori: Northern NSW galloper who hasn’t won for a while and needs the sting out of the track. Despite the wide barrier, he may get a cosy run behind a soft speed but is not suited at the set weights even with the claim for Mitchell Wood.
Nortepoppy: Had a short freshen up for this after mainly racing over 2000m last campaign. Would need to have improved to test these.
Mr Nicholas: An enigma of a horse who saluted in a Class 5 last start. Needs a genuine tempo to figure in the finish, which he probably won’t get here and rises in weight under the conditions which is not ideal.
Mr Shadow Boxer: Steps up to the mile here after winning over 1200m first up. His form over this trip was solid last campaign and he should go close here providing he handles the rise in distance. The booking of Larry Cassidy is a strong lead.
Regal Gaze: His first up statistics don’t read well but he occasionally runs on well when fresh. One to include in your multiplies.
Just a Piccolo: His record at Doomben is fairly abysmal as he requires plenty of luck by getting back in his races. I doubt he’ll get the necessary tempo to be running these down but has more class than most.
Joyeux Joy: Had a tough trip last start but I believe she’s vulnerable at the mile anyway. Better suited to mares grade.
Banana Kick: Certainly capable of winning this but I get the feeling he’s not racing at his best yet and may want the sting out.
Craquelure: Another horse that gets back and probably looking for further now. Don’t leave out of multiples.
Go Forest Go: Has started on unsuitable heavy tracks in its last two starts. Providing he has recovered from those runs, this is his ideal distance to return to form.
Striking Rose: Not enough class to win here
Glorietta: Hasn’t had much luck lately up against her own sex although the rise in distance suits. Probably needs the sting out to beat these.
Selections:
I’m going with Mr Shadow Boxer (4) on top in a very open race. Appears to get a gun run from barrier three and doesn’t have to beat much here. You can get $6.50 at the moment which I think is reasonable value. I think Go Forest Go (10) is the biggest danger on a firm surface but there will be a few horses like Craquelure (9) and Banana Kick (8) flying late. You can almost throw half the field in to fill the other placings.
Written by Peter Addley
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